Urban Land Use Models: An Overview

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Urban Land Use Models An Overview

• E.J. Miller
• Bahen-Tanenbaum Professor, Dept. of Civil
  Engineering
• Director, Urban Transportation Research
  Advancement Centre
• University of Toronto
• Land Use Model Workshop
• New York Metropolitan Transportation Council
• University Transportation Research Centre Region
  2
• New York, May 1, 2009

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Presentation Outline

• Urban Form Transportation Interactions
• Need for Integrated Urban Models
• Key Design Elements Issues
• Current State

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Transportation and urban form are fundamentally
linked. How we build our city directly determines
travel needs, viability of alternative travel
modes, etc.
Transportation, in turn, influences land
development and location choices of people
firms.
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Factors Influencing Land Use Impact(Knight
Trygg, 1977)
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To understand these complex transportation
urban form interactions and to analyze the wide
variety of policies (transportation,
housing, etc.) that affect the urban system
requires integrated, comprehensive models of
transportation and land use.
INPUTS
URBAN ACTIVITY SYSTEM
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
Land Development
Transportation Network
Location Choice
Automobile Ownership
Regional Economics
Travel Demand
Activity Schedules
Government Policies
Activity Patterns
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Long- Short-Run Interactions
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Example Application The Toronto Waterfront
What would be the impact of tearing down
the Gardiner Expressway? What if it
wasnt replaced? What transit options might
exist? What would be the impact on population
employment distributions?
2030_A
Target Year (Policy Option A)
2005
evolve
Base Year
branchand evolve
2010
2030_B
Event Year
Target Year (Policy Option B)
2030_C
Target Year (Policy Option C)
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Example Application Places to Grow

• What will be the impact of a greenbelt on
• housing density prices?
• employment concentration?
• transit viability?
• congestion?
• emissions?

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Example Application
What would be the impact of the proposed
congestion pricing scheme on Manhattans economic
activity system and travel patterns?
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Land Use Models
Formal models which try to capture the
transportation - land use interaction are usually
referred to as land use models, integrated land
use - transportation models, or integrated urban
models. Such models have existed since the early
1960s. Histrocially, they have had mixed
success, with the result that, until recently few
urban areas used formal models. Integrated urban
models, however, are increasingly being developed
and used in the U.S. and elsewhere.
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Integrated Models, Typical Sub-models
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Need for Land Use Models
Without an integrated analysis of both land use
and transportation, may well miss key system
responses, and/or over/under-estimate the system
responses which are being explicitly
modelled. Many transportation issues
(especially with respect to sustainability) have
their origins (and perhaps their solutions as
well) in land use design.
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Policy Options

• Policy Tools
• fiscal
• regulatory
• operational
• infrastructure
• marketing
• education
• information
• dissemination

Land Use Management
Supply Management
Community Goals
Demand Management
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Need for Integrated Models
A complete representation of short- long-range
system responses to policies is required if
alternatives to business as usual are to be
found.
VKT
Trend Projection
Dynamic, path-dependent response to
policy initiatives
Historical Trend
Time
Base Year
Forecast Horizon
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Policy Inputs into an Integrated Urban Model
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Non-Modelling Approaches
In the absence of formal land use models (the
usual case), scenario-based extrapolations of
population and employment by zone are used to
provide inputs to the travel demand modeling
system.
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Non-Modelling Approaches, contd

• Problems include
• Scenarios are often unrealistic, and/or
  internally inconsistent
• Scenarios are often inconsistent with the
  transportation system
• Lack of feedback/interaction between land use
  and transportation sectors
• Lack of detail in attributes of population
  employment
• Lack of policy sensitivity
• Separation of land use planning from
  transportation planning

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Key Components of an Integrated Model
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Design Issues

• Time
• Space (land)
• Building stock
• Transportation networks

Physical System

• Persons
• Households
• Firms (Employment)

Active Agents

• Land development
• Location choices
• Job market
• Demographics
• Regional economics
• Automobile holdings
• Activity / travel demand
• Network performance

Processes
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Performance Issues
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Policy Capabilities
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Treatment of Time
economic conditions
economic changes space changes migration
economic conditions
economic interactions
economic interactions
goods services movements
household travel
goods services movements
household travel
route choice
route choice
transport conditions
transport conditions
changes in transport supply
year t
year t1
Source Hunt Donnelly (2002)
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Modeling the Housing Market
Policies Zoning Interest Rates Infrastructure
Investment
Developers/Landlords
Households
Occupants decisions to move

• Developers decisions to build new housing
• Type (structure/tenure)
• Location
• Number of units
• Size/quality/price range

Vacancies
Prices
Active households search among selected vacancies
Decision to buy/rent
Decision to sell/lease
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General Principles
1. Data first. 2. Develop/improve travel
demand model. 3. A step-by-step approach is
required. 4. An explicit plan is required.
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Requirements for Model Development/Improvement
1. Data. 2. Staff. 3. Commitment to model
development, separate from daily
operations. 4. Managerial/institutional
commitment. 5. Include modelers in
decision-making. 6. Understand the proper role
of models. 7. Dont underestimate or dismiss
models. 8. Dont settle for too little. 9.
Dont accept the status quo. 10. Move
incrementally, but move towards the long
run.
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Steps Towards the Ideal Model
Travel
Logit /
Demand
No Transit /
Transit /
Land
Activity-based
peak-period
Model
mode split
no logit (24 hr)
Use
assignment
Model
None
Activity
Judgement
DRAM or
equivalent
Logit allocation
w/ price signals
Short-term goal
Fully integrated
Ideal Model
market-based
Long-term goal
model
First Path
Advanced Path
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Policy Capabilities of Current Integrated Models
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Current State

• Land use models are in operational use in many
  U.S. cities, and under development in many
  others. Statewide models also exist.
• 3 primary current generation models in use in
  the U.S.
• Metroscope
• PECAS
• UrbanSim

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Current State, contd

• Other GIS-based land use mapping/scenario-building
  systems exist (UPLAN, PLACE3S, etc.), but these
  are not full-blown integrated model systems.
• Commercial transportation modeling software
  vendors are reportedly developing land use
  modules, but these are not yet on the market.

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Current State, contd

• Land use modeling has been shown to be practical
  and to make a difference in policy analysis.
• In Oregon, for example, the statewide model has
  been used to assess freeway options and to design
  a statewide bridge rehabilitation program.

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Current State, contd

• While U.S. legislation does not mandate use of
  land use models, it strongly encourages it.
• Failure to consider land use options and effects
  can lead to law suits.
• More important, failure to consider land use
  effects can lead to unexpected outcomes and poor
  investment other policy decisions.

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A Final Word

• Land use models do not make decisions and do not
  replace planning design.
• They are another voice at the table that allows
  planners to explore the likely consequences of
  their policies (infrastructure investment,
  pricing, zoning, etc.) by tracing the complex
  chain of spatial processes (travel, auto
  ownership, location choice, land development)
  that respond over time to these policies.

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Thank you for your attention.
Any questions?