CDM Agroforestry Project and Sustainable Development: Indonesian Case

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CDM Agroforestry Project and Sustainable
Development Indonesian Case

• Rizaldi Boer
• Climatology Laboratory
• Department of Geophysics and Meteorology,
• Bogor Agricultural University
• rboer_at_fmipa.ipb.ac.id
• Workshop on Sustainable Development Indicators,
  NCU Taiwan, 17-19 November 2001

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Intoduction

• Afforestation and reforestation has been adopted
  to be eligible under CDM.
• Degraded land/forest in Indonesia reaches 30 Mha
• Rehabilitation fund is limited
• CDM provide alternative financial mechanism for
  supporting rehabilitation activities
• Agroforestry might be potential for CDM (?).
  This presentation will
• highlight some findings from studies related to
  the impact of agroforest systems on
  socio-environmental indicators
• describe an alternative approach to measure the
  environmental additionality of the project

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Some principles suggested by TERI (2000) in
defining sustainable development

• There must not be local opposition towards the
  projects, and the projects must not impose burden
  on local communities.
• There must not be environmental burden shifting.
• The project must provide multiple social and
  economic benefits, as well as environmental
  benefits.

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Score of relative importance of sustainable
development criteria
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Agroforestry Systems in Jambi (Anonimous, 2001)
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Social and Environmental Conditions of Different
Land Use Options (Murdiyarso et al., 2001)
A 0no problem outside of normal farmer
management domain, -0.5probem that may challenge
farmers adaptice capacity -1serious problem.
B equivalent human population that can be
supported C 0no change, -0,5some concern
justified, -1serious concern justified
(Murdiyarso et al. (2001)
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Likely impact of the various land-use practices
on watershed functions (Murdiyarso et al., 2001)
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CDM Projects

• Techniques which are able to quantify the impact
  of changing land use pattern resulted by the
  projects on environmental (in particular carbon
  stock) and socio-economic factors inside and
  outside project sites are required in order to
  ensure that the benefit is real and measurebale
  (No leakage)
• Carbon leakage is defined as the increase in net
  GHG emissions (leakage) or decrease of net GHG
  emissions (spillover) outside the project/policy
  area or time horizon. The same concept can also
  be applied on non-GHG impacts e.g., costs and
  benefits of a project experienced outside the
  target spatial and temporal domain, but these are
  generally referred to as externalities.

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Metholodological Approach

• Land-based accounting system (IPCC, 2001)
• Q is total carbon sequestered or released
• i1, 2, 3,, M index for landscape unit
• j1, 2, 3, , N index for carbon pools (e.g. AGB,
  BGB, etc.)
• k1, 2, 3, , R index for adjustment
• TB and TE are year at beginning and end of
  project commitment period
• A is correction factor (e.g. baseline, leakage
  etc.)

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What we should answer ?

• What are the likely changes in land use and land
  use cover change in the future with and without
  carbon sink projects ?

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Approach to answer the question ?

• Logit(Pi) a ?(bjxj)
• P is probability of land cover change-i,
• a intercept and
• bj coefficient of independent variable xj
• Pi elogit(Pi)/(1elogit(Pi))
• If Pi 0 (no cover change) and 1 (cover change
  occur)
• Pcrit 0.5 might be used to define whether cover
  change occur or not

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Step of Analysis
Develop the logit regression using past data
(image analysis)
Determine factors that drive the cover change
Define trajectory of land use/cover change
Project the likely change in the predictors with
without project case
Apply the equations and define the cover change
Validate the model
Develop projection of carbon stock with and
without project case
Estimate the carbon stock with and without
project case
Estimate the Leakages
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Source Murdiyarso and Wasrin, 2000 and Palm et
al. 1999
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Selection of Independent variables for the
logistic model ?

• All factors that may drive conversion of a given
  landuse to others should be known
• distance of land to road, to river, to market,
  and to settlements, slope,
• population density
• NPV of activity in a given land
• level of income and level of dependency on forest
• wood demand (local, national)
• etc.

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Equations PRF-SCF SCF-AGF PRF-APL PRF-
APL etc. etc
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Apply the equations PRF-SCF
SCF-AGF PRF-APL PRF-APL etc. etc
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(No Transcript)
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Relationship between C Stocks and Plant Species
Richness in Jambi Transect (Murdiyarso et al.,
2001)
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Evaluate the historical change in land use
pattern, identify faktors that drive forest/land
conversion, and develop model to define
forest/land conversion
Contribution of CDM projects to SD measured
Develop baseline and mitigation scenarios
Dynamic models to evaluate the change in
socio-economics and environmental condition
under baseline and mitigation scenarios
Kyoto Protocol
CCC, CBD, CCD, others
Sink-CDM projects and other carbon sink projects
Project the possible changes in factors that
drive carbon leakage (physical factors and some
important development indicators) with without
CDM projects
A set of land use scenarios under baseline and
mitigation scenarios
Apply the model and estimate the likely change
in land use pattern with (Mitigations) and
without CDM projects (Baseline)
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Conculding Remark

• Agroforestry may provide three environmental
  services namely carbon storage, biodiversity and
  hydrological services and contribute to the
  improvement of socio-economic condition.
• The magnitude impact of the agroforestry
  activities on environmental services would be
  depends on types of trees, type of management,
  and their position in the landscape as well as
  the change in other development indicators due to
  their implementation.
• Simple logit regression and emperical models
  could be promoted to be used to quantify the
  impacts.

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THANK YOU