Changing Climate, Changing Coasts, Increasing climate security through coastal management

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Changing Climate, Changing Coasts, Increasing
climate security through coastal management
Jennifer Graham, Ecology Acton Centre
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Ecology Action Centre

• Coastal
• Marine
• Energy
• Food
• Transportaion
• Built Environnent
• Wilderness

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Overview

• Nova Scotias coasts
• Climate change impacts
• Economic and societal implications
• Cost-effective climate security (adaptation)
  strategies

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Defining the Coast

• Interface between land and sea
• High mixing, high productivity, high
  biodiversity, high sensitivity
• How far inland does ocean reach? (tides, storm
  surges), and
• How far out to sea does coastal zone extend?
• Flexible definition (issue based)

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NS Coastal Province!
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Importance of the Coast

• 7,600 km coastline including 3,800 islands
• 70 of Nova Scotias population lives along the
• coast
• 14 of jobs in the province are coastal/ocean
  related, greater in coastal communities
• Hundreds of km of provincial highway and coastal
  infrastructure
• In Queens County, between 2000 and 2004, 38
  percent of new housing construction took place on
  coastal lots.

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Tourism Values of the Coast

• Tourism is a 1.29 Billion Dollar Industry
• 40,000 jobs
• Contributes over 200 million in municipal,
  provincial and federal Taxes
• 43 of Canadian visitors to NS explore beaches

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Working Waterfronts
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Coastal Ecosystems and Habitat
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NS Special Beaches
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Dynamic Coasts
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Coastal areas are constantly changing

• Adjacent land use
• Waves
• Tides
• Ice
• Weather
• Wind
• Erosion

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Building on Shaky Ground!
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Coastal Squeeze
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NS and Climate Change

• NS extremely sensitive to climate change
• Air temperature global average surface
  temperature will increase by 1.1 to 6.4C between
  1990 and 2100
• Relative Sea level rise 0.7-1.2 m
• Higher sea levels storm surges, erosion,
  flooding
• We know general risks and vulnerabilities a lot
  of uncertainty about the local impacts

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Coastal Sensitivity to Climate Change
Québec
Newfoundland
New Brunswick
PEI
Risk High Medium Low
Nova Scotia
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Source Sensitivity of Coastline to Climate Change
in Nova Scotia, Vulnerability Assessment and
Adaptation Options Province of Nova Scotia
Environment Canada Atlantic , Sept.2005
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Sea-level change Halifax
Mean yearly tidal height (mm above zero datum)
r2 0.93
y/x 3.29 mm/year
Year A.D.
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Climate Change Impacts

• Storm Surges and floods
• Accelerated erosion
• Changes in precipitation patterns
• Changes in ocean circulation
• Pests and diseases
• Affect migratory routes and breeding success

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Projected flooding under Saxby Gale conditions


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Storm surge damage
Hurricane Juan 2003 gt 200 million in damages
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Financial and Societal Implications
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Insurance Industry Perspective

• The industry is concerned with both increased
  claims from severe weather events and exposure to
  the insurance industry. our industry is liable
  by contract to assume risks before we know what
  they are. A changing climate poses a particular
  challenge as future weather-related risks are
  estimated based on historical trends which are no
  longer good indicators (Tremblay, 2008)

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Increasing liability and decreasing property
values
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Exposure to liability (buyers and sellers)
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Rising Costs of Natural Disasters

• Global economic losses associated with natural
  disasters rose from 50billion in 1950s to 880
  billion n the 1990s
• Flood risk along Atlantic Coast expected to rise
  by 80 by 2030 with one foot sea level rise
  (Lloyds of London)
• January 2000, storm surge in Northumberland
  Strait caused 1.5 million in damage
• Quebec/Ontario ice storm (1998) 5 billion dollars
  in damage. Second biggest insurance pay out was
  after flash floods in Toronto in 2005.
• In Canada weather-related naural disasters
  increased from 2-4 to year to 0-12 in the last
  decades

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Cities are particularly vulnerable

• 60of Canadians live in urban areas
• Canadas 7 largest city generate 45 of the GDP
• Cities increasingly dependent on their lifelines
  (transportation, waste disposal, communication
  and power, sewage)
• Blizzards and heavy snowfalls that cripple large
  cities have major economic impacts (Vancouver
  1996 Toronto, 1999).

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Cost Effective AdaptationEvery dollar spent on
mitigation climate change damage saves society
four dollars in recovery costs
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Insurance Bureau of Canada

• Reinforce/improve infrastructure
• Strengthen building codes and build in climatic
  design values
• Consider sweeping land use revisions
• Improve disaster preparedness
• Improve risk assessment and hazard mapping

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Strengthen Coastal systems as part of risk
reduction strategy

• Coastal policies and land use regulations
• Coastal land acquisition
• Ecosystem restoration projects
• No-net-loss of wetlands
• Coastal mapping and climate change modelling
• Education and research

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Wetlands natural sponges
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Restoring tidal flow
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Beaches buffers
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The role of coastal policy

• Provides a framework that recognizes the
  ecological value, economic significance and
  vulnerability of coastal areas
• Develops measures to protect and enhance these
  values
• Reduces risks and costs associated with natural
  disasters
• Is integral to an adaptation strategy