Transportation Infrastructure Projects: From Conception to Implementation

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Transportation Infrastructure Projects From
Conception to Implementation

• By
• Prof. S. L. Dhingra
• Transportation Systems Engineering
• IIT Bombay

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The Stages

• Conception
• Identification of project alternatives
• Selection of the best alternative
• Implementation
• Construction of the project
• Operation and Maintenance

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Classic Four-Stage Sequential Travel Demand Model
Trip Generation
Trip Distribution Demand
Modal Split
Traffic Assignment Supply
Considering Environmental Protection Economy
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Travel Demand Modeling Planning Variables

• Study area
• Internal zones
• External zones
• Plan Periods
• Demographic and Socio-economic data
• Protection of planning variables
• Transport network
• Origin and Destination Survey

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TRIP GENERATION

• Trip Productions
• Trip Attractions

• Aggregate Analysis
• Disaggregate Analysis

• Zonal Models
• Household-based Models
• Regression Models
• Trip-rate Analysis
• Cross-classification Models

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Trip Distribution

• Growth Factor Method
• Synthetic Approach
• Basic Gravity Model
• BPR Gravity Model
• Entropy Maximizing Model
• Optimization Model

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Modal Split Models

• Trip end Modal Split Model
• Trip Interchange Modal Split Models
• Synthetic Models
• Model derived from trip distribution
• Direct Demand
• Analytical tools for modal split
• Diversion curve
• Regression analysis
• Discrete choice modal

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Traffic Assignment Models

• All Or Nothing Assignment Method
• Equilibrium Assignment Methods
• Diversion Models
• Dynamic Assignment Models
• Combined Models
• Direct Demand Model
• Combined Distribution Assignment Model
• Combined Modal Split and Route Choice Models

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Travel Demand Modeling Other Approaches

• Equilibrium Demand Modeling
• Traveler as consumer of transit trips
• Micro Economics - Utility Maximization
• Activity based analysis (Factors)
• Individual Traveler Level
• Type and Time of Activity
• Community Level
• Social Level
• Destination by mode
• Congestion

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Rural Road Planning Process

• Creation of road development plans
  (alternatives) for achieving the objectives of
  integrated rural development.
• Allocating priorities to rural areas under
  consideration through the various plans
• Qualification of the benefits of alternatives and
  subsequent comparison between competing plans.
• Selection of the optimal road development plan
  through the above process.

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Transport Priority Indices (TPI) in a Systems
Framework

• The Need -
• Huge investments involved and priority needs to
  be given to villages with higher population and
  potential market surplus.
• The proposals discussed are those initiated by
• the State Government of Karnataka
• the Indonesian rural roads study group
• the ARD (Accelerated Rural Development) road
  network of Thailand

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The Karnataka State Government proposal for
computing TPI
Marking or index based system with highest
marks for villages with population greater
than 1000 people. The indices are based on
factors such as population, village
accessibility, local market, regulated market,
hospital, post office, school, and
electrification. Each factor is assigned some
marks and the priority is based on the total
marks. Drawback of method- only few factors
considered.
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The Indonesian Rural Road Study Group proposal
for computing TPI
2 components for TPI - Requirement factors and
Provision factors. Requirement factors such as
traffic flow, traffic growth, population density,
socio-economic benefits expected, area of
influence, and network significance. Provision
factors such as length of road, surface type,
surface condition, terrain, carriageway and
formation width, stability of drainage and
culverts, condition of bridges and major
crossings TPI given by (Requirement factor
score/Provision factor score)100.
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ARD (Accelerated Rural Development) road network
proposal of Thailand for TPI
2 Factors Benefit and Cost factors. Benefit
factors such as agricultural production,
cultivable land, water availability, population,
existing road condition, traffic volume,
co-operation among people, public utilities and
private enterprises. Benefit and Cost scores
worked out after giving certain marks to all the
factors. TPI (Total Benefit Score) / (Total
Cost Score)
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Trip Generation Distribution in a Systems
Framework
Village with the highest TPI is identified and
is designated as the origin node. Destinations
to which traffic is generated from the origin
node are also identified and are designated as
the destination nodes. Primary survey enables
traffic estimation from the village by different
transportation modes as well as distribution
among various links. For inter zonal trip
generation in the village region, a gravity model
is hypothesized and calibrated to estimate the
slope and intercept coefficients.
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Organizational Setup for Planning and Prioritizing

• Formation of Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)
• Preparation of proposal/tender document
• Guidelines for selection of tenders
• Pre-bid selection
• Selection of PMC
• Selection of contractors
• Proof consultants

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UNDP - Government of India Project on Pro-poor
Globalisation

• Aim
• Informed and participatory pro-poor policy
  making, strategy and programme formulation
• Methodology
• Review of already conducted research on pro-poor
  and anti-poor impacts of globalisation
• Additional research and analysis
• Involvement of the poor in the policy dialogue
• Making information accessible to lay- person

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Methodology for Selection of Proposal

• Organisations short-listed on the basis of
  initial proposals
• Selection of 3 top-ranked proposals based on
  their presentations
• Initial contract awarded to these 3 organisations
  to further refine and detail their proposal, work
  plan and project strategy.
• Review of final proposals by a panel
• Project awarded to the highest ranked proposal

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Decision Making

• Importance of decision making at every stage
  during the project
• Two important steps in the decision making
  process
• Course of action, which contains recognition,
  discovery and contraction of ideas
• Finding alternative strategies
• Decision making is complex due to multiplicity of
  attributes

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Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)

• Importance in design and planning
• Some MCDM techniques
• Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
• Fuzzy Set Methodology
• Metagame Theory

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Analytical Hierarchy Process

• Basic principles of AHP
• Hierarchic representation and decomposition
• Priority discrimination and synthesis
• Logical consistency
• Series of pair-wise comparisons carried out to
  obtain the preference order
• Each decision alternative assigned a weight
• Weights represent the alternatives desirability

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• Applications in fields like
• conflict analysis
• operations research
• portfolio selection
• bid evaluation
• capital budgeting

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FUZZY SET ANALYSIS
Transportation planning involves Qualitative and
quantitative analysis including uncertain
Attributes and Characteristics. Fuzzy Analysis
takes care of this important aspect of
transportation planning.
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• FUZZY LOGIC
• Fuzziness in Transportation Analysis
• In the study of transportation problems,
  fuzziness is
• found in many aspects of analysis
• Perception of data and information,
• Knowledge base,
• Statement of goals and objectives, and
• Problem definition.

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General Procedure for Fuzzy Analysis ?Define
fuzzy problem in detail ?Identify all important
variables and their ranges ?Determine
membership profiles for each variable
range ?Determine rules(prepositional statements
), and ?Select defuzzification methodology.
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METHODOLOGY
The following are the steps of the methodology
1. Identifying the modes which will form
attributes (i,e., factors) of those
coordinated modes.
2. Categorizing different interest groups.
3. Forming termed rating matrix, with columns as
modes and rows as factors.
4. Constructing of different rating matrices as
per the views of respective interest groups
5. Aggregation of rating matrices
6. Forming dominance matrix from the dominance
of one mode over the other mode
7. Calculating the share of service by each
mode in a coordinated system.
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Case Study
The city of Calcutta, with five different mass
transit modes, is considered for the case
study.
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Case Study
The attributes considered for each mode are
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Case Study
Rating matrix for commuters opinion
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Case Study
Rating Matrix for Planners Opinion
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Case Study
Rating Matrix for the Researchers Opinion
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Case Study
The aggregation matrices using
pessimistic aggregation and optimistic
aggregation are
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Case Study
Optimistic Aggregate
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Case Study
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Case Study
Dominance Matrix for Optimistic Aggregation
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Case Study
Final Ranking and share by each coordinated
modes by both the techniques are
Ranking and of modal share for Pessimistic
Aggregation
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Case Study
Ranking and of modal share for Optimistic
Aggregation
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FINDINGS

• The modal shares among the co-ordinated modes
  by both the methods are

• This indicates the order of priority

• The approaches give the qualitative as
  well as quantitative appraisal of the share of
  different mass transit modes.

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METAGAME ANALYSIS

• Player
• Options
• Strategy
• Outcome
• Stability Analysis
• Unilateral Improvements
• Inescapable Sanctions
• Inescapable Improvements

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Technique of application (analysis of choice)
Set theory logic classical game theory
Metalevel Analysis
Checking the theory by experiment
Application
METALEVEL ANALYSIS
Situation or conflict - a game Major decision
makers - identified as players Specified no.
of options with the player A possible selection
of options for a particular player - his
strategy Situation where each player chooses a
strategy - outcome
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Application of Metagame Analysis

• Case Study for implementation of underground
  railway system in the city of Calcutta
• Conflict between the users and the implementers
  regarding the fares for underground railway

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Stability Analysis
Conflicting condition Choice values for the conflicts A B Stable Solution
I. Implementers want to introduce UR. They are reluctant to offer fare less than the existing fare. I 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0
Commuters are interested to use UR and also want less fare than existing one C 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0
II. Implementers are willing to introduce UR and may or may not provide less fare than the existing one I 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
Commuters are reluctant to use UR if the fare is not like the existing one. C 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
III. Implementers are indifferent to introduce UR and reluctant to offer fare less than the existing one . I 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0
Commuters are willing to avail the service of UR even the fare does not go below the existing one. C 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1
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ADVANTAGES

• helps in the resolution of conflicts between
  parties having a difference of opinion.
• a non-quantitative method of analysis
• LIMITATIONS
• quite complicated in case of multi player and
  multi choice conditions
• May not always lead to a stable solution

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CASE STUDIES

• The following case studies will be discussed
• Mumbai - Pune Expressway Project
• The 50 Flyovers Project (Mumbai Traffic
  Improvement Mega-Project)
• Western Freeway Sea Link Project
• Bandra - Worli Sea Link Project, etc.

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SUMMARY

• Traditional four stage Transportation Planning
  methodology is discussed.
• Fundamentals behind the various techniques
  adopted in decision making for mega
  transportation infrastructure projects are
  discussed.
• An insight is provided into the procedure
  involved from conception to implementation stage
  supported by case studies of various
  transportation projects.

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CONCLUSIONS

• Projects should be well-conceived and
  economically efficient, using latest tools for
  decision analysis.
• Decision analysis should be through PMC , TAC as
  well as conflict resolution, for different stages
  in the projects.
• It is necessary to have appropriate institutional
  set up for effective conception, planning,
  prioritization, decision analysis, PMC/contractor
  selection and effective implementation through
  Q/A checks.

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Thank You