Title: International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change IHDP Core Scientific Project
1International Human Dimensions Programme on
Global Environmental Change (IHDP) Core
Scientific Project of Integrated Risk Governance
(CSP-IRG)
International Workshop on Global Environmental
Change and Integrated Risk Governance
- Drafting Group of CSP-IRG for IHDP
- Working Group for Risk Governance-CNC-IHDP
- Secretariat of CNC-IHDP
- June 7, 2007, Beijing China
2Proposal for Establishment of IHDPIntegrated
Risk Governance (IRG) Core Science Project
- CNC-IHDP/RG Working Group
- China National Committee(CNC)-IHDP
3- ESSP
- IHDP
- IGBP
- WCRP
- DIVERSITAS
4(No Transcript)
5- IGBP-Projects
- AIMES Analysis, Integration and Modeling of the
Earth System - GLOBEC Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics
- GLP Global Land Project
- IGAC International Global Atmospheric Chemistry
- ILEAPS Integrated Land Ecosystem-Atmosphere
Process Study - IMBER Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and
Ecosystem Research - LOICZ Land-Ocean Interaction in the Coastal Zone
- PAGES Past Global Changes
- SOLAS Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study
- Completed Projects By IGBP
- BAHC Biosphere Aspects of the Hydrological Cycle
(1991-2003) - DIS Data and Information System (1993-2001)
- GAIM Global Analysis Integration and Modeling
(1993-2004) - GCTE Global Change Terrestrial Ecosystem
(1993-2004) - JGOFS The Joint Global Ocean Flux Study
(1988-2003) - LUCC Land Use and Cover Change (1994-2005)
6- IHDP Projects
- GECHS Global Environmental Change and Human
Security - IDGEC Institutional Dimensions of Global
Environmental - Change
- IT Industrial Transformation
- LUCC Land Use and Cover Change (Co-sponsored
with IGBP) - LOICZ Land-Ocean Interaction in the Coastal Zone
- (Co-sponsored with IGBP)
- UGEC Urbanization and Global Environmental
Change - GLP Global Land Project (Co-sponsored with IGBP)
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8- IHDP Projects
- GECHS Global Environmental Change and Human
Security - IDGEC Institutional Dimensions of Global
Environmental - Change
- IT Industrial Transformation
- LUCC Land Use and Cover Change (Co-sponsored
with IGBP) - LOICZ Land-Ocean Interaction in the Coastal Zone
- (Co-sponsored with IGBP)
- UGEC Urbanization and Global Environmental
Change - GLP Global Land Project (Co-sponsored with IGBP)
9Preliminary Work 1
10Preliminary Work 2
11Drafting committee of IHDPIRG suggestion
- Scientific advisers
- Honglie Sun Academician of Chinese Academy of
Science,Chairman of CNC-IHDP advisory committee. - Dadao Lu Academician of Chinese Academy of
Science,administrative commissioner of the
CNC-IHDP - Yanhua Liu Academician of Asia-Eurpe Academy of
Science,Chairman of CNC-IHDP - Roger Kasperson Academician of America Academy of
Science,Life Professor of Clark University, USA. - Norio Okada Director of Disaster Prevention
Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan.
12CONTENTS
- 1. Scientific Target and Research Scope of IRG
- 2. Significance of IHDP-IRG Core Scientific
Project - 3. Progress and Development Trend of IRG
Research - 4. Research Scope and Key Scientific and
Technological Issues for IHDP-IRG Core
Scientific Project - 5. Implementation Measures for IRG Scientific
Project
13Tsunami Disaster Risks
Indian Ocean Tsunami on Dec. 26th, 2004
14Hurricane Disaster Risks
Hurricane Katrina on Aug. 28th, 2005 in New
Orleans of America
15Flood Disaster Risks
Flood in Yangtze River Basin of China in Summer
Autumn,1998
16Drought Disaster Risks
Severe Drought with a return period of one
hundred year in ChongQing, China, August, 2006
171. Scientific Target and Research Scope of IRG
- 1.1 Introduction
- 1.2 Overall target of IRG
- 1.3 Validation and application of IRG
achievements - 1.4 Research method for IRG
181.1 Introduction
Scientific Target and Research Scope of IRG
- Integrated Risk Governance (IRG)
- is an inter-discipline core scientific project
- aim to elevate the understanding of integrated
disaster risks and capacity for transfer of
disaster risks - The scientists of IRG Committee are striving to
- study the dynamic and non-dynamic mechanism of
formation and change of global and regional
disaster risks - provide the operational assessment tools for
formulating policies of transferring disaster
risks
19Scientific Target and Research Scope of IRG
Extensive Research Field of IRG
Core Scientific Issues of IRG
Extensive Research Subjects of IRG
201.2 Overall target of IRG
Scientific Target and Research Scope of IRG
- Overall target of IRG is to
- enhance the understanding of formation mechanism,
and risk transfer approaches of large-scale
disasters, with special emphasis on new
knowledge, new technology and new management
paradigm. - Rational of IRG is to
- move disaster risk reduction to disaster risk
transfer by integrating national sciences and
social sciences. - Short-term target of IRG is to
- develop more advanced approaches to understand
the formation mechanism of disaster risks - design the regional disaster reduction modeling
- detect the integrated disaster risks on both
global and regional scales.
211.3 Validation and application of IRG
achievements
Scientific Target and Research Scope of IRG
- Validation measures available for IRG scientific
research achievements - Establishment and application of different
scientific networks - The methodology of IRG research will be also
improved and reinforced - Research workers will assess and verify such
deliveries. - High-quality IRG research achievements could
- be transformed into a base for inventing regional
disaster risk governance technology - become a base for making a policy for regional
disaster risk governance
221.4 Research method for IRG
Scientific Target and Research Scope of IRG
- The qualitative description, statistical analysis
and system integration quantitative analysis
method normally are combined for application - The descriptive research method
- explains the evolution of regional disaster risk
- reveals the regional disaster vulnerability,
resilience and adaptation - The method based on substitute parameters
- pursue to master the role of single factor in the
regional disaster risk system - The method based on the systematic method
- stresses on the mode and strength of all factors
interaction (feedback mechanism) in the regional
disaster risk system the systems structure and
function between vulnerability, resilience and
adaptation
23Scientific Target and Research Scope of IRG
Research method of IHDP-IRG
- Synthesis of three conventional understandings
- Observation description
- Simulation
- Integration
IHDP-IRG System Synthesis and Integration Method
242. Significance of IHDPIRG Core Scientific
Project
- 2.1 Increasing Global Risks due to Global
Environmental Change - 2.2 Diffusing Risks due to Globalization
- 2.3 Development of IRG Science and Technology
for the Global Sustainable Development
252.1 Increasing Global Risks due to Global
Environmental Change
Significance of IHDPIRG Core Scientific Project
- Global warming has contributed to the increase of
disaster risks - Increases the frequency of extreme weather
events - Affects the normal operation of infrastructure
- Impacts the service capacity of the earth
ecological system - Leads to the rising of sea level
26Significance of IHDPIRG Core Scientific Project
Changes of surface temperature and the frequency
of major disasters
27Significance of IHDPIRG Core Scientific Project
Changes of snow cover and the frequency of major
disasters
28Significance of IHDPIRG Core Scientific Project
Changes of sea level and the frequency of major
disasters
29Significance of IHDPIRG Core Scientific Project
Changes of surface temperature and disaster losses
30Significance of IHDPIRG Core Scientific Project
Changes of snow cover and disaster losses
31Significance of IHDPIRG Core Scientific Project
Changes of sea level and disaster losses
322.2 Diffusing Risks due to Globalization
Significance of IHDPIRG Core Scientific Project
- Acceleration of Globalization and Regionalization
brings - Worldwide insurance and reinsurance
- Worldwide market risks
- Worldwide network risks
332.3 Development of IRG Science and Technology
for the Global Sustainable Development
Significance of IHDPIRG Core Scientific Project
- Yokohama Declaration(1994) and Hyogo
Declaration(2005) - raise the capacity of responding to different
disaster risks - The Sixth IHDP Open Science Conference (Bonn,
2005 ) and The International Disaster Reduction
Conference (Davos, 2006) - sustainable development and disaster risks
reduction - International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
(UN-ISDR) - establish the social system with coexistence of
risks
343. Progress and Development Trend of IRG Research
- 3.1 International Strategy for Disaster
Reduction and Integrated Disaster Risk
Management - 3.2 Focus of International Organizations and
Institutions on Disaster Reduction and Risk
management - 3.3 Adjustment of World Disaster Reduction
Strategy after the 2nd WCDR - 3.4 Major Progress and Development Trend of
International Disaster Reduction since 2006 Davos
International Disaster Reduction Conference - 3.5 Major issues of integrated disaster risk
management at the 6th International Integrated
Disaster Risk Forum - 3.6 IRG Studies in China
- 3.7 Development Trend
353.1 International Strategy for Disaster
Reduction and Integrated Disaster Risk
Management
Progress and Development Trend of IRG Research
- International Decade for National Disaster
Reduction (IDNDR) - Hyogo Declaration (January 17 to 22, 2005 )
- Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 Building
the Resilience of Nations and Communities to
Disaster, HFA - Congress of Member Countries of ISDR in Geneva
from June 5 to 7, 2007 Establishment Global
Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction (GP/DRR)
36Progress and Development Trend of IRG Research
3.2 Focus of International Organizations and
Institutions on Disaster Reduction and
Risk management
RMA (1914) SRA (1980) IRGC (2003)
World Bank (1993) IIASA-DPRA (2001) OECD (2006)
373.3 Adjustment of World Disaster Reduction
Strategy after the 2nd WCDR
Progress and Development Trend of IRG Research
- Summit Forum on Disaster Reduction
- Regional Forum on Disaster Reduction
- Public Forum on Disaster Reduction
- Special Forum on Disaster Reduction
383.4 Major Progress and Development Trend of
International Disaster Reduction since
2006 Davos IDRC
Progress and Development Trend of IRG Research
- A new age for risk management primary
establishment of the integrated disaster risk
science system - Improvement and rebuilding of ecological
systemthe key infrastructure required for
development in the risk society - Focus on the close correlation between global
environmental change and disaster riskimportant
reason for disaster risks to increase - Emphasis on utilization of financial and
insurance, re-insurance measures to transfer
risksopportunity and challenge for natural
disaster insurance
393.4 Major Progress and Development Trend of
International Disaster Reduction since
2006 Davos IDRC
Progress and Development Trend of IRG Research
- Concerns over the role of women in the disaster
risk management vulnerable groups of natural
disasters and importance for rural disaster
reduction - Concerns on the enhancing part of terrorism in
social riskreduce the regional conflicts and
realize the harmonious existence - Development of an information support platform
for disaster risk managementestablish the
information-sharing system for the disaster risk
management - Importance of integrated disaster reduction in
high-risk regionskey regions for integrated
disaster risk management
403.5 Major issues of integrated disaster risk
management at the 6th International
Integrated Disaster Risk Forum
Progress and Development Trend of IRG Research
- The way for business and industry to cope with
disaster risk - Integrated management of earthquake and flood
disaster risk - Cultivation of consciousness for disaster risk
education and disaster reduction - Discussion on Theory and Method of Integrated
Disaster Risk Management
413.6 IRG Studies in China
Progress and Development Trend of IRG Research
- The Chinese Government
- has attached great importance to the emergency
management of the public security with SARS
breaking out in 2003 - has integrated the prevention of different risks
and sustainable development closely in the
national 11th Five-year Plan - proclaimed the emergency program for the central
government, its departments, local governments
and large state-owned enterprises in 2005
423.6 IRG Studies in China
Progress and Development Trend of IRG Research
- NDRCC The National 11th Five-year Year
Comprehensive Disaster Reduction Planning - SCEO/SDRC The National 11th Five-year Planning
for Emergency System Construction of Public
Events - CNC-IHDP/ RG (2005)
- MOST The National 11th Five-year Science and
Technology Support ProgramIRG - CIRC China Insurance Regulatory Commission have
published China Risk Governance Report (2006)
433.7 Development Trend
Progress and Development Trend of IRG Research
- Establish the system and mechanism for global and
regional harmonious development and integrated
disaster risk management - Establish the integrated disaster risk science
and technology supporting system - Establish the regional integrated disaster risk
governance system (mode)
444. Research Scope and Key Scientific and
Technological Issues for IHDP-IRG Core
Scientific Project
- 4.1 Introduction of IRG
- 4.2 Focuses of IRG
- 4.3 Key Scientific, Technical and Managerial
Issues for IRG Core Scientific Project
45Research Scope and Key Scientific and
Technological Issues for IHDP-IRG Core
Scientific Project
4.1 Major Targets of Core Scientific Project
- Integrated Risk Governance ( IRG )
- is an inter-discipline project with the aim to
deepen the understanding of risk formation
mechanism and diffusion behavior - develop some global and regional integrated
disaster risk model - deepen the understanding of the dynamic and
non-dynamic mechanism for formation and change of
global and regional disaster risks under the
motivation of global environmental change and
globalization - provide operational assessment tools
46Research Scope and Key Scientific and
Technological Issues for IHDP-IRG Core
Scientific Project
4.1 Major Targets of Core Scientific Project
Major Targets for IRG Core Scientific Plan
47Change of Disaster Risk System
Research Scope and Key Scientific and
Technological Issues for IHDP-IRG Core
Scientific Project
4.2 Focuses of IRG
In view of the multi-discipline integration
analysis, deepen the understanding of risk
formation and change of disaster risk under the
background of global environmental change.
- To take the multi-discipline integration analysis
- To deepen the understanding of risk formation
mechanism under the background of global
environmental change - To deepen the understanding diffusion behavior in
the globalization system
484.2 Focuses of IRG
Research Scope and Key Scientific and
Technological Issues for IHDP-IRG Core
Scientific Project
Focus I
- It is planned to undertake studies in the
following six aspects - Interaction of mankind and nature and formation
mechanism of disaster risks under the global
opening system - Development trend of the worlds disaster risks
and the changing trend of its tempo-spatial
pattern under the background of global warming - Predictability of global environmental change and
tempo-spatial change of natural disaster risks - Predictability of global environmental change and
tempo-spatial change of ecological disaster risks
- Globalization and global diffusion and diffusion
mechanism of disaster risks - Feedback mechanism for impacts of catastrophes on
the regional and even global environment
49Modeling and Simulation of Disaster Risk
Research Scope and Key Scientific and
Technological Issues for IHDP-IRG Core
Scientific Project
4.2 Focuses of IRG
According to the completeness of samples ( large
samples, small samples and incomplete samples ),
select and develop a new generation assessment
model for integrated disaster risk and establish
the regional and global disaster risk simulation
system under the different environmental changes.
504.2 Focuses of IRG
Research Scope and Key Scientific and
Technological Issues for IHDP-IRG Core
Scientific Project
Focus II
- It is planned to undertake studies in the
following six aspects - Disaster risk assessment modelling system (
different tempo-spatial scales and different
conditions of originating mechanism ) - The downscaling and up-scaling of disaster risk
modelling in different conditions of causing
mechanism - Disaster risk vulnerability, resilience
assessment modelling with small samples and
incomplete samples and improvement of the
regional and global integrated disaster risk
model - Development of social vulnerability assessment
model for regional and global integrated disaster
risk - Development of integrated risk simulation and
modelling tools under different situations and
conditions - Global and regional disaster risk modeling and
simulation and division of high-risk zones
51Regional Integrated Disaster Risk Governance Mode
Research Scope and Key Scientific and
Technological Issues for IHDP-IRG Core
Scientific Project
4.2 Focuses of IRG
In view of research to practice, improve as a
whole the regional integrated disaster risk
governance mode for alleviating the risk
influence and promoting the worlds sustainable
development.
524.2 Focuses of IRG
Research Scope and Key Scientific and
Technological Issues for IHDP-IRG Core
Scientific Project
Focus III
- It is planned to undertake studies in the
following six aspects - Construction of information service platform for
preventing the risks due to the global
environmental change - Standard system suitable for different countries
and regions to prevent different risks - Global-scale mode for sustainable development and
IRG of regions with high disaster risks - Regional and global large-scale disaster risk
governance mode - Collection, promotion and application of local
experiences in traditional governance of disaster
risk - Aid mode for small island countries and other
weak regions under global environmental change to
govern the disaster risks
53Approach for Disaster Risk Transfer
Research Scope and Key Scientific and
Technological Issues for IHDP-IRG Core
Scientific Project
4.2 Focuses of IRG
In view of the inter-discipline (natural
sciences, social sciences and human sciences and
technology), go deep in exploring approaches for
transfer of catastrophe risks.
544.2 Focuses of IRG
Research Scope and Key Scientific and
Technological Issues for IHDP-IRG Core
Scientific Project
Focus IV
- It is planned to undertake studies in the
following eight aspects - Institutional design with risk adaptation under
the global environmental change - Technology of reducing risks with different
tempo-spatial dimensions and different reasons
for formation - Safety building of enterprises and communities
and integrated risk management system - Mechanism and system for promoting the insurance
and re-insurance against catastrophe risks - Trans-national system design and technology
development for improving the global-dimension
catastrophe emergency and aid system. - Financial aid mechanism for improving the
construction of IRG infrastructures for high-risk
regions - Organization mechanism for promoting and
improving the volunteer system for catastrophe
emergency response - Mechanism for promoting and improving the public
financial support system of risk education
554.3 Key Scientific, Technical and Managerial
Issues for IRG Core Scientific Project
Research Scope and Key Scientific and
Technological Issues for IHDP-IRG Core
Scientific Project
Framework of Core Science Plan for IHDP-IRG
564.3 Key Scientific, Technical and Managerial
Issues for IRG Core Scientific Project
Research Scope and Key Scientific and
Technological Issues for IHDP-IRG Core
Scientific Project
Core Research Issues of IHDP-IRG ( STMP Model )
574.3 Key Scientific, Technical and Managerial
Issues for IRG Core Scientific Project
Research Scope and Key Scientific and
Technological Issues for IHDP-IRG Core
Scientific Project
Technical Issues of IRG
Scientific Issues of IRG
584.3 Key Scientific, Technical and Managerial
Issues for IRG Core Scientific Project
Research Scope and Key Scientific and
Technological Issues for IHDP-IRG Core
Scientific Project
Managerial Issues of IRG
59Research Scope and Key Scientific and
Technological Issues for IHDP-IRG Core
Scientific Project
Integrated Disaster Risk Governance System (Form)
604.3 Key Scientific, Technical and Managerial
Issues for IRG Core Scientific Project
Research Scope and Key Scientific and
Technological Issues for IHDP-IRG Core
Scientific Project
- It is intended to carry out in-depth studies in
the following aspects - Improve the theory and methodology for measuring
integrated disaster risk - Build up the system, mechanism and legal system
of integrated disaster risk governance - Reveal the formation mechanism (dynamics) of
integrated disaster risks and resolve the
scientific and technological problems for their
modelling and simulation, namely, set up the
dynamic modeling of disaster risks and develop
simulation tools - Develop, promote and apply IRG modes for the
high-risk regions , namely, select, promote and
apply the typical successful cases of IRG - Construct an integrated risk information-sharing
platform on global, regional, national and local
scales and build an effective information and
technical system for integrated risks, namely,
integrate risk information and build the capacity
for public and commercialized services under the
multi-lingual and cultural environment - Promote and build a mode for sustainable
development and integrated risk governance on a
global scale, namely, build integrated
demonstration regions for sustainable development
and IRG in compliance with the global
environmental change
615. Implementation Measures for IRG Scientific
Project
- 5.1 Develop and Integrate the Scientific
network - 5.2 Establish an Information-sharing Platform
- 5.3 Expand Actions
- 5.4 Develop regional and global network
625.1 Develop and Integrate the Scientific network
Implementation Measures for IRG Scientific Project
- Enhance the cooperation with the international
and regional governmental organizations in
disaster reduction - Enhance the cooperation with IRG-related
non-governmental organizations - Give a full play to the function of the disaster
risk science network, Integrated Disaster Risk
Management Forum jointly sponsored by DPRI-IIASA
- Speed up the close contacts with World Bank and
OECD - Enhance the cooperation with insurance and
re-insurance institutions and insurance-related
agencies in different countries all over the
world - Cooperate closely with the science networks
formed under other science research programs of
IHDP
63Implementation Measures for IRG Scientific Project
5.2 Establish an Information-sharing Platform
- To exert the function of ISDRs global disaster
information platform and DRH system and try to
form as soon as possible the shared information
platform in compliance with the requirement of
IRG scientific network. - To strengthen the disaster risk classification
and formulation of data standards for different
language environments, especially the measurement
of economic data for losses due to disasters. - The available national disasters database should
be deployed so that the regional division of
global disaster risks becomes possible. - To further regulate the regional disasters data
recorded in different modes, especially those
major or catastrophe cases with obvious
influences so as to lay a foundation for
establishing different disaster risk assessment
systems.
64Implementation Measures for IRG Scientific Project
5.2 Establish an Information-sharing Platform
- The disaster database available with foreign or
transnational re-insurance companies should be
utilized to improve the global, regional and
national disasters data report so that the
disaster data can be more smooth and convenient
for the information exchange of IRG science
network. - A disaster risk information network sharing
platform should be developed similar to Google
Earth to provide the global data sharing network
service system for the implementation of IRG
scientific project.
65Implementation Measures for IRG Scientific Project
5.3 Expand Actions
- Gradually expand the Science Steering Committee.
- To absorb extensively the most influential
scientists in different countries all over the
world - To fully reflect the regional and global
diversity in the IRG research agenda - Develop IRG Summit Forum and expand the influence
of DPRI-IIASA Integrated Disaster Risk Management
Forum so that it will become a global IRG
science. Give a full play to the leading role of
the forum in IRG development. - To strengthen the extensive academic exchange of
IRG at the regional level in the world - To add the academic exchange contents of IRG at
the currently undertaken international disaster
reduction conferences, SRA World Conferences and
other international academic exchanges
66Implementation Measures for IRG Scientific Project
5.3 Expand Actions
- Expand the function of DRH for a worldwide
academic exchange and further improve DRH online
forum system - To further strengthen online disaster risk
reduction forum - To provide a fine environment for the IRG free
academic exchange without tempo-spatial
difference, especially the information exchange
system - To establish the online IRG journals and promote
the technological innovation of IRG. - To establish the international science journal of
IRG to form a symbolic IRG academic garden. - To establish IRG bulletin and network propaganda
system to propagate IRG research achievement,
exchange views, promote new concepts and absorb
research fellows to undertake IRG action.
67Implementation Measures for IRG Scientific Project
5.3 Expand Actions
- Consolidate the comparison case studies
- The Scientific Project of Case Station and Field
Campus initiated by Professor Norio Okada from
Japanese Kyoto University has been in operation
for almost three years and has made outstanding
achievements. - It is to further expand the implementation of
this research program in different regions and
high-risk zones in the world. - To promote the extensive exchange of the disaster
reduction and disaster risk management projects
being undertaken in different countries and
region all over the world so as to strengthen the
regional comparison research capacity of disaster
risks - To gradually form the global science network of
regional disaster risk case studies.
685.4 Develop regional and global network
Implementation Measures for IRG Scientific Project
- Establish State IHDP National Committee IRG
working group - Certain IRG activities of different extent have
been included in the work agenda in some IHDP
national committees - CNC-IHDP/IRG working group has been established
in China - Further promote the social groups with national
standard disaster reduction and risk research to
strengthen IRG work and urge CNC-IHDP to set up
IRG
695.4 Develop regional and global network
Implementation Measures for IRG Scientific Project
- Mobilize the current national or global relevant
societies or associations, increase the
opportunities for IRG research and academic
exchange and form the IRG global and regional
network - A special R D group was set up relating to
disaster reduction and risk to promote IRG in IGU
- Such international organizations as IGBP, WCRP,
DIVERSITAS have also implemented such scientific
projects relating to IRG - To enhance the contact with these international
organizations and expand the regional and global
network of the IRG research - Accelerate the establishment of contacts with
IRGC, RMA, SRA and WB and OECD - To expand the regional and international network
of IRG research
70Thank you for your attention!