AFET YNETIMI

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efca 2004 conference Istanbul 22-25 may 2004
PRO-ACTIVE DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Murat Sungur BURSA Director Prime
Ministry Project Implementation Unit
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What is a natural disaster?

• is a geophyisical, atmospheric or hydrological
  event
• impacts vulnerable communities or geographical
  areas,
• causes substantial damage, disruption and
  casualties
• leaves the affected communities unable to
  function normally.

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Man-made vs Natural Disasters

• natural disasters are predictible,
• individuals and societies can prepare for
  natural disasters
• disaster losses can be minimized or sometimes
  can be avoided
• types of natural disasters are limited and known

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Types of natural disasters?
Earthquakes 130 million people are exposed every
year to earthquake risk. Tropical cyclones 119
million people are exposed every year to
thropical cyclone hazard Floods About 196
million people are exposed every year to
catastrophic flooding. Droughts 220 million
people are exposed annually to drought mostly in
Africa.
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Types of man-made disasters?
endless list.......
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Global Cost of Natural Disasters

• 2.1 billion people affected by natural disasters
  from 1991 to 2000.
• 1.5 million people killed by natural disasters
  in recent 20 years.
• 3000 people exposed to natural disasters per
  killed person.
• Global economic losses for 1992-2002 were 7.3
  times greater than the 1960s.
• Average yearly losses due to natural disasters
  during 1990s is US63 billion.
• The global cost of natural disasters is
  anticipated to top US300 billion annualy by 2050.

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Are costs fairly and evenly borne?

• 97 of people killed due to disasters are from
  low-income or developing countries.
• Although 15 of exposed population live in
  developed countries, only 1.8 of killed people
  live in these countries.
• With similar patterns of disasters, Peru
  fatalities average 2900 a year and Japan averages
  63.
• Annual GDP losses in developing countries is
  2-15

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Are costs fairly and evenly borne?

• Economic loss (as a percent of GNP) in
  developing countries is 20 times greater than
  developed ones.
• 94 of major natural disasters ocurred in
  developing countries.
• 98 of people affected by natural disasters live
  in developing countries.
• The average number of victims during disasters
  in the developing world is 150 times larger than
  in the developed world.

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Conclusion?
Disasters are becoming a development issue rather
than a humanitarian issue.
Developed countries are less affected
Developing countries lose income, production
capacity human-lives
Solution ???
??? Change location ???
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Fate or choice?
Changes in development models and policies
Awareness
Preparedness
Pro-active Strategy
Disaster risk is inevitable, but can be managed
and reduced through appropriate development
actions.
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Were Romans more lucky?
Global catastrophic events are 4 times higher in
recent 30 years
WHY?
Climate change
Urbanization
Population growth
Disasters are the results of ??? development
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??? DEVELOPMENT
Unplanned development Lack of risk
assessment Hazard ignorant physical
planning Resource gap Ignorance of mitigation
High Vulnerability Sub-standard building
practice Corrupted building code
enforcement Illegal and unplanned settlements
Capacity Building Awareness/consciousness/educatio
n Marginal cost of decreasing risks Organizational
and legislative framework
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• TURKEY
• Average annual number of earthquakes equal or
  greater than a magnitude of 5.5 on the Richter
  scale 0.76
• (6th in the world)
• Number of people killed per year due to
  earthquakes 950
• (3rd in the world)
• Average number of people killed per million
  inhabitants 15.58 (4th in the world)
• Average physical exposure per year 2 745 757
  people (8th in the world)
• Killed per million exposed relative
  vulnerability 346 people (4th in the world)

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Istanbul

• Comparable seismic risk degree with San
  Francisco, Los Angeles and Tokyo cities
• Probability of occurence of a large earthquake
  in next 30 years is greater than 50.
• Probability of occurence of a large earthquake
  in next 10 years is greater than 20.
• Social and economic impacts after a probable 7.5
  Richter scale earthquake in Istanbul
• Approximately 70.000 dead people,120.000
  injured-heavily injured people, 400.000 light
  injured people
• 30 billion USD

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Ceylan Intercontinental
???
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1999 Marmara Earthquake

• 18000 lives lost
• 113.000 housing units and business premises were
  completely destroyed.
• 264.000 damaged to varying degrees
• Up to 600.000 people were forced to leave their
  homes.
• 10-15 billion direct cost

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Lessons learned from Marmara Earthquake

• Communication
• Communication failed.
• Telephone lines were out of order in first 48
  hours.
• Mobiles did not function

• First Aid Rescue
• Lack of organization and coordination in search
  rescue activities
• Caotic situation
• Bureaucracy inhibiting efficiency and
  effectiveness
• Insufficient logistic supports
• Voluntary efforts were not trained and organised

• Losses
• Sub-standard buildings and infrastructure
• Hazard ignorant development
• Lack of code enforcement
• Improper inspection
• Corrupted permitting and licensing

• Serious Resource Gap
• 10-15 billion as direct cost
• 5 of Turkeys GNP

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PRO-ACTIVE DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Assessment of Risks

• Identification of Hazards
• Assessment of Exposure
• Vulnerability
• Estimation of losses

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PRO-ACTIVE STRATEGY
1. Emergency preparedness

• Emergency Management System
• Emergency Response Capacity
• Search Rescue (trained and equiped)
• Emergency Communication Systems
• Disaster Management Information System
• Public Awareness
• Training and organizing voluntary activities
• Press and TVs

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PRO-ACTIVE STRATEGY
2. Risk mitigation

• Planning
• Microzonation
• Hazard mapping and land-use planning
• Contingency plans
• Action plans
• Urban re-generation plans
• Decreasing density in congested areas
• Code enforcement
• Installation of early warning and monitoring
  systems
• Improving infrastructure
• Retrofitting / re-building to higher standards
• Structural and non-structural measures
• Resilient society

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PRO-ACTIVE STRATEGY
3. Institutional individual capacity building

• Achieving good governance through participation,
  rule of law, transparency, equity, effectiveness
  and efficiency
• Development of organizational framework
• establishment of authorised, professional,
  competent authorities
• effective de-centralization
• Development of legislative framework
• codes, by-laws, ordinances, technical manuals,
  regulations
• Awareness
• Training education

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PRO-ACTIVE STRATEGY
4. Financing

• Ability / inability of a country to finance
  post-disaster obligations
• Allocation of resources for a pro-active
  strategy
• Ex-post sources of funding (budgetary, direct
  aid, foreign aid, tax increases, loans and
  borrowings)
• Measures for a resource gap
• Ex-ante funding arrangements
• catastrophe insurance pools
• risk transfer
• contingent debt facilities

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Sine qua non for PRO-ACTIVE STRATEGY
MORE AND EFFICIENT EMPLOYMENT OF CONSULTANT
ENGINEERS AND ARCHTICETS
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Thank you...