Ways forward with developing working sustainable biomass markets International Workshop: Woodfuel Su

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Ways forward with developing working sustainable
biomass markets International Workshop
Woodfuel Supply Chain Sharing Experiences,
Warwick - United Kingdom, September 14-19, 2008.

• André Faaij
• Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40
• Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University

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Problems of bioenergy today

• GHG balances not OK
• Endless subsidies needed.
• Land and water constrain bioenergy to marginal
  levels.
• Increases food prices and not good for farmers.
• Other alternatives (solar, efficiency, hydrogen)
  are better and really sustainable.

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THIS hasnt changed (on the contrary) Houston
we have a problem!

• Peak oil
• Peak soil
• Peak water
• Peak biodiversity loss
• Peak population
• Peak GDP

• Climate
• Agriculture
• Energy
• Biodiversity
• Poverty development

And it is urgent!
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Energy climate crisis can only be tackled by a
portfolio of all options we have available.
GHG mitigation Potentials IPCC AR4, 2007
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Agricultural land use!

• We need a lot more food (especially protein).
• We dont have (a lot) more (agricultural) land.
• Agriculture and livestock main threat for
  biodiversity (today), main consumer of water,
  main emitter of GHGs.
• Agriculture and poverty interlinked 70 of the
  worlds poor in rural setting
• Agricultural productivity is low on large parts
  of the globe.
• Such agricultural practices often unsustainable
  as such.
• Poverty (and lack of investment) key driver for
  unsustainable land use (erosion, forest loss).

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Uncertainties and key issues

• Water resources
• Management of biodiversity
• Interaction with conventional markets (food,
  forestry).
• Proper GHG accounting and land-use management.
• Balanced economic development (macro micro
  scale).

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Whats it gonna be?
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Integration
Pfff, its complex
Dornburg et al., 2008
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Limitations in potentials agri yields

• Compact food production gtBiomass yield increase

Dornburg et al., 2008
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Yields perennials 3x annual
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Limitations in degraded land, protected areas
and water
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Impacts on (woody) crop potentials
Dornburg et al., 2008
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OverallPicture

• Yes, biomass can play a significant role in
  future energy supply

Dornburg et al., 2008
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Key uncertainties biomass potentials
Dornburg et al., 2008
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So

• Investment in agriculture (and livestock) is
  essential (2nd green revolution)
• This is feasible (and necessary)
• with increased water use efficiency, less land,
  protection of soils and better incomes.
• and essential for food security.
• Bioenergy can get the money and sustainable
  economic activity into the rural regions

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A future vision on global bioenergy
GIRACT FFF Scenario project Faaij, 2008
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Certification bioenergy ongoing initiatives

• Governments UK, NL, D, B, and more EU nations
  EC, US, DCs
• NGOs International bodies.
• Market initiatives/multistakeholder roundtables
  on palm, soy, sugar and biofuels, utilities,

IEA Task 40Van Dam et al., 2008 Biomass
Bioenergy. www.bioenergytrade.org
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Cramer Cie. minimum safeguard-gt stabilisation-gt
improvement

• GHG balance -gt Chain performance (30-80..)
• Land-use/competition with food reporting to be
  developed.
• Biodiversity -gt reporting/FSC/RSPO to be
  developed.
• Wellfare -gt Reporting EPI to be developed
  further.
• Well being -gt ILO, Social accountability
  standards, etc.
• Environment
• Waste law, GPGs
• Agrochemicals law, GPGs (further development).
• Soil quality reporting/monitoring (further
  development).
• Water quality quantity law, reporting/monitorin
  g (further development).

Cramer et al., 2007
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Certification bioenergy concerted action

• First time that governments actually try to set
  sustainability criteria for a commodity! -gt
  Paradigm shift with implications for food
  products, fodder, materials etc.
• This takes time (allow for learning).
• Concerns differ palm oil/soy bean/corn most
  debated, other (residues, wood) largely approved
• Methodological issues to be resolved
  competition, biodiversity, a.o.
• Global convergence, dialogue and deployment
  priority (leadership needed).

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Operationalisation of sustainability criteria
Criteria
land availability
deforestation competition with food
production biodiversity soil erosion fresh
water nutrient leaching pollution from
chemicals employment child labour wages
Impact
yield
quantity
costs
cost supply curve
crop management system
Smeets et al., 2005/2008
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Ethanol in Brazil the costs of compliance with
various sustainability criteria compared to the
reference situation
Smeets, Junginger, Faaij, Walter, Dolzan,
2006/2008
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Estimated future costs of sugarcane and ethanol
production assuming 8 annual growth
Explaining the experience curve Cost reductions
of Brazilian ethanol from sugarcane J.D. van den
Wall Bake, M. Junginger, A. Faaij, T.Poot, A. da
Silva Walter Biomass Bioenergy, 2008
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Land use change Indonesia
Wicke, et al., 2008 (forthcoming)
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GHG emissions for different palm oil production
and supply systems
Wicke, et al., Biomass Bioenergy, 2008
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GHG Balances and land conversion issues
Forested peatland extremely high
emissions Natural rainforest high emissions Base
case - Logged over forest emissions about half
of modern natural gas power Degraded land CO2
uptake
Wicke, et al., Biomass Bioenergy, 2008
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Yield developments in Europe
Historic yield development ? example
wheat Average yields plotted for The Western
European Countries The Central and Eastern
European Countries Significant difference!
Wit Faaij, 2008
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Yield projections Europe

• Observed yield
• CEEC and WEC
• Linear extrapolation of
• historic trends
• Widening yield gap
• Applied scenarios
• Low, baseline and high

Wit Faaij, 2008
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Results - spatial production potential

• Arable land available for dedicated
• bio-energy crops divided by the
• total land

Wit Faaij, 2008
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Results - spatial cost distribution

• Production cost ( GJ-1) for
• Grassy crops

Wit Faaij, 2008
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Results cost-supply curves

• Production costs vs. supply potential
• for 2010, 2020 and 2030
• Variation areas indicated around the curves
  represent uncertainties and scenario variables.
• Only CEEC cost level increases

Wit Faaij, 2008
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Total energy potential under three different
crop schemes.
Low yielding crops all arable land available
planted with oil crops. High yielding crops
all available land planted with grass crops.
Wit Faaij, 2008
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Economic performance 2nd generation biofuels s.t.
l.t. 3 Euro/GJ feedstock
Hamelinck Faaij, 2006
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Cost reduction potential in 2nd generation
technologies.
Wit, Junginger, Faaij, et al. 2008
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Development in net feedstock use for biofuels
(REFUEL project example scenario)
www.refuel.org, 2008
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key issues (I)

• Resources need to meet criteria in broad sense.
• Resource base needs to be diversified
  (lignocellulose, cultivated, marginal degraded
  lands).
• Real market experience needs to be built in
  different settings (DCs!).
• Sustainable (international) markets and
  certification to be established.
• International collaboration and harmonization on
  criteria and standards.
• Stable and coherent policies.

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Key issues (II)

• Consider bioenergy as one option and not just
  biofuels use power and heat market as stepping
  stones for 2nd gen. biofuels.
• Use niches for biofuels (residues with add on
  hydrolysis units and co-gasification of biomass).
• Facilitate learning (conversion, supply
  infrastructure, biomass production).
• Stable and coherent policies.

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Stay with me for 3 more seconds

• Bioenergy is at the nexus of land-use (2nd
  revolution!), development (poverty!), energy
  (oil!) and climate (carbon stocks!) this is a
  unique position.
• We have the bioenergy options to achieve
  synergies (as well as the wrong ones)
• Governance is the key across policy fields
  (agriculture, energy, climate, development)
  consistent and stable.

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Thanks for your attention

• www.bioenergytrade.org

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Presenter Contact a.p.c.faaij_at_uu.nl