2003 ELECTIONS

1
2003 ELECTIONS

• Comparison of Results
• Latest CROP Survey and Actual Votes
• CROP Inc.
• April 2003

2
Comparison of Results

• Following the election of April 14, 2003, here
  are the results of our last poll compared to the
  actual popular vote.
• This document contains
• The results of the last CROP poll, with the
  various methods of Discreet voter distribution we
  use.
• The results of our last polls before each
  election since 1985.
• We still claim that after our last poll was
  completed during the 1998 election campaign, the
  electorate moved significantly toward the Liberal
  Party (5 points) in response to Mr. Charest's
  repeated warnings with respect to the
  sovereignist agenda of the Parti québécois.
• The evolution of our poll results after
  distribution, since January 2003.
• Finally, in our profession, numbers are worth a
  thousand words

3
Voting Intentions and Actual Votes in the Quebec
Provincial Elections April 2003
1 Distribution taking into account the referendum
voting intentions of discreet voters in order to
determine their partisan preferences. Method
developed by Professor Maurice Pinard.
4
Voting Intentions and Actual Votes in the Quebec
Provincial Elections and the 1995 Referendum
1985 - 2003
ELECTIONS OF DEC. 2, 1985
ELECTIONS OF SEPT. 12, 1994
ELECTIONS OF SEPT. 25, 1989
REFERENDUM OF OCT. 30, 1995
ELECTIONS OF NOV. 30, 1998
ELECTIONS OF APRIL 14, 2003
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
CROP POLL NOV. 85
CROP POLL SEPT. 89
CROP POLL SEPT. 94
CROP POLL OCT. 95
CROP POLL NOV. 98
POPULAR VOTE
CROP POLL APRIL 03
POPULAR VOTE
POPULAR VOTE
POPULAR VOTE
POPULAR VOTE
POPULAR VOTE
1
1
1
1
1
1
PLQ/Yes
PQ/No
ADQ
Others
1
All these polls were completed about a week
before the elections or referendum.
5
Evolution of Voting Intentions
6
2003 ELECTIONS

• Comparison of Results
• Latest CROP Survey and Actual Votes
• CROP Inc.
• April 2003