African%20Monsoon%20Multidisciplinary%20Analyses

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• African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses
• Afrikanske Monsun Multidisiplinære Analyser
• Afrikaanse Moesson Multidisciplinaire Analyse
• Analisi Multidisciplinare per il Monsone Africano
• Afrikanischer Monsun Multidisziplinäre Analysen
• Analisis Multidiciplinar de los Monzones
  Africanos
• Analyses Multidisciplinaires de la Mousson
  Africaine

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Todays Presentation
1. AMMA Overview and US Planning Chris
Thorncroft 2. THORPEX linkages Dave Parsons
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1. What is AMMA?
1.1 Introduction and Objectives

• African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA)
  is a coordinated international project to improve
  our knowledge and understanding of the West
  African monsoon (WAM) and its variability with an
  emphasis on daily-to-interannual timescales. AMMA
  is motivated by fundamental scientific issues and
  by the societal need for improved prediction of
  West African and American nations. International
  aims are
• To improve our understanding of the WAM and its
  influence on the physical, chemical and
  biological environment regionally and globally.

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1. What is AMMA?

1.1 Introduction and Objectives

• African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA)
  is a coordinated international project to improve
  our knowledge and understanding of the West
  African monsoon (WAM) and its variability with an
  emphasis on daily-to-interannual timescales. AMMA
  is motivated by fundamental scientific issues and
  by the societal need for improved prediction of
  West African and American nations. International
  aims are
• To improve our understanding of the WAM and its
  influence on the physical, chemical and
  biological environment regionally and globally.
• To provide the underpinning science that relates
  variability of the WAM to issues of health, water
  resources, food security and demography for West
  African nations and defining and implementing
  relevant monitoring and prediction strategies.

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1. What is AMMA?

1.1 Introduction and Objectives

• African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA)
  is a coordinated international project to improve
  our knowledge and understanding of the West
  African monsoon (WAM) and its variability with an
  emphasis on daily-to-interannual timescales. AMMA
  is motivated by fundamental scientific issues and
  by the societal need for improved prediction of
  West African and American nations. International
  aims are
• To improve our understanding of the WAM and its
  influence on the physical, chemical and
  biological environment regionally and globally.
• To provide the underpinning science that relates
  variability of the WAM to issues of health, water
  resources, food security and demography for West
  African nations and defining and implementing
  relevant monitoring and prediction strategies.
• To provide the underpinning science that relates
  variability of the WAM to Atlantic tropical
  cyclone variability and its impacts on the
  Americas and defining and implementing relevant
  monitoring and prediction strategies.

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1. What is AMMA?

1.1 Introduction and Objectives

• African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA)
  is a coordinated international project to improve
  our knowledge and understanding of the West
  African monsoon (WAM) and its variability with an
  emphasis on daily-to-interannual timescales. AMMA
  is motivated by fundamental scientific issues and
  by the societal need for improved prediction of
  West African and American nations. International
  aims are
• To improve our understanding of the WAM and its
  influence on the physical, chemical and
  biological environment regionally and globally.
• To provide the underpinning science that relates
  variability of the WAM to issues of health, water
  resources, food security and demography for West
  African nations and defining and implementing
  relevant monitoring and prediction strategies.
• To provide the underpinning science that relates
  variability of the WAM to Atlantic tropical
  cyclone variability and its impacts on the
  Americas and defining and implementing relevant
  monitoring and prediction strategies.
• To ensure that the multidisciplinary research
  carried out in AMMA is effectively integrated
  with prediction and decision making activity.

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1. What is AMMA?

• 1.2 International Planning
• Science plan on WAM produced by French community
  in 2001
• Workshops have taken place in UK (June 2001), US
  (Nov. 2001, 2002), Niger (Feb. 2002), Nice (April
  2003) and Cologne (July 2003)
• Scientists from more than 25 institutions in 15
  countries in Africa, Europe and the US are now
  involved.
• Benin Burkina Faso Cameroon Chad
• France Germany Ghana Ivory Coast
• Mali Niger Nigeria Senegal
• Togo UK US EU
• AMMANET African scientists developing African
  Science Plan
• Has received endorsement from WCRP (CLIVAR and
  GEWEX)

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1. What is AMMA?

1.3 International Science Steering Group
Co-Chairs o       Jean-Luc
Redelsperger, CNRM (CNRS Météo-France),
France o       Chris Thorncroft, University at
Albany (SUNY), US   Members o      
Abel Afouda, Université du Bénin, Benin o      
Anton Beljaars, ECMWF o       Bernard Bourles,
LEGOS, France o       Arona Diedhou, IRD, Niger
o       Andreas Fink, University of Cologne,
Germany o       Jim Haywood The Met Office,
UK o       Peter Lamb, University of Oklahoma,
US o       Thierry Lebel, LTHE, France o      
Bob Molinari, NOAA/AOML, US o       Doug Parker,
University of Leeds, UK o       Jan Polcher,
LMD/IPSL, France o       Joe Prospero, University
of Miami, US o       Claire Reeves, University of
East Anglia, UK  
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1. What is AMMA?

1.4 A multidisciplinary and multiscale approach
Global 2-way interactions between the WAM the
rest of the globe (e.g role of SST patterns on
WAM variability impact of WAM on tropical
Atlantic). Variability from seasonal to decadal
scales Regional Monsoon Dynamics and Scale
Interactions,Continental Water Cycle, Land and
Ocean Processes, Aerosols and Chemistry
Variability from intraseasonal to interannual
scales Mesoscale Mesoscale Convective
Systems, Tropical Cyclones, Catchments and
Vegetation Intraseasonal variability Sub-meso
(lt10km) Hydrological Cycle, Vegetation
Convective rain scalegtCoupling scale with
hydrology (Sahel)gtMain scale of interest for
agriculture,
MODELLING
SATELLITE S
OBSERVATIONS
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IMPACTS
Water Resources
Land Surfaces
Ocean
Health Risks
Multidisciplinary Research
Monsoon Dynamics
Food Security
Socio-Economy
Aerosols Chemistry
WEATHER CLIMATE PREDICTION ITS IMPACTS
Medium Range Seasonal-Interannual
Decadal Climate Change
DECISION MAKERS

African Hydrology, Energy Agriculture
Agencies (National Regional)
Health Food Security Agencies,
Humanitarian Orgnizations
African Foreign Governments
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SPACE (km)
Supra-
regional
(WA
Ocean
)
Catch, Idaf, Aeronet Impetus, Pirata, .
Long term Observation Period
1.3 A multidisciplinary and multiscale approach
Regional
(WA)
Mesoscale

Local
2002
2005
2006 2007 2008
TIME (
Years
)
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1. What is AMMA?

• 1.5 International Funding
• EU proposal has been successful and is
  recommended to be funded at the 11.7M Euro level
  (2005-2010)
• 2M Euro will be spent on radiosoundings over
  West Africa (05/07)
• France has mobilised 8M Euro for AMMA
• UK has a 2.5M Euro proposal news expected this
  month
• US SSG continues to promote US Science Proposal

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2. Why do we need AMMA?
2.1 The Societal need for improved weather and
climate prediction over West Africa
Time series (1941-2001) of average normalized
April-October rainfall departure for 20 stations
in the West African Soudano-Sahel zone (11-18N
and West of 10E) following methodology of Lamb
and Peppler, 1992).
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2. Why do we need AMMA?
2.1 The Societal need for improved weather and
climate prediction over West Africa

• Observed and modeled rainfall (with labels for
  onset and retreat) for Niamey based on
  area-average of 50 gauges and model simulated
  rainfall ( Lebel et al, 2000).

• Dominant pattern of precipitation error
• associated with dominant pattern of SST
  prediction error based on persistent SST
  anomalies (Goddard Mason ,Climate Dynamics,
  2002)

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2. Why do we need AMMA?
2.1 The Societal need for improved weather and
climate prediction over West Africa
Note systematic error in west-east gradient
Above Coupled model systematic error in
equatorial SST simulation
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2. Why do we need AMMA?

• 2.2 The societal need for improved predictions of
  Atlantic hurricane activity
• The WAM impacts TC activity on daily-to-interannua
  l timescales
• At interannual timescales WAM rainfall
  variability impacts major hurricane activity more
  strongly than ENSO (Goldenberg and Shapiro, 1996)

• A majority of tropical cyclones form from
  African weather systems but which one?

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2. Why do we need AMMA?
2.3 The WAM system is an ideal laboratory to
study scale interactions in monsoons
NDVI image for 21-31 August 2000, from Pathfinder
AVHRR, highlighting the marked meridional
gradients in surface conditions over tropical
North Africa and zonal symmetry.
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2. Why do we need AMMA?
2.3 The WAM system is an ideal laboratory to
study scale interactions in monsoons
African Easterly Jet (AEJ)
Zonal Wind at 600hPa for 21-31 August 2000
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2. Why do we need AMMA?
2.3 The WAM system is an ideal laboratory to
study scale interactions in monsoons
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2. Why do we need AMMA?
2.4 North Africa is the worlds major source of
mineral dust aerosol
Dust outbreak along the coast of West Africa, 16
June 1999. A SeaWiFS image shows a large dust
outbreak passing over Dakar (on the peninsula
projecting from the coast) and extending in a
broad arc over the Cape Verde Islands. Dust is
also seen blowing from sources along the coast of
Mauritania north of Dakar. The inset is a TOMS
Absorbing Aerosol Product image on the same day.
The TOMS product has an advantage over SeaWiFS in
that it shows the distribution of dust over land
thereby serving as a useful tool for identifying
dust sources and transport paths.
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A Proposal for US Participation in the African
Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA)
Project
Prepared by the US-AMMA SSG December 2003
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US-AMMA SSG
Chris Thorncroft (State University of New York
Albany), Co-Chair Peter Lamb (University of
Oklahoma), Co-Chair James Carton (University of
Maryland) Silvia L. Garzoli (NOAA/Atlantic
Oceanographic and Meteorological
Laboratory) Robert Houze (University of
Washington) Barry Huebert (University of
Hawaii) Gregory Jenkins (Pennsylvania State
University) Frank Marks (NOAA/ Atlantic
Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) Bob
Molinari (NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and
Meteorological Laboratory) Joseph Prospero
(University of Miami) Steven Rutledge (Colorado
State University) Brad Smull (University of
Washington) Peter Webster (Georgia Tech.) Chidong
Zhang (University of Miami)  
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3. US-Science Overview and Objectives
The US proposal to participate in AMMA emphasizes
contributions to research on climate, weather and
related aerosol issues. The US SSG continues to
promote the US contribution to AMMA. Not all
components will take place in 2006.
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3. Science Overview and Objectives
Key features of the West African Monsoon Climate
System during Boreal summer
Heat Low
SAL
AEJ
ITCZ
Cold Tongue
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3. US-Science Overview and Objectives
North-South Section along the Greenwich Meridian
AEJ
50oC
90oC
?
?e
?
?e
20oC
60oC
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US AMMA
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3. US-Science Overview and Objectives
North-South Section along 20o-30oW showing the
marine ITCZ
AEJ
50oC
90oC
?
?e
?e
?
20oC
60oC
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Tropical Atlantic Climate System
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3. US-Science Overview and Objectives
3.1 Climate System and Processes To improve
our understanding of key physical and dynamical
processes that determine the WAM seasonal
cycle the seasonal evolution of the cold
tongue-ITCZ-WAM system the seasonal evolution
of the heat low-AEJ-ITCZ system the differences
between the ITCZ over the continent and
ocean the impacts of the WAM on tropical
Atlantic climate   To improve our
understanding of the role these processes and the
dominant SST modes play in determining the
interannual variability of the WAM
This is being developed in collaboration with
the Atlantic Marine ITCZ (AMI) project - Science
Plan in Preparation Due at end of Summer 2004
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3. US-Science Overview and Objectives
Key weather systems in the West African and
Tropical Atlantic regions
SAL
AEWs
TC
MCSs
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3. US-Science Overview and Objectives
3.2 Weather Systems and Processes
African Easterly Wave trough
Peak rainfall ahead of trough
2-3,000km Wavelength
Our knowledge of African easterly waves (AEWs) is
dominated by GATE composites (e.g. Reed et al.
1977) These composites do not help us to
understand the interactions between AEWs and
convection and in particular the ubiquitous
mesoscale convective systems (MCSs)
11-12oN
Relative Vorticity 700hPa (10-5s-1)
Average precipitation rate (mm/day)
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3. US-Science Overview and Objectives
3.2 Weather Systems and Processes
TRMM based MCS climatology over Africa and
tropical Atlantic for June-July-August
Rainfall
Stratiform Rain Fraction
Percentage of MCSs with significant ice scattering
Average Lightning flash density
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An intense AEW that became Alberto 2000

• Water Vapour channel shows coherent westward
  propagating region of convection.
• Begins over elevated terrain of Darfur (Sudan)
• Undergoes a series of growth and decay cycles.
• Becomes associated with TS (later Hurricane)
  Alberto over Atlantic ocean.

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Mean State 16th July 15th August 2000.
925hPa q
315K PV

• PV strip present on the cyclonic shear side of
  AEJ.

• Strong baroclinic zone 10o-20oN

925hPa qe

• High qe strip exists near 15oN

Mean State supports Baroclinic waves and MCSs!
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315K (650hPa) PV (Shaded), 925hPa q anomaly
(contour), 925hPa Wind vectors.
1/8/00 00UTC
(((((((())))))))

• PV structure very different to mean meandering
  strip with embedded PV maxima.

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315K (650hPa) PV (Shaded), 925hPa q anomaly
(contour), 925hPa Wind vectors.
1/8/00 12UTC
(((((())))))

• System retains baroclinic growth configuration,
  PV maxima intensified by convection, 925hPa
  cyclonic flow strengthens.

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315K (650hPa) PV (Shaded), 925hPa q anomaly
(contour), 925hPa Wind vectors.
2/8/00 00UTC
(((((()))))))

• 7K q anomaly, with strong (nearly 20ms-1) 925hPa
  circulation.
• PV generated over Guinea highlands.

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315K (650hPa) PV (Shaded), 925hPa q anomaly
(contour), 925hPa Wind vectors.
2/8/00 12UTC
((((((((()))))))))

• Disintegration of baroclinic structure.
• Interaction between system PV and Guinea
  Highlands PV.

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315K (650hPa) PV (Shaded), 925hPa q anomaly
(contour), 925hPa Wind vectors.
3/8/00 00UTC
(((((((())))))))

• Merger of PV maxima establishes a 925hPa
  circulation.
• q anomaly moves to North and West.

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315K (650hPa) PV (Shaded), 925hPa q anomaly
(contour), 925hPa Wind vectors.
3/8/00 12UTC
((((()))))

• Further development of PV maxima gives a strong
  vortex with significant circulation at 925hPa
  (22ms-1 on East side).

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What is the variability of the storm tracks?
1989 High activity in MDR
1994 Low activity in MDR
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3. US-Science Overview and Objectives
3.2 Weather Systems and Processes
GOES SAL tracking imagery time series showing
Hurricane Erins interaction with the dry, hot,
aerosol-laden Saharan Air Layer (SAL).
Courtesy Jason Dunion
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G-IV Mission 030913n (Isabel)
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NOAA G-IV GPS Sonde Composites Hurricanes Fabian
and Isabel
Non-SAL 87 sondes
SAL 26 sondes
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3. US-Science Overview and Objectives
3.2 Weather Systems and Processes Improve our
understanding of the processes that influence the
relationship between African easterly waves and
convection Quantify the impact of MCSs on the
large-scale WAM Determine the relative roles
of dynamics and aerosols on MCSs and
lightning. Characterize the differences
between continental and oceanic MCSs and assess
the consequences of this for large scales Gain
a better understanding of the processes that
influence the fate of AEWs and embedded MCSs
downstream of West Africa Assess the role of
the SAL on tropical cyclone intensity
change. AMMA is working with THORPEX on this
aspect of AMMA
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3. US-Science Overview and Objectives
3.3 Aerosol Processes
Radiatively equivalent aerosol thickness (EAOT)
over the oceans derived from NOAA AVHRR
satellites. Mean EAOT for June-August, 1989-91.
From Husar et al, 1997.
There is a need to improve our knowledge of the
physical, chemical and radiative properties of
aerosol and their temporal and spatial
variability, key for providing a quantitative
assessment of their climate impact. The West
African and tropical Atlantic regions are ideal
to carry out these studies
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3. US-Science Overview and Objectives
3.3 Aerosol Processes
The impact of the SAL on weather and climate is
a key theme of AMMA. In addition to the roles
played by low humidity and vertical shear, the
role of aerosol will be investigated.
Three-dimensional conceptual model of the Saharan
Air Layer looking westward. (after Karyumpudi et
al, 1999)
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3. US-Science Overview and Objectives
3.3 Aerosol Processes Establish the
relationships between the chemical, radiative and
cloud-nucleating properties of aerosols
Assess the impact of aerosols on weather and
climate over West Africa and the tropical
Atlantic Characterize the effect of the WAM on
aerosol sources, transport and removal.
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4. Multi-Year Observations (LOP/EOP)
Continental Observations (provided by Africans
and Europeans)
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Planned Soundings Network for EOP
(05-07) March-October
AMMA-Soundings WG has been formed working to
establish ideal network for EOP will be
achieved through national and EU funding and
working with WMO
8-10 Surface flux stations will be located on
climate transect provided by Europeans
The CATCH region and mesoscale sites
RadioSoundings on GTS
RadioSounding not on GTS
Planned Enhancements to current network
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4. Multi-Year Observations (LOP/EOP)
Atlantic Observations
Long-term monitoring of tropical Atlantic is
expected to be maintained for the duration of
AMMA Extension to sustained oceanic
observations is proposed in the extratropics to
explore effects of tropical-extratropical
interactions on tropical SSTs
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5. Special Observing Period (2006)
pre-SOP-1 and SOP-1 (April 15 June 30)
Emphasis will be on Seasonal evolution of the
cold tongue-ITCZ-WAM system Seasonal evolution
of the heat low-AEJ-ITCZ system
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OVERVIEW OF SOP-1 (APRIL 15 JUNE 30)
Climate Transect enhanced soundings and surface
observations
ATR with dropsondes
o o o o
o o o o
o o o o
o o o o
o o o o
o o o o
o o o o
EGEE CRUISES
o o o o
AMMA Surface Flux mooring
Surface drifters
CMM array
Lagrangian floats
ATLAS moorings
ADCP mooring
Ron Brown Section SOP-I
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OVERVIEW OF SOP-1 (APRIL 15 JUNE 30)
Climate Transect enhanced soundings and surface
observations
Airplane dropsondes AMI-2007
ATR with dropsondes
o o o o
o o o o
o o o o
o o o o
o o o o
o o o o
o o o o
EGEE CRUISES
o o o o
AMMA Surface Flux mooring
Surface drifters
CMM array
Lagrangian floats
ATLAS moorings
ADCP mooring
Ron Brown Section SOP-I
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5. Special Observing Period (2006)
SOP-2-3 (July 1 September 15)
During SOP-2/3 emphasis will be on weather
systems and their interactions with the
large-scale environment over the continent and
ocean including the key MCS-AEW interactions over
the continent and their interactions with
tropical cyclones downstream. In collaboration
with NASA (ASHE) and NOAA HRD in the US and
THORPEX.
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Observing Strategy Over the Continent
NRL P3 and NOAA P3 Targeted Missions Solid-to
extend ground based radar coverage.
Surface-based research radars
Climate Transect
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Soundings provided by US for AMMA (S-Pol in
Niamey)
GAO
NIAMEY
OUAGADOUGOU
TAHOUA
PARAKOU
TAMALE
MINNA
COTONOU
Fig. 5.4
The CATCH region and mesoscale sites
RadioSoundings on GTS
RadioSounding not on GTS
Integrated Sounding Units (US)
Sites with enhanced soundings (Fr, Ge, UK, US)
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Soundingnetwork
Primary Doppler A/C operations
Extended Doppleraircraft zone
Supported by French and UK Aircraft with
dropsondes
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NOAA and NRL P3s will be coordinated to observe
the complete structure of the MCSs -
including stratiform and convective regions and
mesoscale vortices.
60
Observing Strategy Over the Continent
NRL P3 and NOAA P3 Targeted Missions Solid-to
extend ground based radar coverage.
Surface-based research radars
Climate Transect
61
Tracking MCSs from Niamey to the coast
NRL P3 and NOAA P3 Targeted Missions Solid-to
extend ground based radar coverage. Dashed to
track MCSs toward coast
Surface-based research radars
Climate Transect
62
Targeting African Seedings (NASA)
NRL P3 and NOAA P3 Targeted Missions Solid-to
extend ground based radar coverage. Dashed to
track MCSs toward coast
NASA (ASHE) Targeted Missions with Aerosondes
Surface-based research radars
Climate Transect
63
NASA PROPOSES AFRICAN SEEDLINGS HURRICANE
EXPERIMENT (ASHE) Greg Holland, Joanne Simpson,
Peter Webster
Global Hawk 20km, Dropsondes, EDOP, microwave SST
NASA
NPOL
Conakry?
Aerosondes Boundary Layer, 100 m, structure,
fluxes
64
Targeting African Seedings (NASA)
NRL P3 and NOAA P3 Targeted Missions Solid-to
extend ground based radar coverage. Dashed to
track MCSs toward coast
NASA (ASHE) Targeted Missions with Aerosondes
Surface-based research radars
Climate Transect
65
Targeting tropical systems in the West Atlantic
(NOAA)
NRL P3 and NOAA P3 Targeted Missions Solid-to
extend ground based radar coverage. Dashed to
track MCSs toward coast
NOAA P3s and G-IV Targeted Missions and Dropsonde
flights with G-IV
NASA (ASHE) Targeted Missions with Aerosondes
Surface-based research radars
Climate Transect
66
DRIFTSONDE FOR SYNOPTIC COVERAGE (THORPEX)
NRL P3 and NOAA P3 Targeted Missions Solid-to
extend ground based radar coverage. Dashed to
track MCSs toward coast
NOAA P3s and G-IV Targeted Missions and Dropsonde
flights with G-IV
NASA (ASHE) Targeted Missions with Aerosondes
Surface-based research radars
Climate Transect
67
Coordination of Aerosol measurements
NRL P3 and NOAA P3 Targeted Missions Solid-to
extend ground based radar coverage. Dashed to
track MCSs toward coast
NOAA P3s and G-IV Targeted Missions and Dropsonde
flights with G-IV
NASA (ASHE) Targeted Missions with Aerosondes
C130 Aerosol Flights 06/07?
Surface-based research radars
Climate Transect
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AMMA FINAL COMMENTS

• The AMMA program is a remarkable international
  effort that provides unprecedented opportunities.
  In addition to addressing the key science issues
  outlined above the enhanced observations will
  support
• Evaluation of model analyses and predictions
• Evaluation of operational network over West
  Africa and the tropical Atlantic supporting
  recommendations for future monitoring strategies
• Evaluation of satellites
• Evaluation of the interactions between Africa and
  the Americas
  

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Temp, Synop and Airep, 28th Aug
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• Soundings Significant negative impact despite
  sparse network

71

• Soundings are important far upstream

72

• Removing SYNOP P and Q actually improves Analysis!

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• Satellite Small Negative Impact