The Iraqi Invasion 2003: was the desire to control Iraqi oil a primary motivational factor

1
The Iraqi Invasion 2003was the desire to
control Iraqi oil a primary motivational factor?

• Andrew Vandermeer
• 11-16-07
• GPY 495

2
The War

• Iraqi Invasion began on March 17, 2003
• Primary Forces - U.S., U.K., Peshmerga
• Secondary Forces - Australia, Poland, Denmark
• Special forces role
• April 9 2003, US forces capture Baghdad
• Major combat operations have ceased George W.
  Bush May 1, 2003

3
Oil Reserves

• Worlds third largest proven petroleum reserves
• 115 billion barrels of proven reserves
• 40 to 100 billion barrels of recoverable oil
• Source Energy Information Administration, 2007

4
Extraction

• Middle Eastern Oil extraction costs
• .50 to 2.50 per barrel
• European and American Extraction costs
• Upwards of 13.75 per barrel
• 11.25 difference per barrel
• Source Kubursi, 2006

5
Methods

• Was the desire to control Iraqi Oil a primary
  motivational factor in the decision to invade
  Iraq?
• Hot topic politically
• Oil export destination countries used as proxy
• Empirical data

6
Economics
Table 1 Gross petroleum imports from Iraq, by
receiving country, 2002 to 2006 (thousands of
barrels per day)
Source EIA
7
Economics
Table 2 Percentage of Total Iraqi oil exports by
destination country, 2002 to 2006.

• 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
• United States 45.6 61.5 56.4 56.0 51.3
• Canada 8.4 9.8 6.3 6.8 6.3
• France 8.0 2.0 2.8 3.1 6.7
• Italy 5.4 0.9 7.0 12.5 12.8
• Netherlands 6.9 3.3 2.0 1.7 3.1
• Spain 4.8 4.0 8.9 6.2 6.2
• Turkey 8.2 2.2 2.5 0.2 1.0
• Japan 1.3 2.8 7.8 2.5 3.9

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Consumption
Table 3 United States oil imports from Iraq per
month and total daily United States oil
consumption, March 2003 to August 2007 (millions
of barrels)

• Imports (Monthly) Consumption (Daily)
• Peak24.8 Peak21.9
• Average 16.3 Average 20.6

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Economics

• September 1998 February 2003 (54 Months)
• 5.71 US Imports originated in Iraq
• March 2003 August 2007 (54 months)
• 4.02 US Imports originate in Iraq
• Data Source EIA

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Economics
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Economic Results

• Imports from Iraq have no distinguishable pattern
• Small percentage of oil consumed in US is Iraqi
  in origin
• Overall percentage going down (relative
  importance)
• US imports significantly more oil from other
  countries

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Strategic Implications

• Deny use of essential resource to enemy
• Ensure uninterrupted supply for US and allies
• Enemy is terrorists, not a state

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Strategic Implications Results

• Oil denial makes more sense as a Cold war era
  tactic
• Not effective versus terrorists

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Conclusion

• Statistics do not support the argument that the
  US is controlling the distribution of oil in a
  way that benefits the U.S. or its allies
• Does not make sense strategically
• The desire to control Iraqi oil was not a primary
  motivational factor in the decision to invade
  Iraq in 2003

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Limitations of study

• Statistical data was from one source
• Further research needed to verify this data