Report of the Outcome of the Workshop on emissions projections from Annex I Parties Bonn, 6-8 September 2004 Micheal Young Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government Ireland.

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Report of the Outcome of the Workshop on
emissions projections from Annex I Parties Bonn,
6-8 September 2004 Micheal YoungDepartment of
Environment, Heritage and Local
GovernmentIreland.

• Workshop on the preparation of fourth national
  communications from Annex I Parties.
• Dublin, 30 September 1 October 2004

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Objectives

• To discuss methods, assumptions, indicators, key
  parameters of models and sensitivity analysis and
  dissemination of methodologies
• Exchange of information
• 23 presentations to stimulate discussion

Attendance 36 Parties of which 7 Non Annex I 5
NGOs.
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Format of Workshop

• 3 Working Papers
• UNFCCC Secretariat
• Day 1 Cross cutting issues.
• Presentation 10 Parties
• Day 2 Energy, Industry and Waste
• Presentations from 9 Parties
• Agriculture and Land use, Land-use Change
  Forestry
• Presentations from 4 Parties
• Day 3 Plenary Discussion

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General and cross-cutting Reporting Issues

• Consistent definition of projections scenarios
• with measures all PMs
• with additional measures all GHG mitigation
  PMs clearly defined.
• without measures - counterfactual but useful
  ex post information on efficacy of past GHG
  measures.
• Transparent presentation of information
• Sectoral and GHG basis using template
• Summary information on methodologies, models and
  key assumptions

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General and cross-cuttingReporting Issues

• Consistency with latest available GHG inventory
• Preference for finalised GHG data.
• Same sectoral breakdown for projections and
  inventories
• Institutional arrangements
• Important given cross disciplinary nature of task

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General and cross-cuttingMethodological Issues

• Approach should best suit national circumstances
• Not possible to indicate particular model type
• Integration of cross-country factors
• Consultation with neighbouring Parties
• Electricity imports/exports
• Uncertainty assessment
• Sensitivity analysis
• Monte Carlo simulation techniques

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General and cross-cuttingMethodological Issues

• How to facilitate comparability?
• Common international assumptions
• Oil prices, carbon prices etc
• Projection of macroeconomic costs and impacts
• How were costs estimated?
• Dissemination of methodologies
• UNFCCC Secretariat

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Energy, transport, industry wasteissues

• Key source analysis from GHG inventory to inform
  projections
• Availability of robust data
• Benefit of complete energy balance
• reality check for F gases
• Emissions trading and project based mechanisms
• Emissions from transport shown separately
• Important to model individual transport modes.
• Model spillover effects of PMs on nonAnnex I
  Parties
• .

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Agriculture and LULUCF

• Appropriate projected emission factor
• Methane emission factor from livestock
• Likely increased importance of sensitivity
  analysis
• Globalisation of agriculture
• Timefame for projections
• Generally 10 years
• Recommendation for specialised models?
• Better to focus on good scientific practice
• Presentation of main drivers key source
  analysis
• Importance of textual interpretation

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Agriculture and LULUCF

• Forestry projections well established
• Challenges for LULUCF projections
• Harvesting rate international timber prices
• Soil carbon stock changes in land
  use/management practices
• Defining land use, tracking changes
• IPCC Good Practice Guidance
• Will significantly improve inventory and hence
  projections
• Derive list of drivers recommendation for
  Specialised models?

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Conclusions.

• Improve reporting Enhance clarity of guidelines
• Consistent definition of scenarios
• Transparent presentation of information
• Descriptions of models, drivers.
• Uncertainty assessment
• Institutional arrangements
• Exchange of information