Agriculture Development and Food Security in SubSaharan Africa: Building a Case for More Support A C

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Agriculture Development and Food Security in
Sub-Saharan AfricaBuilding a Case for More
SupportA Case Study of ZambiaDennis K.
ChiweleRuralNet Associates Limited
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Study Questions

• Why Zambia faces long-term high exposure to food
  insecurity.
• Desirability of dependency on food aid and
  commercial food imports for long-term mitigation
  of failure to meet food requirements from
  domestic production.
• Required strategies for Zambia to come out of
  chronic food imports dependency.

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Zambia is consistently failing to meet her food
needs from domestic production (1)
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Zambia is consistently failing to meet her food
needs from domestic production (2)
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Zambia is consistently failing to meet her food
needs from domestic production (3)
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An unacceptably high proportion of the population
is exposed to chronic food insecurity (1)
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An unacceptably high proportion of the population
is exposed to chronic food insecurity (2)

• The Food Security, Health and Nutrition
  Information System (FHANIS) conducted in August
  2003 found the following
• 34 HHs had run out of stock of staple food
• 20 to run out in 1 month
• 22 to last 2-3 months
• 24 to last more than 3 months

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Zambia has become dependent on food imports as a
means to try and overcome the high chronic food
deficits
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The vulnerability context producing the high
levels of food insecurity is complex

• Immediate Causes Poor harvests and animal
  losses
• But weakened livelihoods systems are at the
  centre of rising vulnerability
• Long Term Trends Fall in real incomes, rising
  food prices, rising unemployment, removal of
  subsidies, sell of productive assets, depletion
  of natural resources
• Human Health Long Term Trends HIV/AIDS and loss
  of resilience to shocks and seasonal factors
• Shocks Droughts, outbreak of animal diseases,
  balance of payments crises
• Seasonal Factors Rise in food prices (and
  decline in stocks) in months before harvest, rise
  in disease in the rain season

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Agriculture is key to Zambias development
particularly given declining mineral output
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But GDP figures mask true significance of
agriculture to Zambia

• Absorbs about 67 of the labour force
• Main source of income and employment for majority
• Directly significant to Hh food security for many
  Zambians, particularly in rural areas
• Agro-processing industries directly fed by
  agriculture constitute 75 of manufacturing
  production with significant implications for
  urban employment
• Contribution to BOP greatly increased in last 15
  years. Now contributes over 40 to NTEs (47 in
  1999) at a time of NTEs phenomenal growth

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Rightly declared by GRZ as the engine for broad
based and equitable growth but faces many
challenges.

• Given vast resource endowment (climate, land,
  labour and water), Zambia has great potential to
  expand agric production and make the country food
  self-sufficient
• Has under-performed and not matched potential due
  to
• Uncertainties due to transition to a liberalised
  agric sector that led to demise of key rural
  institutions.
• Low agriculture prices in remote areas due to
  high transaction costs.
• Climatic variability and the lack of adaptation
  of current farming practices by small farmers.
• Decline in soil fertility in areas which have
  been historically the most productive.

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Agriculture has under performed due to
(continued)

• Labour constraints at peak times of the season
• Low education and poor health status.
• Gender discrimination.
• Decline in the number of households with access
  to modern farm inputs.
• Inadequate investments for farm improvements due
  to unsupportive land tenure system

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Evolution of public support to agriculture
policies and institutions

• Beginning 1992, new policy regime to liberalize
  markets and raise private sector participation
• Agric marketing subsidies that had been central
  to the sector completely removed
• Pan-territorial pricing system abolished.
• Restrictions on agricultural imports and exports
  eased.
• Import licensing completely removed in 1994

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Evolution of public support to agriculture
institutions

• Agricultural Sector Investment Program (1996
  2000) and Agriculture Commercialization Program
  (2002 to Present) have been the two overarching
  programs
• But review of ASIP concluded that implementation
  had proceeded in an unfavourable environment as
  pre-conditions necessary for successful
  implementation were either totally absent or
  failed to hold as expected
• The ACP not taken off as expected with no donors
  funding its implementation.

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Evolution of public support to agriculture
budget and fiscal

• Agric expenditure was 2 and 5 from 1994 to
  2003, averaging 3.
• Was higher during ASIP years (4.7 average)
• Pattern of releases created serious
  instabilities, making the budget as a tool of
  planning completely irrelevant

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Assessing Impacts of Food Imports/Aid Dependence
(1)

• Cereal imports relative to domestic maize gap
  varied widely year to year, averaging 41 from
  1997 to 2002
• Food imports implicitly exist as a supplementary
  avenue for achieving adequate food supply
• No clear policy on proportion of food imports to
  domestic cereal gap
• But GRZ seems to want to fill the full gap with
  food imports. However, HHs more resilient to cope
  with staple food shortfalls by substituting with
  other foods up to a point

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Assessing Impacts of Food Imports/Aid Dependence
(2)

• Undermines coping mechanisms that may be pointing
  to directions for more sustainable food access
  mechanisms
• May be undermining drive towards increased
  diversification
• May be perpetuating distortion in food
  consumption and demand in the same way that the
  over-promotion of maize distorted consumption
  patterns of Zambia
• Uncertainty to farmers may be undermining
  long-term investments in the sector
• In communities where food relief is consistently
  provided, a dependency syndrome has been observed
  

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Emerging Opportunities For Addressing Food
Security in Zambia

• Increased diversification away from maize
• The rising share of roots and tubers and small
  grains in total area cultivated
• Rising entry of traditional crops into markets
• Rising exports
• The rise in out-grower schemes
• Changing farming practices
• Improving macro-economy

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Strategies to Achieve Food Security

• Creating a Conducive Environment for Agriculture
  Development and Food Security
• Improved Livelihoods Security for the Vulnerable
  Groups
• Helping households cope with hunger
• Raising the productivity of available assets in
  the face of persisting constraints
• Increased integration into markets
• Promotion of non-farm activities
• Increased diversification of agriculture
• Greater commercialisation of smallholder
  agriculture
• There is a strong case for investing and
  promoting irrigation

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Key Messages For SSA

• A food import policy faces difficulties in three
  areas
• The inability of the country to generate
  sufficient resources from other economic
  activities to import food on a sustainable basis.
  
• Majority have adequate cash income to buy food.
• Food aid is unreliable with SSA counties having
  little control on the amount, type and timing of
  food aid. Induced uncertainties have serious
  negative consequences.
• Continuing high levels of food insecurity a clear
  indictment of food import policy
• Food insecurity is no longer transitory but
  chronic of which the food import policy is
  inadequate to address
• Food insecurity vulnerability is deepening as a
  result of many other variables besides the
  inability to produce adequate food