RECENT PROGRESS IN THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN REDUCING POVERTY IN AFRICA AND PERSPECTIVES ON THE WAY FORWARD

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RECENT PROGRESS IN THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURAL
DEVELOPMENT IN REDUCINGPOVERTY IN AFRICA AND
PERSPECTIVES ON THE WAY FORWARD

• ALEJANDRO NIN PRATT
• Research Fellow
• OUSMANE BADIANE
• Africa Coordinator
• International Food Policy Research Institute

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OUTLINE

• Why is agriculture important for Africa?
• Agricultures past performance and lessons to be
  learned
• Success stories behind recent changes
• The way forward

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IMPORTANCE OF AGRICULTURE
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AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION IN
AFRICA

• Agriculture contributes with a significant share
  of total production in Africas economy
• Agricultural growth drives growth in other
  sectors of the economy
• Agriculture plays central role in African exports
• Most poverty still concentrated in rural areas
• Agricultural growth drives overall income growth
  in rural areas
• Implications
• Agriculture significantly contributes to economic
  growth
• Reduces overall poverty, hunger, and malnutrition
  more than any other sector

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EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL GROWTHON OVERALL RURAL
INCOMES
Incremental income from 1 additional revenue
from agricultural tradables
O. Badiane, based on Delgado et al (1988)
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AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
AGR. EXPORT AND DOMESTIC GROWTH
AGR. EXPORT AND DOMESTIC GROWTH
DOMESTIC GROWTH
EXPORT GROWTH
0.04 To 1.83
1 Growth
O. Badiane
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AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
AGR. GROWTH AND INDUSTRIAL GROWTH
INDUST. GROWTH
AGRIC. GROWTH
1 To 1.32
1 Growth
O. Badiane
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LOW AGRICULTURAL INCOMES ARE GENERALLY CORRELATED
WITH HIGH POVERTY RATES
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GHANA AGRICULTURAL-LED GROWTH IS MORE PRO-POOR
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FASTER AGRICULTURAL GROWTH IS KEY TO POVERTY
REDUCTION IN AFRICA

• The most effective way to reduce poverty is to
  raise the productivity of resources that poor
  people depend on for their livelihood
• Agricultural land
• Agricultural labor
• Off-farm rural labor

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AGRICULTURES PAST PERFORMANCE
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TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL AND GDP GROWTH
M. Johnson
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AGRICULTURAL GROWTH IS SPREADING
Badiane and Ulimwengu
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SO IS ECONOMIC GROWTH
Badiane and Ulimwengu
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TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
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SUCCESS STORIES EXPLAINING CHANGE
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POLICY CHANGES

• One of the most fundamental shifts in the
  development strategy for Africa was to view
  agriculture not as a backward sector but as the
  engine of growth, an important source of export
  revenues and the primary means to reduce
  poverty. (Kherallah et al. ,2000)

1996-2005
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AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND POLICY CHANGES
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SUCCESS IN AGRICULTURE (I)

• CASSAVA (Nigeria, Ghana and Southern Africa)
• New varieties and modern disease fighting
  research (Nigeria and Ghana and Southern Africa).
  
• MAIZE (West Africa)
• Improved yield and nutritional content of
  open-pollinating varieties instead of hybrids.

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SUCCESS IN AGRICULTURE (II)

• COTTON (Francophone West Africa)
• Successful organization and coordination of the
  production chain with technical innovations (high
  yield varieties, fertilizer use, access to
  equipments)
• RICE (West Africa)
• The Africa Rice Center (WARDA) produced their
  first inter-specific hybrids combining hardiness
  and wed suppression of African species with the
  high yields of the Asian varieties

Burkina Faso cotton farmers (Brahima
Ouedraogo/IRIN)
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SUCCESS IN AGRICULTURE (III)

• SMALLHOLDER DAIRYING (Kenya)
• Decontrol of milk pricing in 1992 available
  technology (crossbred cows) spurred a surge in
  production and commercialization of milk in
  informal markets.
• CUT FLOWER EXPORTS (Kenya)
• Increased from 13 million in 1970 to 155
  million in 1999

credit Smallholder Dairy Project
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INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES

• NEW PARTNERSHIP FOR AFRICAS DEVELOPMENT (NEPAD)
• Address challenges facing African continent
• COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
  PROGRAM (CAADP)
• Framework for restoration of agricultural growth,
  food security, and rural development with key
  principles and targets
• 6 average annual sector growth
• Allocation of 10 of national budgets to
  agriculture
• Exploitation of regional complementarities and
  cooperation
• Accountability, partnerships, regional
  coordination

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THE WAY FORWARD
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IMPLICATIONS FOR COUNTRY AGRICULTURAL
GROWTHRequired annual agricultural growth rates
to meet MDG1
S. Fan (2007)
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REALITY CHECKProgress against CAADP 10 Budget
Goal (2004)
S. Fan (2007)
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POVERTY OUTCOMES UNDER CURRENT GROWTH
TRENDS(Poverty Headcount, 1/day, 2005)
S. Fan. 2007
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FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IS POSSIBLE
60
Share of Malnourished Children in SSA
50
40
33
33
30
28
30
Percent
17
20
7
10
0
1997
2015
2025
1997
2015
2025
CURRENT TRENDS
ALTERNTIVE SCENARIO
O. Badiane, based on Rosegrant et al (2006)
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LESSONS FOR AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND POVERTY
REDUCTION STRATEGIES

• Agriculture remains the main engine of poverty
  reducing growth for the near future
• Recent performance is encouraging but still below
  required levels
• What did we learn from success factors behind the
  recent growth performance?
• How should we use this experience to sustain and
  broaden the recovery process? What should change?
  What should we bring into the process?