ASE Annual Conference Foresight in science and science education Sir David King Chief Scientific Adv

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ASE Annual ConferenceForesight in science
and science education Sir David KingChief
Scientific Adviser to HM Government

• 4 January 2007

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The global challenges of the 21st Century

• Sustainability
• Environment
• Energy
• Water
• Population
• Disease

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Meeting the challenges - Education and skills

• Vital to future economic success
• Government working in partnership with the
  education community, business and other
  stakeholders

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Government framework

• Science and Innovation Framework 2004-2014 Next
  Steps March 2006
• STEM Programme Report October 2006
• National STEM Director appointed - John Holman

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Science Education Teachers

• Aim to create an education and training
  environment that delivers the best in science
  teaching and learning at every stage

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The Science Learning Experience

• Introducing 21st Century Science GCSE
• Want year on year increase in numbers taking
  science A Levels
• Establishing Specialist Maths, Science and
  Computing Schools
• We need to make todays pupils the scientists,
  innovators and educators of the future

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Enriching Experiences

• Engaging pupils with real science real
  scientists
• SETNET
• SEAs Ambassadors and role models
• After school clubs

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Enriching Experiences

• OSI and DfES sponsored Ecsite-UK project
• Learned societies eg CREST from BA, TESS from
  Royal Society
• CREST to be launched tomorrow
• BME Pilot

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Beyond School

• Facilitating postgrad study
• Improving PhD funding
• Commitment to academic fellowships, launched in
  2004 and already awarded over 800 fellowships

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Total Number of HE Students Taking a SET related
First Degree
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Sustainable Development

• Each generation should leave at least as large a
  productive base for its successor as it inherited
  from its predecessor
• Productive Base
• Manufactured capital Social worth of
• Human capital these assets
• Natural/Environmental capital wealth of a
  nation
• Institutions, cultural coordinates

Source Partha Dasgupta
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World Population Growth, in Billions
Number of years to add each billion (year)
(1800)
123 (1930)
33 (1960)
15 (1975)
12 (1987)
12 (1999)
13 (2012)
16 (2028)
26 (2054)
Sources First and second billion Population
Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion
United Nations, World Population in 2300 (medium
scenario), 2003. Number of years to add each
billion (year)
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The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Birth rate
Natural
increase
Death rate
Time
Note Natural increase is produced from the
excess of births over deaths. Source www.prb.org
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Reaching Replacement Fertility
Average number of children per woman
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2002 Revision (medium scenario),
2003. downloaded from www.prb.org
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Africa

• Africa - population still rising by 2.4 p/a
  despite aids epidemic
• 49 least developed countries will triple in size
  during next 50 years
• education and availability of contraception will
  lower birth rate
• Empowerment of women

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Challenges of the 21st centuryfresh water
Source NERC, CEH Wallingford
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Africa and Water

• World Resource 12-14 million cubic metres
  available
• 1989 9,000 cub metres per person
• 2025 5,100 cub metres per person
• Population distribution does not equal water
  supply distribution

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Challenges of the 21st Century infectious
diseases
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Infectious Diseases
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Foresight The Detection and Identification of
Infectious Diseases

• Looked across plants, animals and humans
• Considered international as well as national
  issues
• Looked 10-25 years into the future
• Built upon the best work by others in this area

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Challenges of the 21st century food

• Can the world feed 9 billion people?
• Second Agricultural Revolution in past 20 years
• To meet demands of 9 billion people need growth
  rates at least equal to those in past 20 years
  (Ruttan) gt research urgent
• Increasing unused land is marginal
• Most commentators say YES, can feed 9 billion,
  but only with Food Aid and Trade

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Challenges of the 21st century climate change
and energy
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The earths energy budget
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383ppm (2006)
Fedorov et al, Science 312 (2006) 1485
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Source Hadley Centre
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Climate sensitivity
Source Hadley Centre
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Adapt and Mitigate

• We must adapt in preparation for the significant
  changes ahead and manage the risks country by
  country.
• We have to actively mitigate against the
  production of greenhouse gases by
• Switching to low carbon energy sources and
• Energy efficiency
• Developing new technologies

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Accelerated melting of Greenland ice sheet
Source Chen, J.L et al, Science Vol 313,
pp1958-1960 (2006)
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Possible flooding in the UK by 2080s
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Simulation Gaming, helping decision makers (
educators)
Flood Ranger
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Global dimensions of the mitigation problem
Source Carbon Trust
Source Carbon Trust
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Emissions path to stabilisation
Global emissions (gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent
gases per year)
Source Stern Review
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Energy
Source BP estimates
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Sustainable Energy Management and the Built
EnvironmentProject considering the potential
future role and relationship of centralised and
decentralised energy generation in delivering the
UKs long-term energy goals.
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Foresight
Sustainable Energy Management and the
Built Environment
Intelligent Infrastructure Systems
Tackling Obesities Future Choices
Detection and Identification of Infectious
Diseases
Mental Capital and Wellbeing
Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs
Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum
Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention
Cognitive Systems
Flood and Coastal Defence
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Developing robust government policy

• Intelligent Infrastructure Systems
• Produced scenarios of the future of movement
  based on technology take up and energy supply
• Impacts
• 7 Departments using to consider strategic
  implications for their policies
• Informing 2.8bn for growth area plan

• Cybertrust and Crime Prevention
• Produced scenarios on trust in ICT
• Impacts
• Led to changes to definition of fraud and
  creation of strategy for information assurance
• HO Minister recognised importance of tracking
  offenders

Touch me not
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Public engagement

• Flooding project
• Developed a simulation tool to explore decision
  impacts
• Impacts
• Used to communicate challenges of decisions on
  the Thames Barrier
• Used to educate engineers at the Environment
  Agency
• 1000 copies bought by US Marine Corps post New
  Orleans floods

• Drugs project
• Looked for key advances that could affect future
  of drug management
• Identified cognition enhancers for the healthy as
  a future issue
• Impacts
• Ministers from four departments agreed need to a
  national debate on the issues raised by the
  project

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Foresight Project Brain Science, Addiction and
Drugs
The project aimed to provide a challenging
vision as to how scientific and technological
advancement may impact on our understanding of
addiction and drug use over the next 20 years
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A sustainable future

• Science, modern medicine and technology have,
  since the industrial revolution provided us with
  societies in which we can live longer healthier
  lives than in the pre-industrial period.
• . Now we need to use our wealth and technology
  not only to manage our economies within finite
  natural resources but also to adapt to a warming
  planet while reducing the extent of that warming
  by drastically reducing CO2 emissions

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http//www.foresight.gov.uk/