Artificial General Intelligence The Shortest Path to a Positive Singularity

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Artificial General Intelligence The Shortest
Path to a Positive Singularity
Ari A. Heljakka GenMind Ltd
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Within thirty years, we will have the
technological means to create superhuman
intelligence. Shortly thereafter, the human era
will be ended When greater-than-human
intelligence drives progress, that progress will
be much more rapid
The Coming Technological Singularity Vernor
Vinge (1993)
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Two years after Artificial Intelligences
reach human equivalence, their speed doubles. One
year later, their speed doubles again. Six
months - three months - 1.5 months ...
Singularity. Plug in the numbers for current
computing speeds, the current doubling time, and
an estimate for the raw processing power of the
human brain, and the numbers match in  2021.
But personally, I'd like to do it sooner.
Staring into the Singularity 1.2.5 Eliezer S.
Yudkowsky (2001)
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Certainly my best current projected range of
2020-2060 is voodoo like anyone else's, but I'm
satisfied that I've done a good literature search
on the topic, and perhaps a deeper polling of the
collective intelligence on this issue than I've
seen elsewhere to date. To me, estimates much
earlier than 2020 are unjustified in their
optimism, and likewise, estimates after 2060 seem
oblivious to the full scope and power of the
processes in the universe. Nanotech.biz
interview withJohn Smart (2001)
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I set the date for the Singularity- representing
a profound and disruptive transformation in human
capability- as 2045. The nonbiological
intelligence created in that year will be one
billion times more powerful than all human
intelligence today." The Singularity is Near,
When Humans Transcend Biology - Ray Kurzweil
(2005)
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"One could argue that agriculture and the
industrial revolution represent other Singularity
situations, albeit weak ones compared to the one
which may be upon us next. But, while evolution
might take millions of years to generate another
psychological sea change as dramatic as the
emergence of modern humanity, technology may do
the job much more expediently. The technological
Singularity can be expected to induce rapid and
dramatic change in the nature of life, mind and
experience. The Path to Posthumanity Dr. Ben
Goertzel Stephan Bugaj (2006)
Ben Goertzel
Stephan Bugaj
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Credit Ray Kurzweil
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Credit Ray Kurzweil
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Singularity Enabling Technologies
Strong AI
Robotics
Nanotech
Biotech
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• Ray Kurzweil and some other leading futurists
  advocate a longer-term approach to AGI via brain
  mapping
• Major projects such as IBMs Blue Brain and
  Artificial Developments Ccortex are working in
  this direction.
• However, this approach requires AGI engineers to
  sit and wait for decades while neuroscientists
  figure out how to better map the brain, and the
  computer engineers build better hardware

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• Rather than waiting for the neuroscientists, the
  Novamente AGI design fills the knowledge gap via
  appropriate deployment of computer science
• This approach may feasibly lead to AGI equaling
  or surpassing human level intelligence before
  2020.

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Singularity Enabling Technologies
Strong AI
Robotics
Nanotech
Biotech
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Singularity Enabling Technologies
Strong AI
Robotics
Unfriendly goal system Unstable goal system
Nanotech
Matrix
Biotech
Gray goo
Race-specific pathogens
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Potential Dangers of a Greater-than Human
Intelligence AGI
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(No Transcript)
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Apr 2000 - WIRED
Why the future doesnt need us Bill Joy
(co-founded Sun Microsystems in 1982)
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G
N
R
Genetics
Nanotech
Strong AI
Robotics
R Robotic Strong AI
Inherently there will be no absolute protection
against strong AI. Although the argument is
subtle I believe that maintaining an open
free-market system for incremental scientific and
technology progress, in which each step is
subject to market acceptance, will provide the
most constructive environment for tech to embody
widespread humans values. - Ray Kurzweil (2005)
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Destruction
Totalitarian
RELINQUISH
EMBRACE
TECHNOLOGY
Fine-Grained Relinquishment
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Solution Augmentation Uploading?
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It's okay to fail at building AI. The dangerous
thing is to succeed at building AI and fail at
Friendly AI. Right now, right at this minute,
humanity is not prepared to handle this. We're
not prepared at all. The reason we've survived so
far is that AI is surrounded by a protective
shell of enormous theoretical difficulties that
have prevented us from messing with AI before we
knew what we were doing.
Why We Need Friendly AI-Eliezer Yudkowsky (2003)
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Novamentes Pragmatic Approach to Safer AGI
Hierarchical goal system with ongoing compassion
and Friendliness as part of the supergoal
Ethics initially taught and evaluated via
interactions in a simulated environment
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Proactionary Principle
Balance the risks of action and inaction. -
Max More (2004)
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Thank you!
Ari A. Heljakka GenMind Ltd
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DeGariss Law
The initial condition of the superhuman AI will
determine its ongoing evolution initially. -
Prof. Hugo de Garis (2006)