Buffelgrass in the Sonoran Desert: History

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Buffelgrass in the Sonoran Desert History
Science Needs
Photo by Warren Beck, Univ. of Arizona
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I. Statement of the problem

• Buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare), a fire-prone
  African bunchgrass, is spreading rapidly across
  the increasingly urbanized, desert landscapes of
  southern and central Arizona. Ongoing are
• escalating fire risks in what was long
  considered a fireproof (and maintenance-free)
  desert landscape
• imminent decay of the ecological backdrop for a
  lucrative tourist and housing industry
• mounting threats to several prominent national
  parks and conservation initiatives
• ultimately the unhinging of a unique American
  ecosystem
• Despite the advanced stage of spread, the
  economic impacts of buffelgrass invasion still
  greatly exceed the costs of control

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1880s Unsuccessfully introduced in Mississipi
1907-1922 unsuccessfully introduced in
Texas 1940s SCS reintroduces T-4464 from
Kenyas Turkana Desert into South Texas, where it
becomes wonder grass 1940s SCS plants it at
Plant Materials Center in Tucson 1958 USDA UAz
range scientists convince Mexican govt to
convert millions of acres in Sonora to zacate
bufel 1970s discovery of sexual clone
jumpstarts aggressive breeding by USDA-ARS
Texas Ag. Res. Station at Texas AM
1973-1974 Planted at Caterpillar Companys
Proving Grounds 1979 Planted at Tucson Plant
Materials Center 1982-1986 Planted at Santa Rita
Exp. Range 1985-1995 USDA-ARS uses it reclaim
abandoned farmland in S. AZ 2002-2005 USDA-ARS
Crop Germplasm Unit/Texas AM develop release
Frio, now planted in Cananea, Sonora
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Hermosillo
Carrying Capacity
Saturation Phase
Tucson
Effective Control Unlikely without Massive
resource Inputs
Quarantine Priority Stage
Eradication Priority Stage
Control Priority Stage
Eradication costs
Invader abundance
Phoenix
Expansion Phase
Fire
Colonization Phase
1960-1980
1980-1990
1990-2005
Time
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Buffelgrass Invasion at Desert Laboratory on
Tumamoc Hill 1968-2006
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Worst Natural Area Infestations

• Tucson Mtns
• Robles Pass
• Bushmaster Pk
• Panther Pk
• Urban
• Santa Cruz River
• Sentinel Peak
• Tumamoc Hill

• Catalina Mtns
• Sabino Canyon
• Soldier Canyon
• Snyder Hill
• Rincon Mtns
• Javelina Drainage
• Box Canyon
• Hope Camp Trail Area

• Ironwood Forest NM
• Silverbell Mtns
• Samaneigo Hills
• Pan Quemado
• Organ Pipe NM
• W of Quitobaquito
• Dos Lomitas
• Pozo Nuevo Hills

• Central AZ
• New River Mtns
• McDowell Mtns
• Eagletail Mtns
• Phoenix Parks
• Shaw Butte
• Papago Park
• Piestewa Peak

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Buffelgrass paddocks
View along Mt Lemmon Highway
Desert fuels for forest fires
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Invasive species are connecting high ignition
sources in desert cities with woody fuels along
mountain fronts
Desertscrub
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Roadside Distribution of Buffelgrass in Southern
Arizona Northern Sonora, Mexico (Courtesy of
ASDM)
Gap in Phoenix due to lack of mapping
Tucson
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Flammable stands of buffelgrass on Pima Co.
roadsides
AZ-Sonora Desert Museum
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City of Tucson Gov City of Phoenix Gov Town of
Marana Gov Town of Oro Valley Gov Pima County
Gov Arizona Legislature Arizona Dept. of
Agriculture Arizona DOT Arizona State
Parks Arizona Game Fish Arizona State Land
Dept. U.S. Geological Survey National Park
Service Bureau of Land Management U.S. Fish
Wildlife Service U.S Forest Service USDA Natl.
Res. Cons. Service U.S. Dept. of Defense AZ
Sonora Desert Museum Sonoran Desert
Weedwackers Phoenix Weedwackers Audubon
Society Sonoran Institute University of Arizona
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BUFFELGRASS SUMMIT, FEB. 9, 2007 STARR PASS
MARRIOTT, TUCSON

• Public Sector Coordination
• Private Sector Coordination
• Community Coordination
• Communication
• Record, Map and Monitor
• Response Mobilization

Ordinance
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Research Needs

• Effects Effectiveness of Control
• Effects Effectiveness of Restoration
• Mapping/Remote Sensing
• Spread Models
• Phenological Models

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Hussey, M.A., Burson, B.L. 2005. Registration of
'Frio' buffelgrass. Crop Science. 45411-412.
Vernon, TX Tmin -26F
Frio
Cananea, Sonora
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Effects Effectiveness of Control Restoration
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Cost data from SNP

• Cost (per acre) includes labor (15/hr) and
  herbicide (Roundup Pro- 48/gal)
• Pulling
• 1st Round 454 person-hours, 6802
• 2nd Round 243 person-hours, 3644
• Spraying
• 1st Round 10 person hrs, 2.1 gallons, 270
• 2nd Round 8 hrs, 0.8 gallons, 163

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Buffelgrass Spread Estimated First Treatment
Costs at Saguaro Natl. Monument The Tradeoffs
of Waiting
3000
20.4m
6.8m
2.2m
0.9m
Manual
0.3m
0.12m
Chemical
Acres infested
Treatment Cost
1000
Acreage
400
Data from Danielle Foster, NPS Todd Esque, USGS
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Starr Pass
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10 acres, 3000
20 acres 6000
Year 1
Year 2
40 acres 12000
80 acres 24000
Year 3
Year 4
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Mapping Monitoring, Remote Sensing
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University of Arizona Collaborative Project G.
Frisvold, B. Orr, S. Marsh, A. Olsson, J.
Betancourt, T. Bean
Pay-as-you-play, web-based decision model for
controlling buffelgrass invasion combines dynamic
programming w/ analytical hierarchy process (AHP)
to simulate

• cost-effectiveness of different methods to
  achieve certain objectives (e.g. protection of
  residential property, protection of habitat,
  reduction in road maintenance costs)
• tradeoffs between achieving different objectives
• effects of changes in budgets or resources for
  buffelgrass control
• gains to individual entities from coordinating
  efforts with other agencies

Funded by Pima County and USDA-Economic Research
Service- Program on Research on the Economics of
Invasive Species Management (PREISM)
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Remote Sensing
Franklin, KA, K Lyons, PG Nagler, D Lampkin, EP
Glenn, F Molina-Freanar, T Markow, AR Huete.
2006. Buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare) land
conversion and productivity in the Plains of
Sonora, Mexico. Biological Conservation 127
62-71.
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Remote Sensing
Franklin, KA, K Lyons, PG Nagler, D Lampkin, EP
Glenn, F Molina-Freanar, T Markow, AR Huete.
2006. Buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare) land
conversion and productivity in the Plains of
Sonora, Mexico. Biological Conservation 127
62-71.
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Remote Sensing, (Franklin ea 2006)
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Spread Modeling in Sonora
Models based on a genetic algorithm for soils,
elevation, and precipitation
Arriaga L, AE Castellanos, E Moreno J Alarcón.
2004. Potential ecological distribution of alien
invasive species and risk assessment a case
study of buffel grass in arid regions of Mexico.
Conservation 18 1504-1514.
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Potential Range of Buffelgrass

• Based on
• STATSGO soils data
• clay, soil depth, AWC, erodibility, permeability)
• summer precip (PRISM 4km interpolated precip,
  averaged over JJAS from 1989-2005)
• topography (elevation, slope, aspect, curvature).

Courtesy of Aaryn Olsson
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Potential distribution of buffelgrass in Pima and
Santa Cruz Counties, Arizona, based on neural net
model that uses soil and topographic data from
SSURGO and a USGS 10-m resolution DEM. Greatest
suitability is depicted as red, least as blue
(Olsson 2006).
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PHENOLOGY

• Implications for control and spread

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Buffelgrass Phenology VERY PLASTIC

• Given certain climatic variables
• When does greenup start?
• How long will it last?
• Biomass production-when how much?
• Seed production-when how much?
• Seedling emergence-when how much?
• Seedling survival?
• Freeze damage?

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Buffelgrass Phenology VERY PLASTIC

• Given certain climatic variables
• When does greenup start?
• How long will it last?
• Biomass production-when how much?
• Seed production-when how much?
• Seedling emergence-when how much?
• Seedling survival?
• Freeze damage?

Seedling survival by slope aspect
Cumulative precip
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Predictive Seedling Emergence

• Ward JP, Smith SE, MP McClaran. Water
  requirements for emergence of buffelgrass
  (Pennisetum ciliare). 2006. Weed Science
  54720-725.

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Predictive Seedling Emergence

• Ward JP, Smith SE, MP McClaran. Water
  requirements for emergence of buffelgrass
  (Pennisetum ciliare). 2006. Weed Science
  54720-725.

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Seedbanks
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Buffelgrass invaded slopeat Panther Peak in
Saguaro NP
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Adjacent slope w/o buffelgrassat Panther Peak in
Saguaro NP
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SeedbanksData from Panther Peak in Saguaro NP
P lt 0.05 P lt 0.001
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Invasion patterns

• Predicting whats next

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Only 3 non-native spp. in 1906, 34 in 1983, 44 in
2005
Anklam
Salsola iberica
Greasewood
Brassica tournefortii
Castalis tragus
Starr Pass
Schismus spp.
Bromus rubens
Erodium cicutarium
Burgess, TL, JE Bowers, RM Turner. 1991. Exotic
plants at the Desert Laboratory, Tucson, Arizona.
Madrono 3896-114.
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Invasion Patterns

• Bowers, JE, TM Bean, and RM Turner. 2006. Two
  decades of change in distribution of exotic
  plants at the Desert Laboratory, Tucson, Arizona.
  Madroño 53254-265.

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Invasion Patterns

• Bowers, JE, TM Bean, and RM Turner. 2006. Two
  decades of change in distribution of exotic
  plants at the Desert Laboratory, Tucson, Arizona.
  Madroño 53254-265.

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Rhus lancea invading from adjacent neighborhoods
Silvercroft Wash
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Take home messages

• Proportion of ornamental exotics doubled in 22
  yrs
• Longer a species is present, the more likely it
  will become invasive
• Thresholds for transition from naturalized to
  invasive have been tentatively identified (needs
  replication)

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S. AZ as an incubator for future invasions?
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SCIENCE NEEDS- the laundry list

• Remote Sensing Repeated Mapping
• Economic analysis (cost of control)
• Web-based Decision Support Systems
• Spread models
• Impact on rare species critical habitat
• Eradication treatment experiments
• Restoration after treatment or fire
• Effects of Herbicides
• Phenological Models- prediction of green-up and
  herbicide effectiveness
• Seed Bank Dispersal Ecology
• Soil Nutrient Dynamics
• Genetic studies
• Biocontrol

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We already know more than we will ever
understand. We already understand more than we
need to take action.

• Charles Bowden

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Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan
174M Open Space Bond passed in May 2004
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Effect of various herbicides on injury of
Pennisetum. 9healthy, 1dead (Purdue Univ and
Univ Illinois 2006).
LSD1.4
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Methods for Determining Buffelgrass Roads
Treatment Costs
PCLIS Jurisdictions (polygon)
ALRIS Land ownership (polygon)
ESRI Data roads (line)
ASDM Buffelgrass (point)
ASDM Buffelgrass (line)
Spatial Union
Manual trimming
Merged Land Ownership (polygon)
Trimmed roads (line)
Spatial Intersection
Spatial Intersection
Roads By Land Owner (line)
Buffered roads (250m) (polygon)
Buffelgrass points X roads
Export Table
Export Table
Roads by Land Owner (table)
Buffelgrass points by Road (table)
SQL Query
Number and Type of Buffelgrass Patches by Land
Owner
Estimate QuantitiesAcres treatable
buffelgrassfor each type of patch (density
1-4) Acres of buffelgrass For each type of
patch (I1, I2, I3, C1, C2, C3, C4)
Total Continuous Acres Buffelgrass by Land Owner
Total Patch Acres Buffelgrass by Land Owner