Title: Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change The Water Resource Sector
1Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and
Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change The
Water Resource Sector
2Outline
- Vulnerability and adaptation with respect to
water resources - Viewing water resources from a services
perspective - Hydrologic implications of climate change for
water resources - Tools/models
- WEAP model presentation
- Role for Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)
3Effective VA Assessments
- Defining VA assessment
- Often VA focuses on analysis over assessment
- Why? Because the focus is on biophysical impacts,
e.g., hydrologic response, crop yields, forests,
etc. - Assessment is an integrating process requiring
the interface of physical and social science and
public policy
4Effective VA Assessments (continued)
- General questions
- What is the assessment trying to influence?
- How can the science/policy interface be most
effective? - How can the participants be most effective in the
process? - General problems
- Participants bring differing objectives/
expertise - These differences often lead to dissention/
differing opinions this is where MCA can help
in prioritization
5Effective VA Assessments (continued)
- To be valuable, the assessment process requires
- Relevancy
- Credibility
- Legitimacy
- Consistent participation
- An interdisciplinary process
- The assessment process often requires a tool
- The tool is usually a model or suite of models
- These models serve as the interface
- This interface is a bridge for dialogue between
scientists and policy makers
6The Water Resource SectorWaters Trade-Off
Landscape
7Water Resources from a Services Perspective
- Not just an evaluation of rainfall-runoff or
streamflow - But an evaluation of the potential impacts of
global warming on the goods and services provided
by freshwater systems
8Freshwater Ecosystem Services
Extractable Direct Use Indirect Use
9Water Resources A Critical VA Sector
- Critical to both managed and natural systems
- Human activity influences both systems
Managed Systems
External Pressure
Product, good or service Process Control
services
Example Agriculture
Example Wetlands
10Hydrologic External Pressures related to
Climate Change
- Precipitation amount
- Global average increase
- Marked regional differences
- Precipitation frequency and intensity
- Less frequent, more intense (Trenberth et al.,
2003) - Evaporation and transpiration
- Increase total evaporation
- Regional complexities due to plant/atmosphere
interactions
11Specific Pressures Retreating Himalayan glaciers
- Forecasts of 25 losses globally by 2050 50 by
2100
12Specific Pressures Retreating Himalayan glaciers
- Meltwaters are depended upon during dry season to
sustain low flow periods - Probable diminished volume and earlier timing of
flows - Has implications for hydropower production,
agricultural demands, and river and riparian
quality and ecosystem needs
13Specific Pressures Sea level rise
- Sea level could rise by as much as 50 cm by 2100
(IPCC, 2001) - For islands, coasts
- sea level rise, inundation of coast lines, and
decreasing infiltration of precipitation will
lead to shrinking groundwater lenses - Displacement of people will cause new localized
stresses on water resource allocation - water tables may rise to land surface, causing
full evapotranspiration and diminished water
quality (Burns 2000)
14Specific Pressures Extreme weather
- Typhoons and cyclones could increase by 50-60
(NASA, 2001), with intensities increasing by
10-20 (IPCC 2001). - Possible doubling of frequency of 100 mm/day
rainfall events and 15-18 increase in rainfall
intensity over large areas of the Pacific (IPCC
2001). - This may lead to greater soil erosion and runoff,
and less water available for infiltration and
evapotranspiration
15Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources
- Construction/modification of physical
infrastructure - Canal linings
- Closed conduits instead of open channels
- Integrating separate reservoirs into a single
system - Reservoirs/hydro-plants/delivery systems
- Raising dam wall height
- Increasing canal size
- Removing sediment from reservoirs for more
storage - Inter-basin water transfers
16Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources
(continued)
- Adaptive management of existing water supply
systems - Change operating rules
- Use conjunctive surface/groundwater supply
- Physically integrate reservoir operation system
- Coordinate supply/demand
- Indigenous options
17Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources
(continued)
- Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology
- Domestic
- Municipal and in-home re-use of water
- Leak repair
- Rainwater collection for non-potable uses
- Low-flow appliances
- Dual-supply systems (potable and nonpotable)
- Agriculture
- Irrigation timing and efficiency
- Drainage re-use, use of wastewater effluent
- High value/low water use crops
- Drip, micro-spray, low-energy, precision
application irrigation systems - Salt-tolerant crops that can use drain water
18Examples of Adaptation Water Supply (continued)
- Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology
(continued) - Industry
- Water re-use and recycling
- Closed cycle and/or air cooling
- More efficient hydropower turbines
- Cooling ponds, wet towers and dry towers
- Energy (hydropower)
- Reservoir re-operation
- Cogeneration (beneficial use of waste heat)
- Additional reservoirs and hydropower stations
- Low head run of the river hydropower
- Market/price-driven transfers to other activities
- Using water price to shift water use between
sectors
19Tools in Water Resource VA Studies
- What tools are available to understand both water
resource vulnerabilities and evaluate adaptation
strategies? - How can stakeholders be engaged in these
processes?
20Types of Water Resources Models
- Hydraulic biophysical process models describing
streamflow, flooding - Hydrology rainfall/runoff processes
- Planning water resource systems models
- Which model?...
- What questions are you trying to answer?
21Hydraulic Model
- Critical questions
- How fast, deep is river flowing
- How do changes to flow and channel morphology
impact sediment transport and services provided
(fish habitats, recreation, etc).
22Hydrology Model
- Critical questions
- How does rainfall on a catchment translate into
flow in a river? - What pathways does water follow as it moves
through a catchment? - How does movement along these pathways impact the
magnitude, timing, duration, and frequency of
river flows, as well as water quality?
23Planning Model
- Critical questions
- How should water be allocated to various uses in
time of shortage? - How can these operations be constrained to
protect the services provided by the river? - How should infrastructure in the system (e.g.,
dams, diversion works) be operated to achieve
maximum benefit (economic, social, ecological)? - How will allocation, operations, and operating
constraints change if new management strategies
are introduced into the system?
24Tools to Use for the Assessment Referenced Water
Models
- Operational and hydraulic
- HEC
- HEC-HMS event-based rainfall-runoff (provides
input to HEC-RAS for doing 1-d flood inundation
mapping) - HEC-RAS one-dimensional steady and unsteady
flow - HEC-ResSim reservoir operation modeling
- WaterWare
- RiverWare
- MIKE11
- Delft3d
25Hydraulic Water Management Model
- HEC-HMS watershed scale, event based hydrologic
simulation, of rainfall-runoff processes - Sub-daily rainfall-runoff processes of small
catchments - Free, download from web
26Tools to Use for the Assessment Referenced Water
Models (continued)
- Planning/ hydrology
- WEAP21
- Aquarius
- SWAT
- IRAS (Interactive River and Aquifer Simulation)
- RIBASIM
- MIKE 21 and BASIN
27Current Focus Planning and Hydrologic
Implications of Climate Change
- Selected planning/hydrology models can be
deployed on PC, extensive documentation, ease of
use, free (or free to developing nations) - Aquarius
- SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool)
- WEAP21 (Water Evaluation and Planning)
28Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models
- AQUARIS advantage Has economic efficiency
criterion requiring the reallocation of stream
flows until the net marginal return in all water
uses is equal - Cannot be climatically driven flows prescribed
by user - Economic focus
29Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models
(continued)
- SWAT advantage
- Can predict effect of management decisions on
water, sediment, nutrient and pesticide yields on
ungauged river basins. Considers complex water
quality constituents. - Rainfall-runoff, river routing on a daily
timestep - Focuses on supply side of water balance
30Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models
(continued)
- WEAP21 advantage Seamlessly integrates watershed
hydrologic processes with water resources
management - Can be climatically driven
- Based on holistic approach of integrated water
resources management (IWRM) supply and demand
31IWRM Principles
- Freshwater is finite and has economic and social
value in its competing uses - Water is essential to sustain life and safe water
should be accessible to all - Water development and management should be
participatory, involving users, planners, policy
makers at all levels and recognize that women in
particular play a central role in water provision
for their families.
1992 International Conference on Water and
Environment, Dublin, Ireland
32IWRM Principles
- Promotes the coordinated development and
management of land, water and related resources
to maximize social and economic welfare in
equitable way without comprising sustainability - Cross-sectoral integration in water policy
development
Global Water Partnership
33IWRM Resources
Global Water Partnership at www.gwp.forum.org
34Overview WEAP21
- Hydrology and planning
- Planning (water distribution) examples and
exercises - Adding hydrology to the model
- User interface
- Scale
- Data requirements and resources
- Calibration and validation
- Results
- Scenarios
- Licensing and registration
35A Simple System with WEAP21
36An Infrastructure Constraint
37A Regulatory Constraint
38Different Priorities
- For example, the demands of large farmers (70
units) might be Priority 1 in one scenario
whereas the demands of smallholders (40 units)
may be Priority 1 in another
39Different Preferences
30
10
- For example, a center pivot operator may prefer
to take water from a tributary because of lower
pumping costs
0
90
40WEAP and Planning
- Provides a common framework for transparently
organizing water resource data at any scale
desired local watershed, regional or
transboundary river basin - Scenarios can be easily developed to explore
possible water futures - Implications of various policies can be evaluated
41WEAP Capabilities
- Can do
- High level planning at local and regional scales
- Demand management
- Water allocation
- Infrastructure evaluation
- Cannot do
- Sub-daily operations
- Optimization of supply and demand (e.g. cost
minimizations or social welfare maximization)
42Uses of WEAP
- Policy Research
- Alternative Allocations
- Climate Change
- Land Use Change
- Infrastructure Planning
- Capacity Building
- Negotiation
- Stakeholder Engagement
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44WEAP is Scenario-driven
- The scenario editor readily accommodates analysis
of - Climate change scenarios and assumptions
- Future demand assumptions
- Future watershed development assumptions
45Futures and Scenarios Why?
- Scenarios a systematic way of thinking about the
future - To gain a better understanding of the possible
implications of decisions (or non-decisions
across scales and time - To support decision-making
46Driving Forces
- Technological
- Computer and information technology
- Biotechnology
- Miniaturization
- Environmental/Climatic
- Increasing global stress
- Local degradation
- Some remediation in richer countries
- Governance
- Global institutions
- Democratic government
- Role for civil society in decision-making
- Demographic
- More people
- Urbanization
- Older
- Economic
- Growing integration of global economy
- Social
- Increasing inequality
- Persistent poverty
- Cultural
- Spread of values of consumerism and individualism
- Nationalist and religious reaction
47Who are the Actors?
- Government
- Private sector
- Civil society
- Public
- Rich farmers
- Poor farmers
- Urban users
- Environmentalists
- Or?
48Consider Sources of Uncertainty
Ignorance
Understanding is limited
Surprise
The unexpected and the novel can alter directions
Volition
Human choice matters
49Forecast and Backcast
Where do we want to go? How do we get there?
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51WEAP21 Program Structure
52The WEAP21 Graphical User Interface
Languages Interface Only English French Chinese S
panish
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54Data Requirements
- WEAP allows the user to determine the level of
complexity desired - according to the questions that need to be
addressed - the availability of data
55From the simple
56To the complex.
57Data Requirements Supply
- User-prescribed supply (riverflow given as fixed
time series) - Time series data of riverflows (headflows) cfs
- River network (connectivity)
- Alternative supply via physical hydrology (let
the watershed generate riverflow) - Watershed attributes
- Area, land cover . . .
- Climate
- Precipitation, temperature, windspeed, and
relative humidity
58Letting Climate Drive Hydrology
59The WEAP 2-Bucket Hydrology Module
Surface Runoff f(Pe,z1,1/LAI)
Sw
Dw
60One 2-Bucket Model per Land Class
61Integrated Hydrology/Water Management Analytical
Framework in WEAP21
62Data Requirements Demand
- Water demand data multi-sectoral
- Municipal and industrial demand
- Aggregated by sector (manufacturing, tourism,
etc.) - Disaggregated by population (e.g., use/capita,
use/socioeconomic group) - Agricultural demands
- Aggregated by area ( hectares, annual
water-use/hectare) - Disaggregated by crop water requirements
- Ecosystem demands (in-stream flow requirements)
63Data Requirements (continued)
SECTOR
SUBSECTOR
END-USE
DEVICE
Furrow Sprinkler Drip Standard Efficient ... K
itchen Bathing Washer Toilet ...
Agriculture Industry Municipal
Irrigation ... Cooling Processing Others Sing
le Family Multi-family ...
Cotton Rice Wheat ... Electric
Power Petroleum Paper ... South City West
City ...
64Example Data Resources
- Indigenous knowledge!
- Climate
- www.apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu
- (Asia Pacific Data Research Center)
- Hydrology
- www.grdc.bafg.de
- (Global Runoff Data Center)
- GIS
- www.asian.gu.edu/au
- (Asian Spatial Information and Analysis
Network) - General Resources
- www.weap21.org
65Calibration and Validation
- Model evaluation criteria
- Flows along mainstem and tributaries
- Reservoir storage and release
- Water diversions from other basins
- Agricultural water demand and delivery
- Municipal and industrial water demands and
deliveries - Groundwater storage trends and levels
66Modeling Streamflow
67Looking at Results
68What next?
- How can output from WEAP, or any water resource
model for that matter, be organized and analyzed
to select adaptation strategies?... -
- Stakeholder-driven multi-criteria analysis can
help
69Multi-criteria Analysis (MCA)
- Any structured approach used to determine overall
preferences among alternative options, where the
alternatives can accomplish several objectives - Is particularly useful to situations where a
single criterion would fall short, and allows
decision-makers to address a range of relevant
factors
70MCA Scope
- All sectors, regions, livelihoods, ecosystems,
etc. - Has been used extensively in water resources
planning, coastal zone management, agricultural
development, and stakeholder processes
71MCA Key Outputs
- A single preferred option, or
- A short list of preferred options, or
- A characterization of acceptable and unacceptable
possiblities
72MCA Key Inputs
- Evaluation criteria
- Relevant metrics for those criteria
73MCAWEAP Motivation
- Develop an interactive computer tool to
facilitate multi-criteria assessment for water
resource options in a stakeholder context - Designed specifically to be used in conjunction
with outputs from the WEAP model and stakeholder
processes to develop, weight and apply evaluation
criteria to adaptation options
74MCAWEAP History
- MCA-WEAP is a new Excel macros-based model, built
off of NAPAssess, a tool developed by SEI for use
by Sudan and Yemen in their NAPA processes - Now reshaped to focus exclusively on adaptation
options around water used so far in Netherlands
Climate Assistance Program (NCAP) studies - ensure adequate stakeholder representation
- Identify CC adaptation strategies
- establish country-driven criteria to evaluate and
prioritize - Make concensus-based recommendations for
adaptation initiatives - Open source, and still a BETA version!
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76MCAWEAP Capabilities
- Streamlines the multi-criteria analysis process
by - Housing all relevant project information on a
single platform - Supporting a transparent, user-friendly process
for developing, weighting, and applying
evaluation criteria - Producing a ranked set of alternatives
77MCAWEAP Steps
- Assess vulnerability priorities
- Identify key stakeholders
- Identify potential adaptation strategies
- Develop stakeholder-driven evaluation criteria to
determine trade-offs - Assign weights to criteria
- Prioritize adaptation options for best meeting
the needs of those most vulnerable
78Licensing WEAP
- Go to www.weap21.org and register for a new
license (free for government, university, and
non-profit organizations in developing countries) - Register WEAP under Help menu and select
Register WEAP