Review of Foresight Activities in Czech Republic, Hungary, and Bulgaria Dr' Michael Keenan PREST, Un

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Review of Foresight Activities in Czech Republic,
Hungary, and BulgariaDr. Michael KeenanPREST,
University of Manchester, UKForeTech
Conference, Sofia, Bulgaria27 May 2004
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Outline

• Key STI challenges facing the region and how
  Foresight could help
• Why this review?
• Introducing the analytical framework
• Variations and similarities between exercises
• Emerging issues from case studies
• Where to next?

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Barriers to a Knowledge Economy

• Lack of funding
• System linkage failures and poor coordination
• Short term thinking and reactive mode action
• Implementation failures on strategies
• Disconnection of STI from socio-economic problems
  (and science from innovation)
• Low STI intensity amongst industry
• Human resource crisis (brain drain, demography)
• Under-developed STI planning capabilities

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How could Foresight help?

• Participative
• Transparent
• Forward-looking
• Open to new and/or different perspectives
• Creative and disturbing
• But also structured
• Enables mutual learning, strategic conversations
  (dialogue), networking, and partnership
• Can lead to consensus
• Action-oriented, with priorities and
  recommendations
• But Foresight is no panacea!!!

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Why this review?

• Several successful exercises now undertaken in
  the region any lessons specific to the region?
• Provide mutual learning between practitioners and
  sponsors
• Elicit lessons to inform future EC support
  measures
• Explain variation and similarities in approach
• But note different levels of activity . . .
• To include also examples from Romania, Estonia,
  Malta and Cyprus (and possibly Greece and Turkey)

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Framework Elements

• Rationales
• Coalition Building
• Objectives
• Time Horizon
• Coverage
• Resources
• Participation
• Consultation

• Methods
• Organisation Management
• Outputs
• Dissemination Implementation
• Outcomes

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Similarities

• Coalition building emphasis upon widespread
  involvement using similar tactics
• Organisation and Management sponsoring
  organisation, steering group, panels, project
  office secretariat, outside expertise
• Outputs reports, background material,
  recommendations for action

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Variations (1)

• Rationale/Objectives
• Cz identifying research directions gt Key
  Technologies
• Hu wiring up the innovation system gt UK-style
  Foresight
• Bu introducing Foresight gt discreet Foresight
  pilot studies
• Time Horizon
• Cz 10 years
• Hu 15-25 years
• Bu 12 years
• Financial and Time Resources
• Cz 500,000 over 12 months (2001)
• Hu 1m over 3 years (1997-2000)
• Bu 40,000 over 12 months (2003-04)

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Variations (2)

• Coverage
• Cz 15 sectoral and thematic panels
• Hu 7 socio-economic issue panels
• Bu 2 pilot panels on biotech and e-govt
• Participation/Consultation
• Cz panels and workshops (gt1,000 people)
• Hu panels, workshops, Delphi (lt3,000 people)
• Bu panels and workshops (gt300 people)
• Methods
• Cz panels, interviews, SWOT, brainstorming,
  prioritisation
• Hu panels, brainstorming, workshops, Delphi,
  scenarios
• Bu panels, SWOT, brainstorming, scenarios

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Variations (3)

• Dissemination activities
• Cz two workshops, web site, CD-ROM,
  presentations to ministry
• Hu scores of workshops, web forum, presentations
  to Parliamentary committees and govt ministries
• Bu conference, media articles, still in process
• Outcomes
• Cz research projects in the National Research
  Programme, discussion forums, knowledge of
  Foresight practice
• Hu new ways of thinking, new understanding of
  relations between technological and
  socio-economic, new programmes, lasting effects
  on emerging national strategies
• Bu interest in national foresight, evidence of
  new partnerships

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Some issues to consider

• Funding Foresight exercises
• Remuneration of participants
• Proximity to policy makers?
• Challenging established mindsets and practices
• Overcoming mutual distrust
• Implementation deficits and delays
• Disseminating Foresight practice and capacity
  throughout society gt Foresight Culture

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Where to next?

• National Foresight
• Cz second exercise underway
• Hu second exercise under consideration
• Bu possible national exercise starting from 2005
• Developments elsewhere?
• Foresight practice adopted at many institutional
  and governance levels
• Creating a demand for capacity-building
• Pressure for consolidation and learning gt
  evaluation
• EC developments

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Thank you!Dr. Michael KeenanPREST, University
of Manchester, UKForeTech Conference, Sofia,
Bulgaria27 May 2004