Populations

1
Populations

• Chapter 24
• http//blue.census.gov/ipc/www/clock.html

2
Human Population

• We have seen factors that influence the growth of
  populations in general.
• Next we will apply some of these to the human
  population.

3
Fig. 24.22 Exponential growth in the human
population
4
G r x N World Population 2002

• N 6,228,394,430
• r 1.18
• G 73,915,261
• http//www.census.gov/ipc/www/world.html

5
Changes in birthrates and death rates in Sri Lanka
Births - Deaths r
6
World Population Events

• Time unit Births Deaths Growth
• -------------------------------------------------
• Year 131,571,719 55,001,289 76,570,430
  
• Month 10,964,310 4,583,441 6,380,869
  
• Day 360,470 150,688 209,782
  
• Hour 15,020 6,279 8,741
  
• Minute 250 105 146
  
• Second 4.2 1.7 2.4
  
• -------------------------------------------------

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Fig. 24.25
8
Examine the population demographics of these
countries.

• Sweden
• Mexico
• United States
• Determine G, N and r
• http//www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbsum.html

9
Age structures of three nations
Shrinking
Growing
Stable
Are these growing, shrinking or stable
populations?
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Your assignment

• Create a single powerpoint slide containing
• Data on your assigned variable for France,
  Tanzania and the United States (be sure to
  include units).
• Explain the impact of curing heart disease and
  malaria on your variable OR -
• Explain the impact of population changes
  predicted for 2050 your variable.
• The name of your group members.
• Go to D2L and put them in the drop box.

12
Pop. Pyramid http//www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.
html N, r, and G http//www.census.gov/ipc/www/id
bsum.html

• Variable Predict
• N, r, and G Impact of curing malaria and heart
  disease on variable
• Life expectancy Impact of curing malaria and
  heart disease on variable
• Kids/woman Impact of curing malaria and heart
  disease on variable
• Infant Mortality Impact of curing malaria and
  heart disease on variable
• Adult Mortality Impact of curing malaria and
  heart disease on variable
• Immigration Emigration Impact of curing malaria
  and heart disease on variable
• Ecological footprint Change of variable in 2050
  vs. today
• Water supply amt./quality Change of variable in
  2050 vs. today
• Population density Change of variable in 2050 vs.
  today
• Land use Change of variable in 2050 vs. today
• Wildness Change of variable in 2050 vs. today

13
Heart Disease is the leading cause of death in
developed countries.

• 50 of all deaths in US and Europe, typically gt50
  years old.
• Caused by obesity, poor diet, lack of exercise,
  diabetes, and genetic factors.

Clot in Coronary Artery
14
Malaria kills 2-3 million humans annually (90 of
malaria deaths are in Subsaharan Africa) Caused
by Plasmodium parasite and transmitted by
mosquito Affects primarily children under age of
five and pregnant women (Malaria kills an African
child every 30 sec)
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Example Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France,
and United States Source US Census
Bureau By I.M. Smart M.E. Too
Tanzania France USA
Life Expectancy 65 yrs 75 yrs 70 yrs
Curing Malaria No impact Increase Decrease
Curing Heart Disease Increase Decrease No impact
NOTE, THESE ARE NOT CORRECT ANSWERS, JUST EXAMPLES
16
Next class period we will

• Present your slides in class and use them for
  discussion.
• Discuss the impact of curing heart disease and
  malaria on some of these variables.
• Discuss the impact of population changes
  predicted for 2050 on the other variables.
• This is worth 5 points on the final exam.

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Fig. 24.25
19
Age structures of three nations
Shrinking
Growing
Stable
Are these growing, shrinking or stable
populations?
20
Heart Disease is the leading cause of death in
developed countries.

• 50 of all deaths in US and Europe, typically gt50
  years old.
• Caused by obesity, poor diet, lack of exercise,
  diabetes, and genetic factors.

Clot in Coronary Artery
21
Malaria kills 2-3 million humans annually (90 of
malaria deaths are in Subsaharan Africa) Caused
by Plasmodium parasite and transmitted by
mosquito Affects primarily children under age of
five and pregnant women (Malaria kills an African
child every 30 sec)
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Examine the data you collected
24

X
Tanzania France USA
N 36,071,000 60,424,000 293,028,000
r Births/1000 population41 Deaths/1000 population18 R23/1000 people Births/1000 population13 Deaths/1000 population9 R4/1000 people Births/1000 population14 Deaths/1000 population9 R5/1000 people
G 2000-2010 growth rate will be 2.0 2000-2010 growth rate will be 0.4 2000-2010 growth rate will be 0.9
Curing Malaria The population would increase Malaria is common in underdeveloped countries No impact Malaria isnt common in developed countries No impact Malaria isnt common in developed countries
Curing Heart Disease No Impact Heart Disease effects mainly developed countries Would increase the population of adults Heart Disease effects mainly developed countries Would increase the population of adults Heart Disease effects mainly developed countries
By Tiffany Tyson, Chantelle Pelzer, and Emily
Brickert
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N, r, and G for Tanzania, France, and United
States Source US Census Bureau By David
Feivor Tim Molinarolo Chelsea Enger Nathan Tock
Tanzania France USA
N (Total Population) 36,071,000 60,424,000 293,028,000
R (Growth Rate) 1.1 -0.3 0.7
G (Change In) 396,781 (181,272) 2,051,196
Curing Malaria Increase N, r, and G No Impact No Impact
Curing Heart Disease Increase N, r, and G Increase N, r, and G Increase N, r, and G
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G, r and N for Tanzania, France, and United
States Source US Census Bureau By Mike Loeff
ler Pete Johnson
Tanzania France USA
G r N 864,000 2.4 36 MIL 300,000 0.5 60 MIL 2.93 MIL 1.0 293 MIL
Curing Malaria Increase No Impact No Impact
Curing Heart Disease No Impact Increase Increase
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2
If a cure for Malaria and heart disease are
found, then the populations will increase, and
life expectancy will also increase.
By Brittany Conant, Claire Knoble, Wren Walker
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Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United
States Effects of Curing Malaria and Heart
Disease
Tanzania France USA
Life Expectancy 44 yrs 78.8 yrs 76.6 yrs.
Curing Malaria Increase No Impact No Impact
Curing Heart Disease No Impact Increase Increase
By Andrea Fox, Brett Gullicksrud, Rachel
Knutson, Katie Penniston, Pangdra Vang Source US
Census Bureau
29
Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United
States Source US Census Bureau By Carrie
Dietz Kristin Minter Jenn Moulton Cassie
Huettl Ryan Meighan
Tanzania France USA
Life Expectancy 44.1 yrs 78.8 yrs 76.6 yrs
Curing Malaria Increase Increase No Impact
Curing Heart Disease Increase Increase Increase
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Fertility Rate Per WomanSource US Census Bureau

• No impact for curing heart disease because the
  women are above childbearing age.
• No impact for curing malaria in the USA or France
  because they are developed countries.
• Increase in Tanzania because less children will
  be dying and pregnant women will have fewer
  complications.
• By Sara Schlough, Kristine Tresemer, Abby
  Biesterveld

USA France Tanzania
Fertility Rate per woman 2000 2025 2.1 2.2kids/woman 2000 2025 1.9 1.8 kids/woman 2000 2025 5.5 3.4 kids/woman
Curing Malaria NO IMPACT NO IMPACT INCREASE
Curing Heart Disease NO IMPACT NO IMPACT NO IMPACT
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Population of women/children for Tanzania,
France, and United States in the year 2000
Source US Census Bureau By Brittany
Montgomery And Brittany Shipman
Tanzania France USA
Women/ Children 7,464/ 18,624 23,076/ 15,066 104,477/ 80,559
Curing Malaria Increase No Impact No Impact
Curing Heart Disease No Impact Increase Increase
32
Infant Mortality for Tanzania, France, and United
States Source US Census Bureau By Katie
McNeely, Elissa Bauer, Amy Calhoun, Nick
Cerwin, Becca Long
Tanzania France USA
Infant Mortality 112 (male)/ 92 (female) per 1000 5(male)/ 4(female) per 1000 9 (male)/ 7 (female) per 1000
Curing Malaria Decrease Mortality Decrease Decrease
Curing Heart Disease No Impact No Impact No impact
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Infant Mortality for Tanzania, France, and
United States Sources US Census Bureau
World Health Organization
By Emily Noel, Christine Benzschawel, Karin
Mueller
Tanzania France USA
Infant Mortality 109 per 1000 5 per 1000 7 per 1000
Curing Malaria Decrease No impact No impact
Curing Heart Disease No impact No impact No impact
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4. Infant Mortality Rate for Tanzania, France,
and United States Source US Census Bureau and
MamasHealth.comBy Jackie Henry and Lindsie Miller
Tanzania France USA
Infant Mortality Rate per 1000 births 109 deaths 5 deaths 7 deaths
Curing Malaria Decrease No Impact No Impact
Curing Heart Disease Decrease No Impact Decrease
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Adult Mortality
Source US Census Bureau
France Tanzania USA
Adult Mortality (m/f per 1000) 133/60 561/512 140/83
Curing Malaria No Impact No Impact No Impact
Curing Heart Diseases Decrease No Impact Decrease
By Katie Kratz, Sara Wanless, Marie Fouts
36
Adult Mortality for Tanzania, France, USA Source
US Census Bureau
By Casy Dunphy Meghan Jablonski
Tanzania France USA
Adult Mortality 561-M 512-F 133-M 60-F 140-M 83-F
Curing Malaria Subtle impact Subtle impact Subtle impact
Curing Heart Disease Decrease Decrease Decrease
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Adult Mortality
France
Tanzania
USA
N 60,424,000 ppl R 0.5 growth G RN 302,120 ppl N 33,065,000 ppl R 2.4 growth G RN 704,000 ppl N 293,028,000 ppl R 1.0 growth G RN 2,930,000 ppl
Info not available on the WHO website, but the death rate is 18 per thousand in the population Males 140 per 1000 Females 83 per thousand
Will not have a large effect on adult mortality because malaria primarily effects kids Will slightly lower adult mortality because malaria is prevalent in subsaharan Africa Will not have a large effect on adult mortality because malaria is not prevalent in the US
Will lower adult mortality because HD is the leading killer of adults in developed countries Will not significantly lower adult mortality because it is not a big killer of adults in Tanzania Will lower adult mortality because HD is the leading killer of adults in developed countries
N,R,G
Males 133 per 1000 Females 60 per 1000
Adult Mortality
Curing Malaria
Curing Heart Disease
Source US Census Bureau, World Health
Organization
By Pat Kelly, Andrea Keohane, and RAJ
38
Ecological Footprint

• United States ---------12.22 hectares per capita
• France-------------------7.27 hectares per capita
• Tanzania----------------1.02 hectares per capita
• 1.0 hectares 2.471 acres

As the population increases over the next 45
years, the concentration of people per hectare
will increase which results in a lower ecological
footprint per capita.
By Andrew Trawinski and Sam Callan
39
Source Nationmaster.com
Burma France Canada
Water Availability 21,898 cubic meters 3,349 cubic meters 94,353 cubic meters
Population Changes Increase Decrease Decrease
Water Availability for Tanzania, France, and
United States
By Kristina Hertel and Vanessa Keller
40
Water Supply Amount/Quality for Tanzania, France,
and the United States
Source nationmaster.com
Tanzania France United States
Water Supply Amount (in cubic meters) 3.64 thousand cubic meters 3.26 thousand cubic meters 7.09 thousand cubic meters
Freshwater pollution (in tons per cubic km) N/A 2.49 tons per cubic km 1.14 tons per cubic km
Population from present time to 2050 Increases Increases Increases
The increasing populations of France, Tanzania,
and the United States in 2050 will cause the
water supply to decrease and the fresh water
pollution rate to increase.
Presentation created by Ryan Klein, Jackie
Rinzel, Kim Skuster, Krista Woolever, and Sarah
Kleman
41
Water Supply Amount and Quality for Tanzania,
France, and United States
Tanzania France USA
Water Supply Amount and Quality Today Water Availability 3.64 thousand cubic meters Freshwater Pollution 0.00 tons/cubic km Water Availability 3.26 thousand cubic meters Freshwater Pollution 2.49 tons/cubic km Water Availability 7.09 thousand cubic meters Freshwater Pollution 1.14 tons/cubic km
Water Supply Amount and Quality in 2050 Water Availability Decrease Freshwater Pollution Increase POPULATION PREDICTED TO DOUBLE BY 2050 Water Availability Same Freshwater Pollution Increase POPULATION PREDICTED SAME SIZE AS NOW Water Availability Decrease Freshwater Pollution Increase POPULATION PREDICTED TO BE 1.5 TIMES LARGER
Sources www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/env_eco_foo
int-1 US Census Bureau By Dena Shefelbine,
Scott Szukalski, Klarissa Czys, Whitney Miller,
Erik Haworth
42
Population Density for Tanzania, France, and
United States Source US Census Bureau
International Data Base By
Brian Peters, Alexa Jaime
In persons / sq. km. Tanzania France USA
Today 40.7 110.7 32
2050 81.2 111.8 45.8
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Population densities for France, Tanzania, and
U.S. Source www. Census.gov/ipc/wwwidbagg.html
(001 density)
France Tanzania U.S.
Population Today Density (persons per sq. km.) 60,424,213 110.7 36,071,799 40.7 293,028,571 32.0
Population 2050 Density (persons per sq. km.) 61,017,122 111.8 71,949,135 81.2 420,081,587 45.8
Impact Increase Increase Increase
Christina Berggren, Jordan Hauser, and Michelle
Huhn
44
Population Density for United States, France and
Tanzania Source U.S. Census Brureau
United States France Tanzania
Population 2004 293,027,571 60,424,213 36,070,799
Population 2050 420,080,587 61,017,122 71,949,135
Population Density Increase Increase Slightly Increase
Crystal Svoboda, Amanda Zellner, Tony Caauwe,
Natosha Hoffmann
45
Land Use
Land Use percent of total land area available
for cultivated crops (arable land), permanent
crops (Permanent), and other areas (Other) such
as prairies, pastures, forests, and built-on
lands. It is predicted that the population in
Tanzania and the United States will almost
double, while the growth rate of France is not
nearly as high.
Country Type of Land Percent of land () Prediction for 2050
Tanzania Arable 4.52 Increase
Permanent 1.08 Decrease
Other 94.4 Increase
United States Arable 19.13 Decrease
Permanent 0.22 No Impact
Other 80.65 Increase
France Arable 33.53 Decrease
Permanent 2.07 Decrease
Other 64.4 Increase
By Breann Sommer, Jens Hogberg, Lindsay Tietz,
James Bodah
46
Wildness for Tanzania, France, and United States
Wildness Tanzania France USA
Today 9.30 0.04 35.89
2050 Decrease substantially Decrease Slightly Decrease
Tanzania will decrease because they are
still a developing country. France will decrease
slightly because they have used up most of their
unprotected land. The USA will decrease because
of our increasing population. Not all of the
land will be used because the United States has
one of the largest masses of preserved land. All
of the countries will decrease in wildness
because the world population has not reached its
carrying capacity.
By Amy Yoel, Megan Brisch, Alison Smetana, Ethan
Lor
Source www.nationmaster.com
47
11 WildnessMichelle TentisMegan
BrennanRachael Stanze
United States France Tanzania
Wildness 35.89 .04 9.3
Current Population 290,342,554 60,180,529 35,922,454
Growth Rate .92 .42 1.72
Effect of Pop. On Wildness in 2050 Because the growth rate is positive in all three countries, the wildness will be depleted as a result of necessary expansion. Because the growth rate is positive in all three countries, the wildness will be depleted as a result of necessary expansion. Because the growth rate is positive in all three countries, the wildness will be depleted as a result of necessary expansion.
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Examine the data you collected

• For each variable, determine the impact of curing
  malaria and heart disease on that variable.

49
In developed countries, what happens if we cure
heart disease?

• Population
• Consumption
• Quality of life

No significant increase
Increase
Increases life expectancy, but will also
increase heath costs and drain on resources
50
In developing countries, what happens if we cure
malaria?

• Population
• Consumption
• Quality of life

Significant increase
Increase
Increases life expectancy, but will also
dramatically increase use of already scarce
resources
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Impact of Disease on Population

• Which would have a greater impact on world
  population, curing heart disease or curing
  malaria?

MALARIA
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Parasitologists Dilemma

• What happens if we dont cure malaria?
• What happens if we do cure malaria?
• What could you do to keep population growth low,
  while still curing malaria?

Death rate stays high, population growth is
suppressed
Death rate drops, population grows more rapidly
53
What could you do to keep population growth low,
while still curing malaria?

•  Decrease fertility rate per woman
• Less developed countries 3.05
• More developed countries 1.57
• Spread out the generations
• Start having children at age 30 vs. 15
• Birth-control
• Abstinence, contraception, sterilization
• Other
• Education of women, affluence (wealth)

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Why do we want to keep population growth low?

• In many poor countries resources are already
  scarce.
• Tanzania lt 2,000 calories per day
• France, USA gt3,200 calories per day
• If population increases, available food per
  person decreases.
• This leads to increased pressure on the
  environment and ecosystems around the world

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Is there a correlation between consumption and
quality of life?
France Tanzania USA
Consumption
Quality of Life
France Tanzania USA
Consumption Average Low High
Quality of Life Highest Low High
58
Is the current level of consumption in the US
sustainable?
Tanzania France USA
Footprint (ha/person) 1.0 7.3 12.2
Actual resources (ha/person) 0.6 7.4 8.0
Net Difference -0.4 0.1 -4.2

• No, we must import a third of our resources.

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Impact of consumption on the environment

• Consumption by the average American
• The US uses 250-300 liters of water/person/day
• for drinking, cooking, bathing, sanitation, and
  watering yards (the minimum amount needed for
  those things MINUS the yard watering is 50
  liters/person/day).
• In contrast, a country like Tanzania uses less
  than 5 liters of water/person/day.
• The average American consumed over 200 pounds of
  red meat, poultry, and fish in 2000.
• The average coffee drinker in the United States
  drinks 3.1 cups of coffee/day.

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Impact of consumption on the environment

• Consumption by the average American
• In 2001, the average American produced 4.4 pounds
  of garbage waste per day
• (product packaging, clothes, food scraps,
  bottles, grass clippings, etc., before
  recycling).
• Compare this to 2.7 pounds of garbage
  waste/person/day in 1960.
• About 91,286 million liters of soda are
  consumed/year. This is over 300
  liters/person/year!
• In 2001, the United States used 341.8 million
  Btus of energy/person and emitted 5.5 metric tons
  of carbon/person.
• In the same year, France used 177.8 million
  Btus/person and emitted only 1.8 metric tons of
  carbon.

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What is the impact of consumption on the
environment?

• To make a single 2 gram computer chip requires
• 1.6 liters of fossil fuel
• 72 grams of chemicals
• 32 kilograms (8 gallons) of water

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What is the impact of consumption on the
environment?(compare Tanzania with France/USA)
Tanzania France USA
Pesticide use (kg/hectare) 600 3000 1600
Fertilizer use (kg/hectare) 7 263 112
SO4 produced (tons/km2) 100 1000 1600
Water pollution (tons/km3) 0.1 2.5 1.1
Wilderness remaining 9.3 0.04 36
Ecological footprint 1 7.3 12.2
65
What is the impact of population density on the
environment? (compare France with the USA)
Tanzania France USA
Pesticide use (kg/hectare) 600 3000 1600
Fertilizer use (kg/hectare) 7 263 112
SO4 produced (tons/km2) 100 1000 1600
Water pollution (tons/km3) 0.1 2.5 1.1
Wilderness remaining 9.3 0.04 36
Population Density (people/km2) 40 110 31
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Parasitologists Dilemma

• Should we try to cure malaria?
• Given your answer, are there other actions we
  should take at the same time?

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Is there hope?
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What type of growth is this?
Logistic
N
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What determines K for humans?

• Adapt our environment to meet our needs rather
  than adapt to our environment.
• Predation
• Only ourselves
• Parasites
• Sanitation
• Medications
• Competition
• Mass extinctions

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What is K for humans?
71
K 1010 people?
Is this sustainable?
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r
73
G
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Feeding the world

• Worlds farmers have doubled the food supply
  since 1973
• Miracle wheat seeds and high yielding rice
• Irrigation
• Fertilizers and pesticides
• Genetically modified crops
• Actually have more food/person than in 1973

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Agricultural Production per Person has remained
relatively constant
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Top 5 countries by population (2003)

• 1 China 1,286,975,468
• 2 India 1,049,700,118
• 3 United States 290,342,554
• 4 Indonesia 234,893,453
• 5 Brazil 182,032,604

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Population x Consumption Environmental Impact
Population Consumption (hect/person) Impact (hectares)
China 1,286,975,468 1.8 2,316,555,842
India 1,049,700,118 1.0 1,049,700,118
United States 290,342,554 12.7 3,687,350,436
Indonesia 234,893,453 1.5 352,340,180
Brazil 182,032,604 2.6 473,284,770
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Sustainable DevelopmentLand Used lt Land
Available
Impact (hectares) Available (hectares) Difference (hectares)
China 2,316,555,842 1,544,370,562 -772,185,281
India 1,049,700,118 656,062,574 -393,637,544
United States 3,687,350,436 2,322,740,432 -1,364,610,004
Indonesia 352,340,180 610,722,978 258,382,798
Brazil 473,284,770 1,019,382,582 546,097,812
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Ecological impact

• Impact population X consumption
• Americans consume more per capita than anyone
  else on earth.
• It would take 3.28 billion Indians to consume
  what 290 million Americans do.

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Sustainable development

• A balance between population and consumption
  within the limits imposed by nature
• Need to achieve sustainability
• Reduction in pop growth in developing nations
• Reduction in consumption in developed nations

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The End
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• Population pyramids
• for Tanzania
• 2000
• 2025
• 2050

84

• Population pyramids
• for France
• 2000
• 2025
• 2050

85

• Population pyramids
• for United States
• 2000
• 2025
• 2050

86
General Pop. Stats. Tanzania France USA
Pop. (in millions) 36.0 59.5 285.9
Infant Mortality (death/1000 live births) 104 5 8
Fertility rate 5.5 1.7 2.0
Life Expectancy _at_ birth 46 72 76
Child mortality (per 1000) 159 5 8
Adult mortality (per 1000) 526 97 113
Health expenditure/ capita (Intl. ) 36 2,335 4,499
87
Growth (Gr x N) Tanzania France USA
r () 2.9 0.4 1.1
N 35,964,000 59,452,000 285,925,000
G 1,042,956 237,808 3,145,175