Presidential and Congressional Elections

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Presidential and Congressional Elections
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• November 12, 2007

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Voter Turnout

• U.S. turnout in comparative perspective
• Lower for congressional elections than
  Presidential elections
• Decline in voter turnout
• How low is it? Does it matter?
• The role of age and education

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Turnout in Comparative Perspective
See also Fiorina et al. Table 6.1, p.140
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Trends in Voter Turnout
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Voting is the most common form of political
participation

• Many people also talk about politics and try to
  persuade others to vote
• Very few participate in any other specific way.

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The U.S. in Comparative Perspective
Source Comparative Study of Electoral Systems
(CSES), Module 2, 2004
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Why is voter turnout so low?

• Electoral system
• Voter attitudes
• Lack of convenience
• Difficulty of registration

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Options for Electing the President
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• Congress chooses the president
• State legislatures choose the president
• President elected by popular vote
• Electoral College

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How it works
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• Each state was allocated a number of Electors
  equal to the number of U.S. Senators (always 2)
  plus the number of U.S. Representatives (which
  changes)
• The manner of choosing the electors was left to
  the individual state legislators. By 1836 all
  states (except for South Carolina) choose
  electors by popular vote (plurality rules).
• The person with a majority of electoral votes is
  elected president
• In the event that no candidate wins a majority,
  the U.S. House of Representatives would choose
  from the top five contenders. Each state could
  cast only one vote. An absolute majority is
  required

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2000 Presidential Election
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Bush 271 Gore 266 (270 needed to win)
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Battleground States (2004)
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Bush 234 Kerry 207
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2004 Presidential Election Results
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See results by state
Bush 286 EV (51)/ Kerry 252 EV (48) 270 EV
needed to win
A change in Ohio (with 20 electoral votes) would
have given Kerry the presidency even though Bush
would have received a majority of the popular vote
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Unequal Representation
Source Robert A. Dahl, How Democratic is the
American Constitution?
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Adjusting for State Population
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Plurality Winners by County
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Percentage of the vote for parties
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The Florida Disaster
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• Florida recount (link to Univ. of Chicago study)
• The punch card voting system
• Design of the palm beach ballot

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The Butterfly Ballot
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Evidence of problems in Palm Beach
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2006 Midterm Elections

• Democrats win control of both the House and the
  Senate for the first time since 1994
• Democrats picked up 28 Seats in House (229 D/196
  R)
• Democrats picked up 6 Seats in the Senate (51 D
  including 2 Independents/49 R)

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Forecast in Democratic Seats
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Forecast in Republican Seats
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Midterm Losses

• Presidents party has lost House seats in every
  postwar midterm election until 1998 and 2002.
• Since the end of WW II, the average midterm seat
  loss for the presidents party is 24 seats.
• When the presidents approval rating is below 50
  the average midterm seat loss is 38 seats.

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Presidential Popularity and Congressional
Outcomes in the Midterm Elections in a
Presidents Second Term
Year President Approval House Senate
1950 Truman 41 -29 -6
1958 Eisenhower 57 -48 -13
1966 Johnson 44 -47 -4
1974 Nixon/Ford 53 -48 -5
1986 Reagan 64 -5 -8
1998 Clinton 65 5 0
2006 Bush 38 -28 -6