Imagine ahead plan backwards: Prospective methodology in urban and regional planning'

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Imagine ahead - plan backwards Prospective
methodology in urban and regional planning.

• Elzbieta Krawczyk Professor John Ratcliffe
• The Futures Academy, Dublin Institute of
  Technology, Ireland

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Outline of the presentation

• Cities in the 21st century
• Challenges facing contemporary urban planning
• Weaknesses of plannings approach towards the
  future
• The Prospective methodology
• The process
• Mechanisms for collaboration and participation
• Interplay of different generations
• Conclusions

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Cities in the 21st century

• Home to a half of the worlds population.
• Cores of human activity and engines of economic
  growth.
• Extremely dynamic and complex, globally connected
  multidimensional systems.
• Struggling with a whole range of problems related
  to
• economic growth,
• social development,
• state of the natural environment,
• urban finances,
• and governance.

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Challenges facing contemporary urban planning

• Challenges posed by contemporary change.
• Competition between cities and urban regions.
• Sustainability agenda.
• Urban governance.
• Opportunities and threats arising from - social
  and cultural transformations,
• - demographic change and
• - accumulation of social and environmental
  problems.

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Weaknesses of plannings approach towards the
future

• Deficiency in dealing with complexity and the
  uncertainty of change.
• Limitations of projections as the main method
  supporting planning.
• Main focus on spatial form.
• Short-term orientation of planning.

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Weaknesses of plannings approach towards the
future (2)

• Lack of an integrated and holistic approach to
  urban systems.
• Lack of effective public participation and
  collaboration between stakeholders.
• Neglect of the visionary approach towards the
  future.

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The Prospective methodology

• It attempts to address an increasingly
  recognised need for a shift from the traditional
  planning mind-set to a more imaginative,
  innovative and inclusive future-oriented
  approach.
• Such an approach should reinforce an
  understanding that the future can be shaped and
  thus enable
• Communities
• To envision their desired future, building upon
  common values and wishes

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The Prospective methodology (2)

• Professionals
• To understand the complexity of urban systems and
  the global context within which they function
• To anticipate local and global change and its
  short, medium and long-term impacts
• To consider cities as entities and tackle their
  problems in an integrated manner
• To create images of possible and probable
  alternative futures
• To understand the needs and values of
  communities
• To develop mechanisms that would facilitate
  collaboration of all stakeholders in shaping the
  future
• To promote networking of actors and the building
  of a collective intelligence
• Community and professionals to work together in
  order to achieve this envisioned preferred future
  state.

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Prospective process
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Mechanisms for collaboration and participation

• The proposed mechanism for encouraging
  collaboration among the stakeholders
  concertation process.
• Examples of methods for facilitating public
  participation community forums, focus groups and
  consultation brochures.

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Concertation process

• Concertation, originated in France, could be
  described as a as a process, which facilitates
  the coherence between actors and partners
  viewpoints through the establishment of a social,
  political and/or administrative consensus(ENDA
  2004).
• Or as negotiation occurring in the public
  decision-making processes (de Carlo 2003).

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Concertation process (2)
Locally Involved Actors
Administration and public decision-makers
Power of authority
Power of function
Economic sector
Power of influence
Non-economic sector
Group A questionnaire workshops Group B
questionnaire (2 follow up phonecalls) Group C
questionnaire
Workshops 10 people from group A at each 334
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Methods for public participation

• Examples of methods for facilitating public
  participation
• - Community forum. It brings together community
  and voluntary groups. As a structured and
  recognised platform, it can facilitate dialogue
  between community organisations, local government
  and other stakeholders.
• Focus groups. Can bring together citizens,
  community organisations, stakeholders and experts
  in order to explore specific issues.
• Consultation brochures. Distributed among
  citizens can help to develop awareness about
  projects, encourage participation in them and
  gather valuable knowledge about community
  concerns, wishes, needs, perceptions and other.
  

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Interplay of different generations

• Considered from two different points of view
• General urban development and its consequences
  for future generations.
• (2) The role of different generations in shaping
  urban environments at present.

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Conclusions

• Recognition of the need for a new imaginative,
  innovative and inclusive future-oriented approach
  to urban planning.
• The need for a more effective collaboration
  between stakeholders and more active involvement
  of communities in shaping the future of cities.
• It is hoped that the Prospective methodology
  would assist stakeholders and community in doing
  so.

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Thank you for your attention! The Futures
Academy, Dublin, Irelandelzbieta.krawczyk_at_dit.ie
john.ratcliffe_at_dit.ie