CRPAQS Modeling and SIP Support

1
CRPAQS Modeling and SIP Support

• December 12, 2003
• Policy Committee Meeting

2
Background

• Modeling designed to meet SIP schedule for PM10
  SIP Update, followed by PM2.5 SIP
• Effort to meet SIP schedules will require
  accelerated efforts by proposed contractors and
  ARB/District staff

3
SIP Schedules

• SJV PM10 SIP Update - March 2006
• Preliminary PM2.5 Designations - February 2004
• Final PM2.5 Designations - December 2004
• PM2.5 SIP - December 2007

4
Recommended Modeling Approach

• Application of two complementary modeling
  approaches
• CMAQ
• UCD/CalTech
• Focus modeling tasks on core SIP tasks
• meteorological model evaluation
• episodic base case modeling
• model performance evaluation
• control strategy assessment

5
Contractor Deliverables

• Episodic base case model for winter 2000/2001
  period
• Performance evaluation of model base case
• All model inputs and outputs provided to
  ARB/District staff

6
ARB/District Responsibilities

• Sensitivity runs of episodic base case to
  evaluate control strategy effectiveness
• Reassess future year attainment demonstration

7
SIP Schedule and CRPAQS Modeling Milestones for
PM10

• ARB/District staff complete control strategy
  assessment

• Submit PM10 SIP Update

Mar 2006

• Initiate air quality modeling contracts

• Complete air quality modeling base case for CMAQ
• Deliver base case run to ARB/District staff

• Initial performance evaluation of model base-case
  runs

• Complete air quality modeling base case for
  UCD/CalTech
• Deliver base case run to ARB/District staff

8
Contractor Recommendations

• Contractor Task Funding
• Sonoma Technology Met Modeling 125,000
• U.C. Davis AQ Modeling 460,000
• 
  (UCD/CalTech) (computers)
• AER Corporation AQ Modeling 175,000
• (CMAQ)
• Envair (Steve Reynolds) Performance 12,000
• Evaluation