Looking Through A Glass Darkly: The Future of The Market and Your Investments

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Looking Through A Glass DarklyThe Future of The
Market and Your Investments

• A Presentation by
• John Mauldin,
• Author of Bulls Eye Investing
• And the Editor of Thoughts from the Frontline

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The More Things Change
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Three Things That Will Not Change
A. The Innovation Cycle
B. Secular Bull and Bear Markets
C. Human Psychology
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• The
• Innovation
• Cycle

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The Innovation S-Curve
Market Penetration
Time
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Diagram of Dents Innovation Cycle
Market Penetration
Time
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Some Ruminations on the Character of a Secular
Bear Market
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• The race is not to the swift, nor the battle to
  the strong.

But that is the way to the Bet.
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They all start with periods of high price to
earnings (P/E) ratios
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Markets are Volatile and Tricky Little DEVILS
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The negative impact of compounding
Giving back the good times
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Taxpayer Nominal
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Taxpayer Real
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Human Psychology

• Just a few examples of our behavior patterns
  which drive the markets

- And Drive Us Crazy
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A. The Home Field Advantage
B. Confirmation Bias
C. Hindsight Bias
D. Extrapolation - Projection vs.
Interference
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What Will Change?
A. The Pace of Innovation
B. The Pace of Globalization
C. The Shift From A US-Centric World to
a More Balanced World
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The Pace of Innovation

• The Shakeout from the Information Age

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Railroad/Industrial Economy Industries
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Mass-Market Economy Industries
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Demography is Destiny

• The Pace and Shift of Globalization

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Fundamental Restructuring
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The Shift to the East is an Economic, Political
and Demographic

• Governments are the Problem,
• not the Solution

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The Change is the Demise of Centralized
Governments and the Rise of the Sovereign
Individual