WCRP Conference 1997 Research priorities for the next decade

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WOCE, the Oceans, and the WCRP Peter
Lemke Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven Chair
JSC/WCRP
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WCRP Overview

• Origin
• Stockholm Study Conference (1974)
• First World Climate Conference (1979)
• Sponsors
• World Meteorological Organisation (WMO,1980)
• International Council of Scientific Unions
  (ICSU,1980)
• Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
  (IOC/UNESCO,1992)
• Objectives
• To determine the predictability of climate
• To determine the effect of human activities on
  climate

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WCRP scientific strategy

• to provide a
• framework for the international planning and
  coordination of observational and modelling
  efforts as useful and appropriate for the
  effective pursuit of the programmes objectives,
  with emphasis on the global atmospheric,
  oceanographic, cryospheric, hydrological and land
  surface components of the physical climate
  system.

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Priorities for the next decade (agreed at
WCRP-Conference, Geneva, 1997)

• Assessing the nature and predictability of
  seasonal to interdecadal climate variations at
  global and regional scales
• Providing the scientific basis for operational
  predictions
• Detecting climate change and attributing causes
• Projecting the magnitude and rate of
  human-induced change (as input for IPCC, UNFCCC,
  ...)

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WGNE WGCM
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WCRP Domains
SPARC
GEWEX
TOGA
ACSYS
WOCE
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WCRP Domains
SPARC
GEWEX
CLIVAR
ACSYS
WOCE
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WCRP Domains
GEWEX CliC CLIVAR
SPARC
SPARC
GEWEX
CLIVAR
CliC
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Achievements

• El Niño, seasonal prediction TOGA
• climate change assessment projections
• WGCM ? IPCC
• assessment of trends of temperature and
• ozone in the stratosphere SPARC
• observations and global data sets
• all projects

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WOCE - Achievements

• By far biggest and most successful ocean
  programme

• Umbrella for most of physical oceanography
• (not all activities related to climate)

• Unprecedented data set for ocean interior

• Revolutionised our ability to
• measure, model and understand the ocean

• Satellites, in situ obs. (floats), models

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A12 WWGS 1992
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Argo Implementation status
Schematic of operation
Expected coverage by 2004/5 (Needs 750 per year
to maintain)
October 2002
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High Resolution Model of the North Atlantic
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snapshot
variability
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Beyond WOCE (1)

• CLIVAR successor of TOGA and WOCE
• Role of ocean in climate, long-term variability
• CLIVAR
• requirements for long-term ocean observations
• WOCE data archival
• CLIVAR/GOOS
• WOCE data management,
• technology development GOOS/GCOS

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Beyond WOCE (2)

• Ocean processes (mixing, convection, etc.)
• climate process teams WGOMD
• WOCE bibliography, publishing (atlasses, etc)
• CLIVAR-IPO
• ocean physics (other than climate related)
• SCOR/IOC/IAPSO

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WCRP Outstanding Future Questions (1)

• hydrological cycle (acceleration under warming?)
• modelling clouds, radiation, precipitation

• sea level rise due to glacier/ice sheet melt?
• abrupt climate change due to regime change in
  cryosphere?

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WCRP Outstanding Future Questions (2)

• mechanisms of natural climate variations
• predictions models observations present/past

• effects of atmosph. composition on climate
• anthropogenic impacts

• inclusion of biosphere in climate models
• effect of bio-geo-chemical cycles on climate

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Prerequisites

• earth system models (physics, bio-geo-chemistry)
  

• improved modelling infrastructure

• operational climate prediction centers

• operational climate observing systems

• integrated assessment for management,
• policy and development

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What is the WCRPs long-range vision?
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http//www.ess-p.org
Collaboration between Projects GEWEX/BAHC
CLIVAR/PAGES CLIVAR/SOLAS SPARC/IGAC
WOCE/JGOFS WGCM/GAIM
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W O C E
GLOBAL SYNTHESIS HEAT TRANSPORT
CARBON STORAGE FLOATS BOUNDARY
CURRENTS SATELLITES
HYDROGRAPHIC TRACERS CLIMATE DYNAMICS
OCEAN MIXING WATER MASS FORMATION
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Thank You!
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