Climate Action Network Discussion Paper on Viable Global Framework

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Climate Action Network Discussion Paper on Viable
Global Framework

• Bill Hare
• Greenpeace International

Visiting Scientist, Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
on sabbatical from Greenpeace International.
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State of UNFCCC/Kyoto Protocol System

• Current state of UNFCCC and Kyoto System
• USA repudiated protocol and will not rejoin under
  any circumstances without major changes eg target
  in Annex B
• Australia politically divided Government
  against, Opposition promised to ratify if elected
  (due 2004)
• Russian position uncertain but Kyoto opponents
  arguments are non viable economically. May not
  decide until 2005.
• EU presently engaged in unpleasant battle over
  NAPs for emission trading scheme (which has a
  legal basis independent of Kyoto)
• A number of Kyoto ratifiers are seeking access
  to the EU system

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System is working at present --- unpleasant
though it may be to watch..

• The Kyoto system appears to be working at present
  in spite of the US attack on it
• Entry into force of the KP will stabilize the
  system for few years
• Russian ratification is important but may not be
  fundamental to Kyoto ratifiers going ahead with 1
  CP. This depends on events in the next few
  years, but most likely not this year.

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What of the future?

• Climate policy postulate When the USA decides to
  act substantively it will use a domestic cap and
  trade system and it will seek to connect to
  international system
• If this is correct then one implication is that
  keeping Kyoto alive is one of the best ways to
  prepare the way for US re-entry.
• There is little evidence that if the US decides
  to act substantively it will choose anything
  other than a cap and trade system that is a
  binding on it as it is on others.

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Framework is Necessary

• Need a short, medium and long-term framework to
  ensure we stay in the tolerable window
• Other approaches such as intensity targets,
  fragmented approach, global sector will not
  ensure stay within the tolerable window
• Contraction and convergence while providing a
  framework is not a viable basis for a
  negotiable and practicable regime

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Framework Principles for Moving Forward

• Equity equal access to the atmospheric commons
• Give increasing weight to the aim of per capita
  emissions convergence over the course of the 21st
  century
• Intergenerational equity
• Historical responsibility
• Ability to pay and the capacity to act
• Not harm ability of countries to achieve
  sustainable development objectives
• Rio principles provision by developed
  countries of resources and funding for
  development.

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Three Track Approach
Track Three Adaptation Track for the most
vulnerable regions
Track Two Greening (decarbonisation) Track for
the developing countries not in the Kyoto Track
Track One Kyoto Track with legally binding
emission reduction in subsequent commitment
periods
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The Kyoto Track

• Legally binding, tradable emission limitations
  and reduction obligations
• Deep cuts by industrialized countries
• Expanding beyond Annex I according to a set of
  criteria
• Relative per capita emissions
• Per capita income
• Historical responsibility

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Greening (Decarbonisation) Track

• Majority of developing countries
• Designed to enable developing countries to follow
  a low carbon path to sustainable development
• Actions and policies should rapidly accelerate
  the introduction of new, sustainable technologies
  (often already tested in Track One countries)

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Adaptation Track

• Meet the needs of key vulnerable regions to
  assist with adaptation measures
• Funded by industrialised countries
• Compensation for the unavoidable impacts
• Current Kyoto and UNFCCC elements as base
• Adaptation Fund
• Special Climate Change Fund
• LDC Fund
• Decarb track countries also receive adaptation
  support

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Mitigation and Adaptation Linked
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How to decide level of action? Must be fair

• Three mitigation stages

Stage One All but LDCs involved in
decarbonization activities
Stage Two Countries move from Decarbonization
to Kyoto Track and switch from limited growth of
emissions to reductions of emissions (binding
obligation to stabilize)
Stage Three Main Reduction stage for developing
countries, but all Annex B should already be here
by the second commitment period
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Building blocks are there

• Adaptation tools exist, funds are lacking, need
  is extreme
• Decarbonisation links in with bringing climate
  into development pathways and ensuring a
  multi-beneficial approach
• Kyoto builds on previous knowledge and proof
  that if want to reduce emissions, binding,
  absolute caps are the only way forward

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A Fourth Track Tropical deforestation and
Article 2

• Stopping tropical deforestation is critical to
  meeting objectives of meeting Article 2 of UNFCCC
  for low temperature targets
• Tropical deforestation can itself cause regional
  climate changes with global implications
• Climate change could cause collapse of
  substantial areas of the Amazon forests
• Basic causative processes not limited to Amazon

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The Amazon, Climate and Human Activities

• Two way processes
• Human activities forest fragmentation,
  deforestation and degradation - are likely to
  lead to savannization and desertification along
  with regional climate changes
• Fragmentation, Fire, local climate feedbacks lead
  to drying out
• Global climate change and increased CO2 levels
  could drive forward feedback process that leads
  to drying out.
• Synergistic interactions between human activities
  leading to increased fire frequencies and
  savannization and global climate changes could
  lead to amplification of these effects

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Risk of Amazon forest collapse for warming of
2-3oC?

• A few related studies have identified a risk of a
  climate change induced collapse of the Amazon
  rainforests in response to global climate change.
• Cox, P. M., R. A. Betts, M. Collins, P. Harris,
  C. Huntingford, and C. D. Jones (2003). Amazon
  dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections
  for the 21st century. UK, Hadley Centre
• Cowling, S. A., P. M. Cox, R. A. Betts, V. J.
  Ettwein, C. D. Jones, M. A. Maslin, and S. A.
  Spall (2003). "Contrasting simulated past and
  future responses of the Amazon rainforest to
  atmospheric change." Philosophical Transactions
  of the Royal Society of London in press.

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Amazon dieback risk

• Serious risk with large consequences for
  biodiversity and climate system
• Cowling et al (2003)
• find that there is threshold at which tropical
  ecosystems exceed their capacity for
  internal/external feedback effects compensating
  of the deleterious effects of warming on tropical
  plants,
• speculate that the climate system is very close
  to this threshold at present
• Other results confirm this

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Hadley Centre Amazon projections
Cox, P.M, Betts, R.A et al (2003) Amazon
Dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections
for the 21st century submitted to Theoretical
and Applied Climatology.
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Hadley Centre Amazon projections
2oC range
Cox, P.M, Betts, R.A et al (2003) Amazon
Dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections
for the 21st century submitted to Theoretical
and Applied Climatology.
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Conclusions Maintaining momentum

• Kyoto Ratifiers need to keep moving with their
  implementation of 1CP commitments.
• Russia needs continued encouragement to ratify in
  order not to lose economic benefits
• Kyoto track further action discussions should
  begin
• Greening (Decarbonization) track discussions
  should begin on same time frame
• Adaptation track should be pulled together from
  disparate elements into unified adaptation track
  within the climate regime
• TRACK 4 Tropical deforestation.

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Probability of reaching EU 2oC target for
different CO2 stabilization levels
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550
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450