Agenda Setting

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Agenda Setting

• 2 main issues
• Certain subjects will find their way onto the
  political agenda, while others will not
• Certain policy solutions will be considered while
  others are not.

2
2 Definitions

• Kingdons (1984 3) definition
• The list of subjects or problems to which
  government officials, and people outside of
  government closely associated with those
  officials, are paying some serious attention at
  any given time the agenda setting process
  narrows a set of conceivable subjects to the
  set that actually becomes the focus of attention.

3
2 Definitions

• Dearing and Rogers (1996 1) broader conception
• The agenda setting process is an ongoing
  competition among issue proponents to gain the
  attention of media professionals, the public, and
  policy elites.

4
Issues of Definition

• Not necessarily a single entity or process
• Policy, media and public agendas
• Policy Multi-level Governance
• Policy top-down and bottom-up
• Media TV, radio, newspaper
• Media local/ national, quality/ tabloid
• Public geography
• Public - demography

5
Actors involved at each stage

• Kingdons 4 stages
• the setting of the agenda
• the specification of alternatives from which a
  choice is to be made
• an authoritative choice among those specified
  alternatives
• the implementation of the decision
• Influence at one stage does not mean influence in
  another

6
Gatekeeping

• Gatekeeping is the process by which the
  billions of messages that are available in the
  world get cut down and transformed into the
  hundreds of messages that reach a given person on
  a given day gatekeeping is an integral part of
  the overall process of selecting and producing
  messages. Not only is it impossible for
  everything to be transmitted, but it is also
  impossible to transmit something without in some
  fashion shaping it (Shoemaker, 1991 1-2)

7
Gatekeeping

• Types of gatekeeper journalist/ editor but also
  e.g. civil servant, academic publisher, etc.
• Journalist sources of information not readily
  available to general public routine channels,
  unsolicited, solicited, created
• Flow of information not a one-way process (see
  literature on web)
• Gatekeeping not wrong and a hierarchy of
  sources may be necessary

8
Diminished role for gatekeeping?

• For
• Information is freely available on internet
• Multiplicity of channels,
• Live feed undermines editorialising
• Public more likely to seek information
  independently
• Public opinion exerts itself on policy through
  active public

9
Diminished role for gatekeeping?

• Against
• Majority of public passive rather than active
• Too much information means reliance on specific
  sources
• More channels but viewing figures still suggest
  core audience in small number channels
• Still reliance on summary programmes/ newspaper
  for broad picture
• Newspapers still more influential than TV
• Demand for independent information still low

10
Problem Definition

• Kingdon (1984 103-4) There is a difference
  between a condition and a problem conditions
  become defined as problems when we come to
  believe that we should do something about them ..
  the problem doesnt have to get any worse or
  better.
• Jones (1994 5) decision-makers value or weight
  preferences differently depending on the context
  in which they are evoked

11

• Problem definition depends on
• Framing
• How issues are categorised (e.g. fuel smoking)
• Measurement
• Values e.g. rights v privilege (Scottish/
  English differences?)
• Rhetorical Values fairness, equality,
  patriotism, etc.
• Causality
• Clarity
• Comparisons/ policy learning (health US/ UK, fox
  hunting, smoking and HE in Scotland, the CSA,
  smoking in NY and Ireland, etc)
• Expansion from self interest to general problem
• Sympathetic groups/ focus (HIV, Hep C)
• Definition at different levels of government
  (e.g. harm reduction)
• The availability of a solution

12
Policy windows (Kingdon)

• The policy window is an opportunity for
  advocates of proposals to push their pet
  solutions, or to push attention to their special
  problems .. advocates lie in wait in and around
  government with their solutions at hand, waiting
  for problems to float by to which they can attach
  their solutions

13
Policy windows

• Solutions seeking problems emphasises
  importance of framing issues. Examples
• Mass public transport
• Harm reduction existed long before HIV
• Private health care UK
• Public health and 9/11

14
Measuring Agendas

• Public surveys e.g. Most Important Problem
  (Gallup US) or Issue (MORI UK)
• Media number of stories, column inches,
  prominence in relation to other stories
• Policy Attention time given in debates, number
  of congressional hearings, no. PQs?
• Policy Action - legislation, funding

15
MORI UK and Gallup US

• MORI results based on combination of 2 questions
• Q What would you say is the most important issue
  facing Britain today?
• Q What do you see as other important issues
  facing Britain today?
• Gallup questions just focus on most important
  problem

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Limitation

• Is it the most important issue in terms of its
  durable value?
• OR
• Is it highlighted as an issue because right now
  it is a problem?
• Unemployment and inflation are good examples
  i.e. attention rises and falls with the apparent
  scale of the problem

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Unpacking the process

• Why do some issues not make it?
• Why do some issues make it? Attention
• Why do some issues make it does the issue
  require action?
• What happens when an issue reaches the agenda?
• What is the relationship between an agenda and an
  agenda?!

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Why do some issues not make it?

• General points
• As Kingdon (1984 chapter 5) puts it, there is a
  long list of problems that people could focus
  on and problems are not entirely self evident.
  
• Nor is solving a problem the only reason
  government enacts a solution.
• Other reasons politicians making their mark,
  change of government

19
Why do some issues not make it?

• Problem recognition lack of knowledge or
  understanding
• Lack of demand for knowledge
• Budget 1 - Problem may seem impossible or too
  expensive to solve
• Existing social arrangements
• Existing structural arrangements
• Non-decision making (policy communities?)
• Framed as a technical issue?
• Lack of resources to pursue issue
• Existing social arrangements
• Competition for attention

20
Why do some issues make it Attention

• Triggering of events/ crisis
• Problem is countable/ changes in levels have
  exaggerated effects
• How many people/ who affected?
• Framing and symbols
• Successful promotion
• Evaluations of existing programmes
• Piggybacking
• Budget 2 extra expenditure means extra
  attention (e.g. Treasury PSA)
• Has it been done elsewhere? E.g. Smoking/ Scotland

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Why do some issues make it Does the issue
require action?

• Legitimacy of issue nature of state
• Legitimacy budget constraints
• Legitimacy and territorial politics
• Legitimacy and resources available to pursue the
  issue
• Is it a valence/ uncontested issue? (and does
  this matter?)
• Is there a sense of urgency?

22
What happens when an issue reaches the agenda?

• Issue action What happens when action is taken?
  The issue may fade from attention, but what is
  the legacy of the action?
• Issue fade/ disappearance why? Policy solution
  found (i.e. issue solved or addressed), policy
  solution too expensive, a lack of consensus about
  solving the problem, boredom/ fashion/ a new
  issue has emerged, overcrowding of governmental
  agendas.

23
What is the relationship between an agenda
(general public concern) and an agenda (policy
options)?

• Does public and media concern translate to
  specific government action or just government
  attention?
• Does government action and media activity
  determine public attention?

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Effects of Agendas

• Effect of public attention Do something
• Difference between public attention and public
  opinion
• Is public opinion really media opinion?
• Kingdon distinction between governmental (policy)
  agenda and decision agenda
• Hogwood/ Peters distinction between policy
  attention and substantial action

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Effects of Agendas Marrying agendas with policy
communities literature

• Most decisions take place in private?
• Heightened awareness unusual a sign of failure?
• Linear attention-response model inaccurate?
• Responsive government?
• Punctuated equilibrium?
• How is responsiveness measured?

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Measuring Attention over time

• Most of the discussion here will be single issues
  over time (looking at the Issue Attention Cycle)
• Important to place into context of the most
  important issues as a whole
• A discussion of issue hierarchy is useful but
  difficult to manage

27
MORI makes it look easy for the UK discussion,
but this is only a 1-year snapshot
http//www.mori.com/polls/trends/issues12.shtml
Things become more difficult if we analyse a 30
year period
28
However, the peaks still tell a story (1) Labour
1974-79 Inflation and the Winter of Discontent
(2) 1979-87 high unemployment and Thatcherite
solutions including curbing TU power (NB
miners strike) (see also peak of concern over
Cold War 1983) (3) Unemployment replaced
sporadically by health crisis in 1987, poll tax
in 1989 and Iraq war in 1990 (4) Unemployment
replaced altogether in 1996 by health (and
briefly by Afghanistan/ Iraq and by FMD
(foot-and-mouth disease).
29
Trends (1) Inflation and Unemployment dominate
the early part. Inflation dwindles by 1990
(replaced by economy?), unemployment lingers
until 2000 (2) Health and education become more
important from late 1980s (3) Crime and pensions
relatively constant (4) Issues with intermittent
effects TUs, Cold War, Poll Tax, Defence/
terror issues, immigration and FMD (5) EU
important 1990s.
30
Conclusions?

• In some such as unemployment and inflation we
  may argue that public attention merely mirrors
  the objective indicators (although see below).
• In others we may identify crises of public
  attention in which the government clearly acts or
  reacts e.g. the poll tax, FMD, the health
  crisis.
• In others we may see heightened attention which
  follows rather than prompts government action
  (although it clearly has an influence in other
  ways) e.g. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
• There is some recent evidence that government
  action reflects public concern. As Hindmoor
  (2003 216) argues
• "The 2002 Spending Review channels additional
  resources towards those policy areas the
  electorate itself considers to be the most
  pressing.  When asked in a poll what they
  considered to be the most important issues facing
  Britain in September 2002, 41 mentioned health
  and 31 education, only 10 mentioned the economy
  and 8 Europe .. far from trying to drag the
  electorate behind it, the government has
  responded to it".

31
Agenda Setting - Exploring Issue Attention
Cycles

What is the significance of these pictures?
32
Downs Public attention rarely remains sharply
focused upon any one domestic issue for very long
even if it involves a continuing problem of
crucial importance to society Public perception
of most crises does not reflect changes in
real conditions as much as it reflects the
operation of a systematic cycle of heightening
public interest and then increasing boredom with
major issues.
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5 stages

• 1. The pre-problem stage
• 2. Alarmed discovery and euphoric enthusiasm
• 3. Realizing the cost of significant progress.
• 4. Gradual decline of intense public interest.
• 5. The post-problem stage.

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1. The Pre-problem stage

• Problem exists alarm by experts or groups but
  little public attention
• Examples environment, HIV, Hep C, famine (more
  in seminar)
• Objective conditions worse now than when issue
  gets attention?
• Measurement depends on framing of issue

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2. Alarmed discovery and euphoric enthusiasm.

• Attention is sparked
• Public says Do something
• Most applicable to new issues?
• Applicable to sub-issues within larger policy
  areas?

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Source Newig, 2004
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3. Realizing the cost of significant progress.

• Action requires major sacrifice of existing
  beneficial arrangements (e.g. car use?)
• Crucial point - Does realisation of costs precede
  or follow government action?
• Policy solutions in the form of new government
  agencies/ projects do not fade away like public
  interests or media attention

38
4. Gradual decline of intense public interest.

• Is this because of boredom or policy action?
• Crucial distinction if the latter then may have
  long-term policy consequences
• Example of Nuclear power

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5. The post-problem stage.

• a prolonged limbo - a twilight realm of lesser
  attention or spasmodic recurrences of interest.
• problems that have gone through the cycle almost
  always receive a higher average level of
  attention, public effort, and general concern
  than those still in the pre-discovery stage.

40
Best/ Worst Case for IAC

• A discussion of AIDS as an issue perhaps
  represents the best case for the Issue
  Attention Cycle. We will also discuss drugs and
  famine.
• For issues such as AIDS and the environment,
  objective conditions are difficult to pin down
• The issue of inflation is perhaps the worst case
  for the IAC, since concern closely mirrors the
  objective conditions
• This is ironic since unemployment best example of
  manipulating objective conditions

41
AIDS in the UK

• Downs criteria majority of people not affected
  current social arrangements beneficial not
  intrinsically exciting issue.
• AIDS relevant in this sense e.g. 49500 living
  with HIV by 2002
• Early conceptions of AIDS in terms of the 4 Hs
  Homosexual, Heroin Addict, Haitian,
  Haemophiliac
• AIDS attention demonstrates Downs cycle well

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• Period up to 12.86 Pre-problem stage (THT,
  EAG, DHSS units formed)
• 2.87 alarmed discovery (Dont die of
  ignorance campaign)
• 3.87 onwards gradual decline with sporadic
  interest (HEA campaigns 3.88, 7.88, 12.88-3.89
  ) testing of Retrovir highlighted in 1991.

44
Conclusions from Public Attention to AIDS

• Acute levels of concern but no detailed
  instructions.
• Government action (based on group pressure)
  reinforced this concern.
• Public interest waned as health education efforts
  were scaled down (but as the problem increased?)

45
From an acute to a chronic problem?
HIV and AIDSNumbers up by 20 to 49,500 in 2002
But has the scale of the problem gone up?

By the end of 2002 the estimated number of
people living with HIV in the United Kingdom was
estimated at 49,500, an increase of 20 per cent
compared with 2001. This figure includes
undiagnosed and diagnosed people, with a third of
these cases estimated as unaware of their
condition. In 2002, 5711 new HIV cases were
diagnosed. This was almost double the number
diagnosed in 1998, which was 2818. By contrast,
the numbers of AIDS diagnoses and deaths in
HIV-infected individuals declined after the
introduction of effective therapies in the
mid-1990s, and in more recent years have remained
relatively constant, with 777 reports of AIDS and
395 deaths so far reported for 2002.Source
http//www.statistics.gov.uk
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Media Attention Cycle
47
Media Attention Cycle

• Media attention preceded then followed
  significant government action
• Qualitative as well as quantitative issue much
  government publicity successfully challenged
  early media coverage of risk groups, and dangers
  of catching virus, screening and punitive
  measures.
• Media attention waned as new angles ran out

48
Parliamentary Attention Cycle
49
Parliamentary Attention Cycle

• Parliamentary attention initially as part of
  backlash to government inactivity
• Parliament then largely followed reinforced
  government message
• Exception of compensation for haemophiliacs and
  then all infected from blood products (precursor
  to Hepatitis C compensation?)

50

• Peak coincides with the War on Drugs see
  Dearing and Rodgers, 1993 19.
• the policy agenda (or government action)
  influences the public agenda via the media
  agenda?

News stories peak in 1989
51

US News Reporting of Famine in Ethiopia 1981-88

• Source Dearing and Rogers, 1996 34 (see web
  notes)

52

Column Inches related to the Ethiopian Famine
in the Quality and Popular Press 1984

• Source Philo, 1993 109 (see web notes).

53

2nd BBC report October 84
Band Aid Xmas 84
April 2000 Reports of European efforts to avert
similar disaster
Live Aid July 85

• Calculated from lexis-nexis (NB Guardian is the
  only paper which goes back far enough in LN. NB
  importance of reference points)

54
Public Attention and UK Unemployment closely
follows objective conditions or closely follows
media accounts of government influenced
representations of those conditions?
Does attention mirror more closely the claimant
count or the LFS count?
Why do the graphs converge as unemployment rises
and diverge as it falls?
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Exxon Valdez incident March 1989

• Downs argues that an issue may sporadically
  recapture public interest
• Does this adequately explain the 1989-90 rise?
• 2 different IACs?

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Environmental and other issues

• Whole set of IACs?
• Nuclear War what is the objective condition
• Pollution late 1980s attention mirrors
  greening of central government
• Issue fade in FMD because of action not
  realisation of costs?

61
FMD and BSE

• BSE
• From 1990-6 public attention does not follow
  media agenda
• Some evidence of fatigue regarding media scares
  (salmonella, listeria)
• General belief in governmental/ scientific line
  on no risk

62
Media Attention to BSE before 1996
63
BSE

• 1996 health secretary announcement on CJD
• Shift in trust from government experts to groups
  and media
• Continued with GM
• Context for FMD heightened anxiety and looming
  election forced quick action?
• Phoenix the calf and inconsistency

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Phoenix
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Health, education, crime

• Not applicable to Issue Attention Cycle?
• Election effect 1997 in NHS and education
• Crises in NHS funding 1988, internal market
  1991, Winter crisis 2000/1, MRSA
• Cumulative effect broader issues waiting
  lists, PFI, efficiency
• Still, MMR causes largest peak
• Ties in with general lack of trust in
  governmental expertise?
• Was there a similar policy shift to that
  witnessed in FMD?

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Conclusions what happens when an issue reaches
the agenda?

• Examples in which the government creates or
  manages the agenda or when attention reflects
  government action
• UK AIDS policy and changing public attitudes
• UK Unemployment redefinition and control of
  statistics
• BSE before 1996
• War in Iraq 1990

70
Conclusions what happens when an issue reaches
the agenda?

• Examples in which governments act on the basis of
  heightened attention
• NHS crisis in 1988
• Recent spending rounds (NHS and education rises)
• US War on drugs
• US/ UK Wars in Iraq and Afghanisan?
• UK and GM/ FMD

71
Conclusions what happens when an issue reaches
the agenda?

• Examples in which government reaction is
  uncertain or not closely linked to attention
• Ethiopian famine e.g. plans to reduce foreign
  aid
• Attention to the Cold War
• MMR?

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