Fusion Team Briefing

1
Fusion Team Briefing

• March, 2009

2
Fusion Team Background

• Created as an action from the Rainfall and River
  Forecast Summit in St. Louis (Oct 2008)
• Reviewed tri-agency (USACE, NWS, USGS) findings
  from Midwest Flood of 2008
• Made note of actions needed to improve forecasts
• Made note of requests from customers
• Cited need for tri-agency fusion cell to
  address action items

3
Mission

• Develop a process for improving the accuracy of
  rainfall/river forecasts within the Mississippi
  River Basin utilizing the expertise and
  experience of the cells member agencies (USACE,
  USGS, NWS).
• The Fusion Cell will produce a living document to
  address the current status of the rainfall and
  river forecasting within the Mississippi Valley
  (including tributaries) and develop a plan for
  improvements that can be made given the current
  science, manpower and level of funding. The
  ultimate goal is to optimize the accuracy and
  utility of the forecasts provided to the Public
  in accordance with all applicable regulations.

4
Main items cited that need to be addressed

• Accurate data available concurrently to agencies
• Rating curve extensions
• Co-develop HEC-RAS models for the Mississippi and
  Illinois Rivers
• USACE/USGS liaisons at RFCs during major floods
• River forecast verification

5
Main items cited that need to be addressed

• Not meeting the expectations/needs of the
  customer
• No rain forecast
• 7 day forecast
• Listen to the customer!!!

6
Cross Training

• USACE-NWS
• Add two days at end of Forecasters Meeting
  (June-July timeframe)
• Start at upper Mississippi (with Missouri input)
• Missouri River offices participate while working
  down and have their presentations before St.
  Louiss
• Cross-train NWS RFC/USACE personnel on USGS
  discharge methods and data processing techniques
• Help RFCs in processing USGS data for forecasts
• Start with LMRFC, May 2009
• Evaluate training

7
Cross Training

• USACE/NWS/RIAC
• At a few points along Mississippi River (to
  start), RIAC will make presentation on their
  operations and how forecasts are used.
• Presentation followed by short barge trip and
  open discussion with navigators
• Evaluate training

8
Large-scale Flood Exercises - Playbook

• USACE is looking at their scheduled hurricane and
  flood exercises to include tri-agency exercises
• MVD Flood Workshop first week of March 2009?
• Develop joint exercise to be conducted at
• Annual River Forecasters meeting and/or
• Annual Tri-Agency Water Control Meeting
• Ben Weiger (NWS/SRH) creating sub-team to develop
  playbook
• Will include POC list

9
Zero-QPF forecast (RFN)

• Provide RIAC and other customers with a river
  forecast minimum stage to meet the NWS mission
  for enhancement of the national economy.
• NCRFC/MBRFC/LMRFC will QC output from Ensemble
  QPF forecasts to produce separate SHEF-encoded
  text product (RFN), River Forecast Minimum
  (projected date, May 1, 2009 )
• Depends on
• Satisfactory implementation of a new graphical
  software at MBRFC (projected date, April 15)
• Creation of the new product per NWS policy
  procedures (projected date, April 15, 2009)

10
Co-develop HEC-RAS models for mainstem rivers

• USACE detail a hydraulic engineer to RFC to work
  with an NWS hydrologist to build and calibrate
  models that use NWS hydrologic model output
  hydrographs as input to the HEC-RAS models.
• NWS gains in the hydraulic engineering expertise
  transfer
• USACE gains expertise in the NWS hydrologic
  modeling and forecast system.
•  A formalized plan needs to be developed.

11
USACE/USGS liaisons at RFCs during major floods

• RFC coordinate directly with USACE/USGS or
  through the Regional Operations Center (ROC) to
  arrange for onsite liaison to help coordinate
  USACE/USGS support to NWS flood operations
• USGS liaison to RFC
• National Flood Coordinator will work with USGS
  offices for duty at RFC
• Liaison will assist with communication to USGS in
  the field
• Liaison will coordinate rating curve extension
  needs and information with the USGS offices
  providing that support
• USACE liaison to RFC
• USACE Division Chief of Water Control will
  coordinate through the HH Chiefs
• Liaison will coordinate with USACE in field
• Liaison will relay levee information and breaks

12
River Forecast Verification

• USACE requested NWS to evaluate recession
  hydrographs
• NCRFC will develop a methodology for NWS
• RIAC will provide requirements/impacts from which
  NWS can create river forecast performance metrics
  (Projected date, June 15, 2009)

13
Summary

• Forecast are important
• Action, not reports are important
• Listen to the Customer
• Success will be defined by the customer not by
  the federal agencies

14
Questions