Public Affairs Analysis Adjunct Research Professor Stephen L. Harris

1
Public Affairs AnalysisAdjunct Research
Professor Stephen L. Harris

• Carleton University
• PSCI 2401A
• Public Affairs Analysis
• Fall 2008

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Whats This Mean?

• Fair and Balanced (Fox News)
• Clean Air Act (Canadian Federal Governments
  Environment Policy)
• No Child Left Behind (US Federal Government
  Education Policy)

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Unfortunately, This!

• Fox Unfair and unbalanced!
• The Government supports a Dirty Air Act!
• US education policy results in many poor kids
  left behind!
• The lesson -- policy is what actors do -- not
  what they say. If you take anything away from
  this course -- please let it be this.

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Course Objective

• To provide students with an understanding of the
  principal elements of public policy analysis and
  decision-making --
• By reviewing relevant theoretical literature and
  models of policy analysis and decision-making
  and
• By applying theory to substantive policy areas
  and
• By using national and/or comparative data for
  developed or developing countries

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Course Materials

• Michael Howlett and M. Ramesh, Studying Public
  Policy Policy Cycles and Policy Subsystems
  (Second Edition)
• Course Pack (Readings with )

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Assessment

• Class Participation _at_ 20 percent
• Two short essays _at_ 15 30
• Policy Analysis Paper _at_ 25
• Final Exam _at_ 25
• Total 100

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Class (Section) Participation I

• Students should come to each class prepared to
  discuss the weeks readings
• Come to class with a view it doesnt mater what
  that view is but you must have a view
• Dont be afraid to express a view and dont be
  intimidated by your colleagues
• If you are having problems with the readings
  see me or your TA during office hours .

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Two Short Essays

• There is lots going on in the world I/Os,
  domestic and international politics, World
  Economic Forum
• Apply the current readings to a policy issue so
  you should understand both the readings and the
  policy issue. Do not rely on blogs for your
  research or analysis. Never, Never use Wikepedia
• You will have to read the international press
  (e.g., UK FT, Economist, IHT, Guardian) if you
  who are in the development stream and also for
  those interested in comparative analysis read
  the domestic press for those interested in
  Canadian issues (GM, National Post, Policy
  Options)
• Length 2 pages single spaced due October 3rd
  and October 24th
• No e-mail submissions

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Research/Case Study Paper I

• Theoretical or applied
• One country or comparative
• Evidence that you have taken this course by
  applying the theoretical literature
• Use of scholarly literature is imperative.
  Relying on rudimentary Google searches or on
  blogs is not acceptable. No Wikepedia references!
• 15 pages (double spaced)
• No e-mail submissions of the final paper

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Research/Case Study Paper II

• Choose a topic that is of real interest to you.
• Instructor or TA should approve the topic no
  later than October 3
• One page outline in bullet form not an essay
• Evaluation criteria for paper
• Use and understanding of the literature
• Use of primary sources
• Originality and quality of analysis
• Quality of writing
• Accuracy of citations
• This is a research paper so dont leave the paper
  for the last minute! Those who do are usually
  disappointed with their grade.
• I am here to help you so take advantage!
• Due November 28th

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In Class Exam

• One integrative question
• If you study in groups ensure that you dont come
  to the exam with the philosophy of I have an
  answer whats the question
• If you complete all the readings, and understand
  them, you will have no problems with the exam

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Deadlines

• All deadlines are firm.
• No extensions.
• No e-mail submissions.
• Late submissions will be penalized by one full
  grade for each day the assignment is late.
• Thus an A paper becomes a B paper after one day.
  So there is not much room to dither. This applies
  to both the short and long essays

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Some Definitional Issues in Public Policy I

• Policy -- what governments do
• Policy vs. Decision
• -- Consider policy a pattern of action
• -- Policy can be a set of interrelated decisions
• -- Policy not usually a single decision
• Policy vs. Politics
• -- Bureaucracy and politicians (traditional
  distinction Wilson, Weber)
• Complexity has blurred the distinction in the
  advanced industrial societies

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Some Definitional Issues in Public Policy II

• Less so in developing countries where political
  elites still dominate.
• Policy can determine politics or vice versa
• Policy and academic disciplines (social sciences)
• Economics
• Political Science
• Political Economy
• Sociology
• Geography

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Portraits of Public Policy

• Types of Policy Literature
• Dependent and Independent Variables
• Relationships among policy fields and instruments
• Comparative Analysis

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Types of Public Policy Literature

• General Approaches and Frameworks
• Theories/Hypotheses of Policy Fields as the
  dependent variable
• Theories/Hypotheses of policy instruments as the
  dependent variable
• Policy Structure and Process as the dependent
  variable
• Comparative analysis

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General Approaches

• Theories
• -- Comprehensive Rationality
• -- Pluralist/incremental
• -- Class (neo-Marxist) and elite
• -- Rational, public choice, political economy
• -- Systems influence of outputs on the policy
  system
• -- Neo-institutionalist impact of institutional
  type on system behavior
• -- Corporatist

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Policy Instrument Choice

• The way in which governments seek to ensure
  compliance, support and implementation of public
  policy
• Exhortation and symbolic policy outputs
• Expenditure
• Taxation
• Regulation and
• Public enterprise
• And in some developing countries, state violence

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Policy Fields as Dependent Variable

• Fields such as
• -- Macroeconomic policy
• -- Social Policy
• -- Industrial or regional policy
• -- Trade Policy
• -- Agricultural Policy
• Analyzed in relation to range of possible
  independent variables
• -- Ideologies and ideas
• -- Parties and representation of interests
• -- State structure
• -- International dependencies

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Policy Instrument as Dependent Variable

• Spending
• Taxation
• Regulation
• Public Investment or state enterprise
• Exhortation
• In case of instruments and fields can compare two
  or more countries
• Always beware of policy outputs and policy
  outcomes
• Always consider policy means and ends
• Always consider effects of globalization on
  capacity of the state to act -- limitations on
  state choices

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Policy structure and/or Process as Dependent
Variable

• -- of one country
• -- of two or more countries
• -- of the process as an end in itself
• Theories or empirical observations about
• -- Tax process
• -- Spending process
• -- Priority-setting process
• -- Regulatory process
• -- Decentralization process
• -- Foreign policy process

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Thinking About Dependent and Independent Variables

• Problems of defining, measuring, and being
  sensible about dependent and independent
  variables
• -- Policy in general as the independent variable
• -- Policy fields as the dependent variable
• -- Policy instruments as the dependent variable
• -- Independent variables

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Policy in General as the Dependent Variable

• All policy through time (e.g., since WWII)
• All policy during specified period (i.e, 1990s
  recession 2001 recession after the dot-com
  bubble burst)
• Overt policy vs. non-decisions
• Policy outputs vs. policy outcomes or policy
  effects
• Relationship of policy to institutions and
  socio-economic determinants and to history
• Path Dependency

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Path Dependency I

• Path dependent argument focuses on the sequence
  of events in a historical evolution.
• Basic assumption once a particular event
  transpires the course of events that follow is
  changed forever.
• Events war, revolution, important policy
  decision, hyper-inflation, depression

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The Policy Process (System)
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What Exactly is a Policy Field

• A set of purposes ideas indicating some
  preferred or current state.
• A rhetorically packaged label or stance to
  enhance advocacy and to simplify political
  communication.
• A set of instruments.
• A set of programs.
• A set of organizations and ministries.
• An event or occasion or time-related cycle of
  behavior.
• A set of international institutions and
  relationships.

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Thinking about the Relationship Between Policy
Fields

• What exactly is in a policy field?
• An overview of some elements of policy fields.
• Assertions or generalizations about dynamics
  among policy fields.
• The nature and growing internationalization of
  domestic policy fields.

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Policy Fields Macroeconomic

• Dependent Variable variously defined as
• -- Fiscal Policy
• -- Labor market policy
• -- Inflation targeting
• -- Deficits and debt
• -- Monetary policy
• -- Exchange rate policy
• -- Balance of Payments
• -- Competitiveness/Productivity
• -- Land Ownership and distribution

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Policy Fields Social Policy

• Dependent variable defined variously as
• -- Social welfare policy in general
• -- Health, Education and welfare
• -- Law order and corrections
• -- Cultural, Linguistic, Ethnic
• Policy intentions and orientations expressed as
• -- redistribution and equality
• -- equity
• -- caring- sharing
• -- individual well-being
• -- collective well-being

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Policy Fields Industrial Policy

• Dependent variable defined variously as
• -- Defined narrowly manufacturing/agriculture
• -- Defined broadly -- all factors of production
• -- Defined selectively -- financial services
  industry/ rice producers
• -- Defined spatially -- regional policy
• -- Defined as outcome -- competitiveness
• -- Defined as adjustment policy -- economic
  restructuring (developing or developed economies)

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Policy Fields Defined as Client Groups or
Categories

• Gender
• Youth
• Aged
• Ethnic groups
• Poor
• Global pandemics (AIDS/HIV, SARS, Avian Flu)
• Middle Class
• Small Business
• Service sector

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Elements of Policy Fields

• Dominant Ideas Paradigms
• - Liberty - Keynesian
• - Efficiency - Monetarist
• - Stability - Supply-side
• - Equity - Universality
• - Equality - Safety Net
• - Regional Sensitivity - Market-based

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Assertions or Generalizations about the Dynamics
among Policy Fields I

• Keynesian stabilization policy is destabilizing.
• Price stability is the key to economic
  prosperity.
• Deficit reduction is the key to economic
  prosperity.
• Policy sequencing must be optimized.
• Redistribution is possible only after wealth has
  been created.
• Good social policy is a pre-condition for
  efficiency.

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Assertions or Generalizations about the Dynamics
among Policy Fields II

• Economic prosperity is a pre-condition for
  democracy.
• Democracy is a pre-condition for economic
  prosperity.
• Capital is increasingly mobile and labor
  increasingly less mobile.
• The more open is a countrys economy the greater
  is the need for a strong state and for state led
  adjustment.
• The market will take care of resource allocation.

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Internationalization of Policy Fields I

• Due to
• -- WTO trade regime
• -- Bilateral trade agreements -- regional trade
  agreements
• -- Cross-border consolidation (finance,
  telecommun- ications, cultural industries,
  manufacturing, information industries, services
  producing industries)
• -- International networks of policy professionals
  and interest groups
• -- Mobility of capital

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Internationalization of Policy Fields II

• Due to
• IMF discourse on sustainable macro-economic
  policy
• World Bank influence on sustainable development
  discourse
• WHO dealing with global pandemics
• OECD international transmission of policy ideas
• BIS safe and sound global financial system

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Policy Instruments Regulation

• Social vs. economic
• As reflected in statutes
• As reflected in rules, delegated legislation
• As reflected in enforcement and compliance
• e.g. regulating hazardous substances, the
  dependent variable could be
• Policy consequences -- concentration of chemicals
  in water cost of compliance
• Policy content -- statute. rule, code, court
  order
• Policy actions -- allowable exposure levels,
  restriction of use

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Independent Variables

• What variables are used or hypothesized to
  explain the politics of or the political
  economy of. For example
• -- ideologies and ideas
• -- elections and electoral calculus
• -- parties
• -- representation -- leverage by business and
  labor
• -- bureaucracy (including state autonomy and
  capacity)
• -- leaders and leadership
• -- nature of international dependency
• -- nature of the policy problem (development /
  adjustment)
• -- socio-economic factors

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Questions to be Posed Continuously I(When
thinking About Policy)

• What precisely is the dependent variable?
• What precisely are the independent variables?
• Over what time frame are the variables examined?
• Is there an even/uneven knowledge evident in the
  authors treatment of countries for comparative
  analysis?
• To what extent does the research treat policy as
  an output or outcome as opposed to a set of
  relationships or process?

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Questions to be Posed Continuously II(When
Thinking About Policy)

• To what extent can the variables be quantified?
• What is the indicator used to reflect the
  variable?
• How are the relationships among variables tested
  and/or explained?
• How, in each of the former questions, would you
  approach the topic or conduct the research?
• What values are revealed or disguised by the
  authors approach?

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Organizing for Policy Analysis

• What precisely is the question you are asking?
• What precisely do you think answers the question?
• Where do you locate your answer
• What theory?
• What approach?
• All subject to debate no one right answer
• But application of theories or approaches can be
  incorrect

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Dependent Independent Variables

• In Economics Quantitative Analysis Generally
• Consumption f( Income, Wealth)

Independent Variables
Dependent Variable
What you want to explain what factors influence
consumer spending
Examples of the factors influencing consumption
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Dependent Independent Variables

• Policy Analysis (Interdisciplinary)
• All Social Policy f( History, Ideology,
  Interests, regional cleavages international
• dependency/openness)

Independent Variable
Dependent Variables