Development of Wildland Fire Emission Inventories with the BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework

1
Development of Wildland Fire Emission Inventories
with the BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework

• Sean Raffuse, Erin Gilliland, Dana Sullivan, Neil
  Wheeler, and Lyle Chinkin
• Sonoma Technology, Inc., Petaluma, California
• Sim Larkin, Robert Solomon, Tara Strand
• U.S. Forest Service AirFIRE Team
• Thompson Pace
• U.S. EPA OAQPS
• Presented at the
• 7th Annual Community Modeling and Analysis System
  (CMAS) Conference
• Chapel Hill, North Carolina
• October 7, 2008

STI-3457
2
Background

• NASA Decision Support
• NASA-STI-USFS Partnership
• SMARTFIRE Fire Information
• BlueSky Framework Fuels, Consumption, and
  Emissions
• EPA Work Assignment
• Emission Inventory for Wildland Fires
• Satellite Mapping Automatic Reanalysis Tool
  for Fire Incident Reconciliation

3
Emission Inventory Processing

• Scope
• Contiguous United States
• August 2002 through 2006
• Wildfires, Wildfire Use, prescribed burning
• Agricultural burning excluded
• BlueSky Pathway
• Fire information SMARTFIRE
• Fuel loading FCCS (Fuel Characteristic
  Classification System)
• Fuel consumption Consume 3.0
• Emissions FEPS (Fire Emission Production
  Simulator)

4
BlueSky Pathway

• BlueSky Framework 3.0

ICS-209 SMARTFIRE Other Rx Sys
FCCS NFDRS Hardy LANDFIREAg Other
CONSUME 3 FEPS FOFEM ClearSky (Ag)Satellite Other
FEPSWRAP FOFEM Rx / WF IdealizedManualOther
EPM FEPSFOFEM Literature Other
Briggs FEPS WRAP Multi-coreDaysmoke Other
CALPUFF CMAQ HYSPLIT
5
Data Sources

• ICS-209 reports AirFIRE, Fire and Aviation
  Management Web Applications (FAMWEB) web site,
  and Tom Pace
• HMS fire detects NOAA Hazard Mapping System
  (Mark Ruminski)
• MODIS fire detects USFS Remote Sensing
  Applications Center (used to fill gaps in HMS
  data)
• Fuel moisture USFS Wildland Fire Assessment
  System
• Moderate Resolution Imaging
  Spectroradiometer

6
Annual PM2.5 Primary Emissions
(2003 - 2006, Lower 48 States)
Monthly Totals
400
350
2003
2004
2005
2006
300
(ktons)
250
200
2.5
PM
150
100
50
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
May
7
Annual Average PM2.5 Wildland Fire Emission
Density(2003 2006)
8
Average Monthly Wildland Fire PM2.5
Emissions (2003-2006)
Month
9
Area Burned vs. PM2.5 Emissions
10
Effect of Different Fire Information Sources

• ICS-209s only
• This was BlueSkys previous data feed.
• ICS-209s report cumulative area burned.
• We subtracted the previous days area from
  todays to get the daily area burned

300
y 104x
250
2
R
0.66

• MODIS Terra and Aqua only
• This is the most commonly used satellite-derived
  fire data set
• We developed acres burned per pixel relationship
  by examining 30 wildfires
• Used 100 acres per pixel

200
Acres Burned (Thousands)
150
100
50
0
0
1000
2000
3000
Pixel Count
11
SMARTFIRE vs. MODIS vs. ICS-209Area Burned
12
Differences Between MODIS and HMS

• Because HMS includes GOES and AVHRR derived fire
  pixels in addition to MODIS, it detects more
  fires overall.
• This is especially true in the southeast, where
  fires are often small and/or short lived.
• In addition to the increased coverage, HMS
  provides human quality control.

13
Yearly Totals
Overall Consumption Rate (tons/acre) Overall Consumption Rate (tons/acre)
ICS-209 10.0
MODIS 17.6
SMARTFIRE 11.9
14
12
Area Burned
10
Million Acres
8
Area Burned
6
4
2
0
Fuel Consumed
MODIS consumption rate is much higher than the
other two. Why?
MODIS consumption rate is much higher than the
other two. Why?
Fuel Consumed
PM2.5 Emitted
14
SMARTFIRE vs. MODIS vs. ICS-209 PM2.5 Emissions
15
Aspen Fire, Arizona 2003
16
Aspen Fire Acres Burned vs. Emissions
Total
14
Helicopter 84,733
Acres Burned - Aspen Fire, Arizona
ICS209
12
ICS-209 84,750
SMARTFIRE
10
SMARTFIRE 80,896
8
Thousand Acres
6
4
2
0
6/17
6/20
6/23
6/26
6/29
7/2
7/5
7/8
7/11
Total
ICS-209 8,281
SMARTFIRE 3,659
17
B B Complex, Oregon 2003
18
Total
B B Complex, Oregon 2003
Helicopter 90,800
30
ICS-209 91,500
Acres Burned - BB Complex, Oregon
25
MODIS 189,800
20
SMARTFIRE 117,100
15
Thousand Acres
10
5
0
9/13
8/19
8/24
8/29
9/3
9/8
Total
ICS-209 10,700
MODIS 73,100
SMARTFIRE 44,200
19
Future Work

• Continued validation and improvement of fire size
  parameters
• Further exploration of high consumption rate when
  using MODIS
• Differences with high resolution fuel loading
  data (LANDFIRE)
• 30-m spatial resolution is finer scale than the
  satellite fire information
• Will use helicopter-flown perimeters or high
  resolution satellite burn scars to determine area
  burned
• Smoke and Emissions Model Intercomparison Project
  (SEMIP)

20
Acknowledgments

• Funding from National Fire Plan, USFS, Joint
  Fire Science Program, EPA, DOI, and NASA ROSES
  DSS
• Our many collaborators and partners
• Tom Pace (EPA)
• Amber Soja (NIA)
• Mark Ruminski and John Simko (NOAA NESDIS)
• Roger Ottmar and Susan Pritchard (USFS-FERA)

Thank you!
Information www.getBlueSky.org
Contact sraffuse_at_sonomatech.com