Japan EOS Promotion Program (JEPP) Theme 2-1 Observation Network in Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent: Japan Agency for Earth-Marine Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)

1
Introduction of the MAHASRI as the Post-GAME
Monsoon Research Program in Asia Jun
Matsumoto Department of Earth Planetary
Science, University of Tokyo Japan Agency for
Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)/
Institute of Observational Research for Global
Change (IORGC) Chairman of the Post-GAME Planning
Working Group
Flood in Assam, India, August, 2004
2
Status of the post-GAME planning

• Aug. 28, 2005 1-st International Planning
  Workshop at Kyoto, Japan
• Sept. 26, 2005 First proposal in the GEWEX
  Hydrometeorology Panel (GHP) meeting, at
  Melbourne, Australia
• Nov. 1, 2005 2-nd International Planning
  Workshop at Tokyo, Japan
• Still in the build-up stage, until September 2006
  

3
Project title (candidates proposed in the final
GAME Conference etc.)

• COPAM Coordinated Observation Prediction of
  Asian Monsoon (Proposed in the Final GAME Science
  Conference in December 2004)
• COMAP Coordinated Monsoon Asian Program
• GMAP GEOSS Monsoon Asian Program
• ICECREAM International Cooperative Experiments
  for Climatic Research on Asian Monsoon
• PHACE-AM Project on Hydro-Atmospheric
  Collaborative Experiment in Asian Monsoon
• COPE-AM Coordinated Observation and Prediction
  Experiment in (for) Asian Monsoon
• AM-CoRE Asian Monsoon Coordinated Research and
  Experiment

4
Project title (tentative)

• MAHASRI
• Monsoon Asia Hydro-Atmosphere Scientific
  Research and Prediction Initiative
• or
• Monsoon Asia Hydrosphere-Atmosphere Scientific
  Research and Prediction Initiative
• or
• Monsoon Asia Hydrospheric-Atmospheric System
  Research and Prediction Initiative

5
Bodhisattva Stupa-mahasri ???????? also known as
the Vajra of Joyous Benefit. Stupa refers to the
5 Elements that constitutes all sentient beings.
This deity manifests the joy of liberation in the
midst of the endless cycles of birth death that
sentient beings experience.
6
Objective

• "To establish hydro-meteorological prediction
  system, particularly up to seasonal time-scale,
  through better scientific understanding of Asian
  monsoon variability".

7
Key Science Issues (1)

• Atmosphere-ocean-land interactions in the Asian
  monsoon system
• Scale-interactions among diurnal, synoptic,
  intraseasonal and seasonal variability of Asian
  monsoon
• Interactions of surface and boundary layer
  processes with convective cloud system
• Comparisons of hydro-meteorological
  characteristics among regional monsoon
  sub-systems

8
Key Science Issues (2)

• Effect of human influences (i.e., aerosols,
  land-use change, and greenhouse-gas increase) on
  hydro-meteorological variations in Asian monsoon
  regions
• Down-scaling and up-scaling for/with regional
  hydro-meteorological modeling and forecast
• Transferability of land-surface hydrological
  models and parameters for prediction of ungauged
  basins
• Incorporation of new technologies for observation
  and computation

9
Linear trend of summer precipitation(JJA)1961-200
0
increasing
Analysis based on daily rainfall data of more
than 700 stations for 1950s-2000
Changes in the Pacific Ocean? Changes in the
Tibetan Plateau? Global warming? Aerosol
increase? Deforestation over Indochina etc.??
decreasing
(Endo et al., 2005)
10
What will we achieve?

• Determine predictability and key phenomena of
  Asian monsoon variability up-to seasonal
  time-scale for the use of hydro-meteorological
  prediction system
• Develop real-time monitoring and/or modeling
  system for hydro-meteorological prediction and
  water management in specific river basins in
  Asian monsoon regions
• Develop integrated hydrometeorological database
  of Asian monsoon regions with data rescue

11
International cooperation strategies

• Facilitate and/or improve hydro-meteorological
  observations in Asian monsoon countries in
  conjunction with GEOSS
• Cooperate with CEOP-II by observations, data and
  hydrometeorelogical studies in Asian monsoon
• Contribute IPY by conducting intensive
  observations in Asian monsoon region
• Capacity building for observation, analysis,
  data-integration and modeling
• Data exchange to establish an integrated database

12
Differences from GAME?

• More concrete collaboration with Asian
  hydrometeorological agencies and research
  institutes
• ? Present proto-type model for the
  hydrometeorological prediction system
• Expansion the target field not only air-land
  interaction but also air-land-sea interaction,
  thus closer collaboration with CLIVAR community
• Expansion of the target area over the Maritime
  Continent, Western Pacific, and India, while
  retreat from Siberia

13
CSEs
Data Management
Water and Energy Budget Studies
Northeast Asia
MAHASRI
Worldwide Integrated Study of Extremes
East Asia
Tibet/Himalaya
Stable Water Isotope Intercomparison Group
Tropics
Transferability
Water Resource Applications Project
14
Differences from GAME?

• More concrete collaboration with Asian
  hydrometeorological agencies and research
  institutes
• ? Present proto-type model for the
  hydrometeorological prediction system
• Expansion the target field not only air-land
  interaction but also air-land-sea interaction,
  thus closer collaboration with CLIVAR community
• Expansion of the target area over the Maritime
  Continent, Western Pacific, and India, while
  retreat from Siberia
• Targeting also winter monsoon
• Main time-scale weekly to seasonal for
  prediction, year-to-year variability for research
  including long-term data rescue

15
Structure of (MAHASRI)

• Core Centers
• Program promotion office (PPO) for coordination
  of Observations and Modeling activities
• Coordinated Modeling Center (CMC)
• Data Archive Management Center (DAMC)
• Regional Centers (RC)
• Affiliated (coordinated) Projects
• National projects
• International or mutli-national projects

16
Structure of (MAHASRI)
Project A
Project B
PPC
Project X
CMC
DAMC
Project C
Core Structure
Project E
APHW AOGS
Project D
Each Project may be National, multi-national
or International.
2005. 11. 1 version
17
Structure of (MAHASRI)
Project A
RC-2
RC-1
Project B
PPC
Project X
RC-3
Japan EOS Promotion Program (JEPP)
CMC
DAMC
Project C
Core Structure
Project E
APHW AOGS
RC-4
Project D
Each Project may be National, multi-national
or International.
2005. 11. 1 version
18
Japan EOS Promotion Program (JEPP) Theme 2-1
Observation Network in Indian Ocean and Maritime
Continent Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science
and Technology (JAMSTEC)
Maritime-Continent Radar Network M. D. Yamanaka
(IORGC)

• Indian-Ocean Mooring Array
• K. Mizuno (IORGC)

Radar Observation H. Hashiguchi (KyotoU) Y.Shibaga
ki (OsakaECU) T.Shimomai (ShimaneU) M.K.Yamamoto(
KyotoU) M.Kawashima, Y.Fujiyoshi (Hokkaido U) R.
Shirooka, M.Katsumata (IORGC)
Data Analysis M. D. Yamanaka (IORGC/KobeU) S.
Mori, P.M. Wu, Hamada J.I., S. Ogino,
K.Ichiyanagi, T.Sasaki (IORGC) Y.Tachibana
(IORGC/TokaiU)
Buoy Observation Y. Kuroda (IORGC/MARITEC) K.
Ando (IORGC) Y.Yamaguchi,Y.Ishihara K.Matsumoto
(MARITEC)
Data Analysis Y. Masumoto (IORGC/UTokyo) H.Hase,
I.Ueki (IORGC)
19
Japan EOS Promotion Program (JEPP) Theme 2-2
Observation research and technology development
on water cycle and climatic changes in Asian
monsoon regionDevelopment of rainfall
observation system in Southeast Asia Jun
Matsumoto (University of Tokyo JAMSTEC/ IORGC)
(2)Flood prediction
(1)Rainfall distribution
Rainfall observation system study(Matsumoto UT)
Rainfall system and water cycle study (Kuraji UT)
Rainfall estimation by micro wave remote
sensing(Sato NICT)
Rainfall estimation using radar(HayashiKU.,
TeraoOGU )
Application of rainfall data to the flood
prediction system (KanaeRIHN)
Rainfall database(AgataUT)
Real-time rainfall map and its application to
flood prediction
20
Time Schedule

• Research phases
• September, 2005-September, 2006 Planning and
  preparation phase
• September, 2006-March, 2011(?) Research phase
  (2006-07 Build-up new observation systems)
• 2008 IOP-year in conjunction with IPY (?)
• 2009-2010 Major analysis phase
• March, 2011-March, 2012 Concluding phase

21
Short-term schedule

• Nov. 1, 2005 2-nd International Planning
  Workshop
• Nov. 2-4, 2005 Water Cycle Symposium in Asia
• Nov. 4-6, 2005 Workshop on Hydro-informatics and
  atmospheric sciences, Thailand
• Mid-November Proposal of Science Plan Draft to
  GEWEX-SSG members
• Jan. 2006 Proposal in the GEWEX-SSG
• Mar. 2006 Proposal in the WCRP-JSC
• April 2006 Workshop in the WMONEX meeting,
  Malaysia
• Oct. 16-18, 2006 APHW Meeting
• 1-st ISP meeting will be held along with
  scientific meeting in the special session