Mike Bell, Pierre-Yves Le Traon

1
An assessment of the effectiveness of GODAE and
proposals for future coordination
Mike Bell, Pierre-Yves Le Traon and the
International GODAE Steering Team
2
Scope and contents

• Assessment of effectiveness of GODAE and its
  coordination
• What aspects of coordination did GODAE get right
  ?
• Recap of Final symposium and some of the
  achievements during GODAE
• Difficulties
• Recommendations for observing system
• Proposals for future coordination
• Demands opportunities (challenges)
• Our ambitions
• Key points / Main ideas
• Proposed structure

3
What aspects of coordination did GODAE get right
?

• What characteristics of GODAE should we seek to
  continue into the future ?
• captured imagination and investment
• clear objectives and timetable
• ambitious and inclusive
• useful meetings and events
• Can be seen as Positive Lessons learnt

4
Captured imagination investment

• Inspiring rationale, vision and leadership
• The birth of Argo made the experiment plausible
• It generated a sense of purpose and excitement at
  working level
• It provided confidence to invest at the national
  programme and individual levels

5
Ambitious and inclusive

• Discussions of GODAE COMMON resulted in
• - collaboration between the operational
  research
• communities (with far reaching
  consequences)
• - an open data policy
• - intercomparisons of analyses and forecasts
• - sharing of expertise and experience in
• development of models and configurations and
  diagnosis of errors
• demonstrations of utility and the role of
  intermediate service providers
• - use of modern methods (web servers, ensembles
  etc)
• Not afraid to take calculated risks
• Mindful of the timetable and objectives

6
Useful meetings and events

• Characteristics of IGST
• Technical experts put in charge
• Focus on scientific advances for operational
  application
• Clear and ambitious but achievable objectives
• Global international scope
• Constructive refreshing specialist discussions
• Guidance/support/interest from Patrons
• GODAE Summer School First Symposium
• some excellent review articles and summaries
• good introductions to newcomers

7

Recap of Final Symposium and some of the
Achievements During GODAE Structured by the
diagram of the Functional Components of GODAE
3000 man-years in 6 minutes
8
(No Transcript)
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Measurement Network and Data Assembly

• Measurement Network
• Satellite (Stan Wilson)
• In situ (Candyce Clark)
• Argo (Dean Roemmich)
• Data Assembly and Processing
• GHRSST (Craig Donlon)
• Other data types (Pierre-Yves le Traon)

10
GHRSST Data Available in Common format with
uncertainty estimates
N-17/18 AVHRR GAC (9km)
GOES-E/W (5km)
AMSRE (25/12km)
N-17/18 AVHRR LAC (1km)
AATSR (1km)
MSG (5/10km)
www.ghrsst-pp.org
11
Observations assimilated into HYCOM via NCODA 9
October 8 November 2008
12
Altimeter Sea Level Anomaly and Argo Dynamic
Height Anomaly time series for two Argo
floats (from Guinehut et al., 2008)

a.
Float 5900026


R
0.88

rms
-
diff 26.8



b. Float 1900249

R 0.00

rms
-
diff 1538.0




GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008,
Nice, France
13
Data and Product Servers

• Capabilities developed (Frederique Blanc)
• Underpinning technologies (Jon Blower)

14
MERSEA Download services (via OPeNDAP)
Search and subset criteria
THREDDS Data servers From TAC/MFC
Search and download
Relevant datasets
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Open Geospatial Web Services
Web Feature Service
Simple features
Complex features
(plus many more, inc. Sensor Observation Service)
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Assimilation Centres

• GODAE systems in operation (Eric Dombrowsky)
• Ocean data assimilation systems (Jim Cummings)
• Advances in modelling (Eric Chassignet)
• Global mesoscale analyses
• forecasts (Harley Hurlburt)
• Regional mesoscale analyses
• forecasts (Masa Kamachi)

17
The Modelling Components
OGCM Domains Horiz. Res Vert. Grid Forcing
BLUELINK MOM4 Global 1/10 - 1 47 z-levels GASP 3-h
C-NOOFS NEMO Canada Atl. 1/4 50 z-levels EC/GEM 1-h
ECCO MIT Global 1x0.3 - 1 46 z-levels NCEP
FOAM NEMO GlobalReg 1/4G - 1/12R 50 z-levels UKMO 6-h
HYCOM HYCOM Global 1/12 32 hybrid NOGAPS 3-h
NLOM/NCOM NLOM/POM Global 1/32 - 1/8 7 42 hybrid NOGAPS
NMEFC LAP/CAS Tro. Pacific 2x1 14 z-levels NCEPclim
MERCATOR NEMO GlobalReg 1/4G - 1/12R 50 z-levels ECMWF 1-d
MFS NEMO Mediterranean 1/16 71 z-levels ECMWF 6-h
MOVE/MRI MRI.COM GlobalReg 1G - 1/2- 1/10 50 z-levels JMA 6-h
RTOFS HYCOM North Atlantic 4-18km 26 hybrid NCEP 3-h
TOPAZ HYCOM AtlArctic 11-16km 22 hybrid ECMWF 6-h
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The Assimilation Components
Scheme SST obs SSH obs In Situ Other
BLUELINK BODAS EnOI AMSR-E Jason 1Envisat T/S Profiles
C-NOOFS None None None None
ECCO Kalman Filt/Sm None Jason 1 T Profiles Clim
FOAM Anal. Cor. IAU OSTIA J1EnvisatGFO T/S Prof. ice conc
HYCOM NCODA MVOI SatIn situ J1EnvisatGFO T/S Prof. ice conc
NLOM/NCOM MODAS OI Nud MCSST (NLOM) J1EnvisatGFO MODAS T/S (NCOM)
NMEFC OVALS 3DVAR Reynolds Jason 1 T/S Profiles
MERCATOR SAM2 SEEK RTG SST J1EnvisatGFO T/S Profiles
MFS 3DVAREOFs AVHRR maps J1EnvisatGFO T/S Profiles
MOVE/MRI 3DVAREOFs MGDSST J1Envisat T/S Profiles
RTOFS 3DVARVert 1D Sat In Situ Jason 1Envisat T/S Profiles
TOPAZ EnKF (100 mbs) RTG SST DUACS MAPS Ice conc. Drift
19
2004-2006 Sea Surface Height (SSH) Variability
From satellite altimetry (CLS)
From a 1/12? Mercator Océan simulation without
data assimilation (using the NEMO model)
(in m2)
20
1/12 HYCOM SSH with drifting buoys overlaid
10 October 8 November 2008 only temperature
assimilated from drifting buoys
21
Product Assessment Research Users

• Ocean state estimate for climate (Tony Lee)
• Observing System Evaluations (Peter Oke)
• Validations and intercomparsions (Fabrice
  Hernandez)
• Biogeochemistry and ecology (Pierre Brasseur)
• Coastal modelling
• applications (Pierre de Mey)

22
Complementary data types mesoscale prediction

• 1/10o Bluelink system
• 6-month long OSEs starting December 2005

Oke, P. R., and A. Schiller (2007) Impact of
Argo, SST and altimeter data on an eddy-resolving
ocean reanalysis. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34,
L19601, doi10.1029/2007GL031549.
23
Decadal change of N. Atl. MOC at 26N estimated by
ECMWF ocean reanalysis product
(Balmaseda, Smith, and Haines, et al. 2007)

• Large month-to-month variability and related
  uncertainty in model data.
• Complex structure of trends (both in vertically
  meridionally).
• Upper-ocean warming enhances vertical T gradient
  to offset weakening MOC.

GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008,
Nice, France
24
Data-based validation of coastal-ocean systems
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Application Centres Users

• Pollution Monitoring Prediction (Bruce Hackett)
  
• Safety effectiveness of operations at sea
  (Fraser Davidson)
• Asia and Oceania applications (Jiang Zhu)
• Ocean initialisation for seasonal forecasts
  (Magdalena Balmaseda)
• Hurricane intensity forecasting (Gustavo Goni)
• Navy applications (Greg Jacobs)
• Offshore Industry (Ralph Rayner)

26
NOAA/NCEP intensity predictionRita (2005)
27
GODAE oil spill forecasting Future
perspectivesData access and accuracy

• Accuracy of ocean data
• Still the main source of oil spill forecast
  error.
• GODAE assimilation systems continue to improve
  forecast accuracy in the blue ocean (e.g.,
  Kuroshio)
• but still gross errors in some eddy-rich areas.
• Need more detailed currents in coastal and shelf
  seas ?
• Higher resolution models
• Nesting is preferable to direct use
• Tides must be included at some stage
• Improved forcing from atmosphere
  (high-resolution, high freq data)
• Assimilation of current data (HF radar, drifters)
• Need measures of accuracy to propagate into oil
  spill forecast results!

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Difficulties

• Funding for Argo altimetry still not secure
• Development of good quality systems forecasts
  took longer than expected
• Engaging interest of downstream users harder than
  anticipated
• Resources did not always match ambition
• Many national teams resources were limited or
  delayed
• Heavy reliance on a few special people
  (Christian, Neville, Michele, )
• Pro-active coordination from Project Office
  started late

29
Sustaining the global ocean observing system

• We need full statements of our prioritised
  requirements for research, development and
  operations as well as short-term priorities for
  advocacy
• Sustained observations are essential for climate
  research as well as operational services
• The observing systems required for climate
  research and weather forecasting provide much of
  the backbone of the observation system needed for
  operational services
• Global collaboration and coordination is
  essential to achieve best value for money
• S T development of satellite systems that are
  fully effective and as efficient as possible and
  hence fit for operational use is a long
  demanding process. This is insufficiently
  recognised and a major factor in funding crises

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The global ocean observing system
recommendations

• Main requirements based on discussions over the
  last few years
• Sustaining Argo and the global in-situ ocean
  observing system (GOOS, GCOS, JCOMM)
• Sustain altimetry. 3-4 altimeters required only
  plausible way to initialise ocean mesoscale. Need
  long term time-series of Jason satellites
  (climate reference).
• High precision and all weather SST needed as part
  of combined satellite/in situ SST measurement
  system to give highest absolute accuracy (and
  resolution) (GHRSST strategy)
• Sea-ice characteristics (microwave, SAR)
• Ocean colour (visible imagery) and development of
  an in-situ observing system for biogeochemical
  parameters using new methods is increasingly
  important
• Extend the observing systems to shelf and
  coastal zone

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Proposals for future coordination
32

• From an experiment towards a long-term
  oceananalysis forecasting international program
• GODAE OceanView

33
Evolution of GODAE systems

• Most GODAE groups have or are now transitioning
  towards operational or pre-operational status.
• GODAE systems need continuous improvements and
  should benefit from scientific technological
  advances in data processing, data serving,
  modeling and data assimilation (incl. evolution
  of the observing system).
• GODAE systems are also evolving to satisfy new
  requirements (e.g. coastal zone and ecosystem
  monitoring and forecasting, climate monitoring
  and reanalysis).
• Challenges require international collaboration
  and cooperation

34
New societal demands, more pressing requirements
for our systems

• Integrated descriptions of ocean state and
  characterisation detection of climate change in
  the ocean
• Forecasting in shelf-seas coastal waters
• Monitoring and management of the marine
  environment (including biogeochemistry
  ecosystems)
• Development of improved weather climate
  predictions (near coasts, weather, tropical
  cyclones, monsoons, seasonal and decadal
  predictions)
• Assessments of uncertainty in downscaling climate
  change predictions to coastal regions

35
GODAE OceanView Objectives

• Provide international coordination and
  leadership in
• The consolidation and improvement of global and
  regional analysis and forecasting systems
  (physics)
• The progressive development and scientific
  testing of the next generation of systems
  covering bio-geochemical and eco-systems and
  extending from the open ocean into the shelf sea
  and coastal waters.
• The exploitation of this capability in other
  applications (weather forecasting, seasonal and
  decadal prediction, climate change detection and
  its coastal impacts, etc).
• The assessment of the contribution of the various
  components of the observing system and scientific
  guidance for improved design and implementation
  of the ocean observing system.

36
Proposals for future coordination the main/key
points

• Retain
• a working-level scientific steering team
  responsible for a program of activities
  implemented at national level
• a core activity (modeling and data assimilation)
• an active Project Office and engaged Patrons
  group
• Develop or strengthen
• Task teams developing new capabilities in
  cooperation with other relevant international
  programs (CLIVAR, IMBER, OOPC,..)
• Links with observing systems (Argo, OST, GHRSST,
  space agencies)
• reporting to IOC, GOOS CEOS
• Coordinate with and complement the new JCOMM
  Expert Team on Operational Oceanographic
  Forecasting Systems (ET-OOFS)

37
GODAE OceanView Science Team

• CORE ACTIVITIES. A forum where the main
  operational and research institutions involved in
  global ocean analysis and forecasting can develop
  collaborations and international coordination.
• TASK TEAMS. These teams will address specific
  topics of particular importance to GODAE
  OceanView that require collaboration with
  international research programs (e.g. OOPC,
  CLIVAR, IMBER, SOLAS, WCRP) or other groups
  (e.g. coastal community).
• JCOMM. Operational aspects related to product
  harmonization and standardization and links with
  JCOMM will be carried out by the JCOMM ET-OOFS.

38
Proposed Initial Task Teams

• Intercomparison and Validation
• in cooperation with JCOMM ET-OOFS and CLIVAR
  GSOP
• Observing System Evaluation
• coordinated experiments new techniques with
  OOPC
• Links with observing system agencies
• Coastal Ocean and Shelf Seas
• Coupling open ocean/coastal zone. Seamless
  transition from the open sea down to the coastal
  zone.
• Marine Ecosystem Monitoring and Prediction
• In cooperation with IMBER
• Others to be defined later in relation with other
  communities (e.g. coupled data assimilation
  NWP community)

39
Science Team and Patrons

• The Science Team will consist of up to 30 members
  and include
• leading scientists from operational systems
• experts in key scientific fields
• representatives of key components of observing
  system
• chairs of Task Teams
• The Science Team will be co-chaired by Andreas
  Schiller and Eric Dombrowsky
• The Patrons group will be invited to Science Team
  meetings and provide advice on resources and
  funding priorities

40
Summary

• Operational oceanography faces many challenges
  with time scales ranging from weather to climate.
  It is inherently an international issue,
  requiring (long term) collaboration.
• GODAE OceanView will promote the development of
  ocean modelling and assimilation in a consistent
  framework to optimize mutual progress and
  benefit.
• It will consolidate and improve existing systems
  and through cooperation with other programs will
  extend their capabitlies (climate, coastal,
  ecosystems) and application areas.
• It will also promote the associated exploitation
  of improved ocean analyses and forecasts and
  provide a means to assess the relative
  contributions of and requirements for observing
  systems.

41
GODAE OceanView Objectives

• Provide international coordination and
  leadership in
• The consolidation and improvement of global and
  regional analysis and forecasting systems
  (physics)
• The progressive development and scientific
  testing of the next generation of systems
  covering bio-geochemical and eco-systems and
  extending from the open ocean into the shelf sea
  and coastal waters.
• The exploitation of this capability in other
  applications (weather forecasting, seasonal and
  decadal prediction, climate change detection and
  its coastal impacts, etc).
• The assessment of the contribution of the various
  components of the observing system and scientific
  guidance for improved design and implementation
  of the ocean observing system.