What is a Quadrillion

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What is a Quadrillion?
Quadrillion BTU's
Tire Pressure
Efficiency
BTU's
Renewable Energy!
Peak Oil
Green House Gases
Terrawatt
Millions Barrels of Oil
Train Loads of Coal
CAFE
Zeta Joules
Megawatts
Billions of CuFt Nat Gas
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Understanding the Energy Crisis
Reality vs Promises (Science vs. Political
Science) Dr James Smiley
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How Much Energy Does The World Use?
Where Does it Come From?
What are our options for the Future?
Can Renewable Energy save us?
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Projected World Wide Energy Needs
What is this? How much is it?
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Lets Define New Unit of EnergyEnergyPower x
Time
1 Unit 1000 Megawatts of electric power for 1
yr A typical large power plant ABOUT 0.1
Quadrillion BTUs
2200 Megawatt thermal energy for one year 9
million Megawatt-hrs electricity 15 million
barrels of oil or 50 super tankers per yr 3
million tons of coal 36500 car loads per yr
(train/day) 90 billion cubic ft of Natural gas
per yr (1 cubic mile) 1 ton Uranium per yr
(about a 15x15x15 cube) Energy for about
300,000 People in US for a year
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World Wide Energy NeedsAll Energy-Not just
Electrical
7200 Units
Today- 5000 Units
Growth 2 100 units/yr
2 a week!
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World Energy Consumption by Source
5000 Total Units Today
Renewables Today! lt1
Approx Units 1900 1150 1300
300 300 50
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What about The United States Consumption?
Sources?Future Needs?We use about 1000 Units!
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Total Energy domestic/Imported
Understanding the Energy Crisis
300 units
30
30
1000 units used today Growth rate 2/year or
20 units
230 units
200 units
120 units
80 units
30 units ea
10 units (lt1)
Solar, Wind, bio-mass
Imported oil
Canada 19 Mexico S.Ara. 10/ea VenezuelaNig. 9
ea
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World Energy use by fuel type
Renewables 6 of total (hydro, wood,
included. Growing yes, but, Percent shrinking?
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Where is Crude Oil Consumed(USA)
Personal Cars(About 10 of total energy)
33 Trucking 20 Planes and
Ships 10 Chemical Products(over
4000) 12 Industrial Heat 10 Heat, Light,
Electric Power 8 Miscellaneous 7
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Products from Oil
  Nearly everything in our lives is made from
oil, made by machinery and systems dependent on
oil, and transported by oil Power.   Ammonia,
Anesthetics, Antihistamines, Artificial limbs,
Artificial Turf, Antiseptics, Aspirin, Auto
Parts, Awnings, Balloons, Ballpoint pens,
Bandages, Beach Umbrellas, Boats, Cameras,
Candles, Car Battery Cases, Carpets, Caulking,
Combs, Cortisones, Cosmetics, Crayons, Credit
Cards, Curtains, Deodorants, Detergents, Dice,
Disposable Diapers, Dolls, Dyes, Eye Glasses,
Electrical Wiring Insulation, Faucet Washers,
Fishing Rods, Fishing Line, Fishing Lures, Food
Preservatives, Food Packaging, Garden Hose, Glue,
Hair Coloring, Hair Curlers, Hand Lotion, Hearing
Aids, Heart Valves, Ink, Insect Repellant,
Insecticides, Linoleum, Lip Stick, Milk Jugs,
Nail Polish, Oil Filters, Panty Hose, Perfume,
Petroleum Jelly, Rubber Cement, Rubbing Alcohol, 
Shampoo, Shaving Cream, Shoes, Toothpaste, Trash
Bags, Upholstery, Vitamin Capsules, Water Pipes,
Yarn,  
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Greenhouse Gas Emission
GHGgCeq/kWh
Source Sokolov, IAEA, 2005
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Lets Look at Renewables!
Theyve been a goal for a long time!
They get a lot of political play its
politically correct! They would reduce Greenhouse
gases vs coal/oil They wont run out!
Can they eliminate dependence on foreign oil?
Can they save us?
15
Richard Nixons State of Union Address 1974
State of the Union (Who said it? When?) I urge
the energy measures that I have proposed be made
the first priority of this session of the
Congress. ..They will prevent the injustice of
windfall profits for a few as a result of the
sacrifices of the millions of Americans. This
must be the year in which we organize a
full-scale effort to provide for our energy needs
through the 21st century. Let this be our
national goal the United States will not be
dependent on any other country for the energy we
need .we plan to spend 10 billion in Federal
funds over the next 5 years. That is an enormous
amount. But during the same 5 years, private
enterprise will be investing as much as 200
billion-- and in 10 years, 500 billion--to
develop the new resources, the new technology,
the new capacity America will require for its
energy needs in the future.
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Jimmy Carter State of Union Address 1980
State of Union Address (Who said it? When?)
our country finally has a national energy
policy The windfall profits tax on crude oil has
been enacted, and a massive investment in the
production and development of alternative energy
sources Solar energy funding has been
quadrupled, solar energy tax credits enacted.
Ethanol production has been dramatically
increased, an amount that could enable ethanol
to meet the demand for 10 percent of all unleaded
gasoline ..it is essential that the Nation
reduce its dependence on imported fossil fuels
and complete the transition to reliance on
domestic renewable sources of energy, first
step towards widespread introduction of renewable
energy sources and established an ambitious
national goal for the year XXXX of obtaining 20
percent of this Nation's energy from solar and
renewable sources. As a result of these policies
and programs investments in renewable energy
sources have grown significantly.
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Renewable energy about 6 of Total
Solar Heat
Distribution of the 6
Wood stoves, etc
Ethanol
Wind farms (double this by 2008)
i.e. Niagara Falls, Hoover Dam, Bonneville Dam,
etc 58
i.e. Lock 7, NYSEG Mechanicville, etc
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Government Subsidies
Total 14.5 Billion in 2005!
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Why so little progress?
Energy Density is very low!
Its the ENTROPY!
For a successful technology, reality must take
precedence over public relations, for nature
cannot be fooled. Richard Feynman
One elephant and 100,000 mice have about the same
biomass. Which do you want to try to harness to
move a railcar? Its possible, but how practical?
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Area Required for one unit of power
Wind 3000 turbines 40-70 square miles Solar
Photovoltaic 40 square miles Bio Mass
Ethanol 6000 square miles Bio Mass Wood 12000
square miles Bio gas 800 million
chickens! Oil/Coal About 1 square
mile Nuclear 0.3 square miles
Saratoga County 844 sq miles Rhode Island 1000 sq
miles
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Options
How to replace Foreign oil 300 units (Plus 20
new units in demand per year)
Conservation (a must!-part of assumed growth of
only 2) Renewables (Solar, Wind, Ethanol, Hydro,
Geothermal, Bio-mass) Domestic Oil Natural
Gas Coal Nuclear
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Conservation Must be part of any plan

Some conservation in 2 growth Doing pretty good!
(Next chart) We need to do more! Cars about
90 units. 10 increase in CAFÉ saves 9 units
when all cars converted (10yrs) Reduce our
standard of living? Competitive economy requires
abundant energy World energy demand is growing!
(Without us!) Conserve yes, but cant save out of
the crisis!
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Energy Use and Cost
Population Growth
Flat, with
More Cars TVs Electronics Central air Computers
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Standard of Living vs Energy Use
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Electrical Energy Use vs Quality of Life
1.0
Japan
France
UK
80 of the worlds population is below 0.8 on the
UNs Human Development Index (HDI) Prosperity Educ
ation Life span
U.S.
Canada
Germany
Australia
Russia
China
0.6
India
Pakistan
0.3
4,000
8,000
12,000
Annual Electricity Use kWh/Capita
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Why growth in demand?
China, India, Brazil(CIB) 3 billion people United
States 300 million (1/10th)
China, India, Brazil 1200 kwh/capita USA
12000 kwh/capita
When CIB usage goes from 1200 to 2400 kwh/capita,
we would have to go 0 to keep world demand
constant!
CONCLUSION Conservation yes! But we cant save
our way out of this!
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Wind Power
Fuel is free, renewable, non-polluting, its
relatively simple! But Wind Power is
Intermittent (20 to 40 capacity factor) 40 to
70 square miles (3000 turbines) for 1000
MW But land may still be useable-pasture/crops/f
actories Diffuse energy creates
integration/synchronization issues Often not
produced where needed-transmission Not grid
friendly, need storage or Coal/Nuclear
backup! Is it environmentally acceptable? On
mountain peaks? Near population? Do as much as
possible when feasible and economical.
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Wind Installations
Total Installed US capacity 16.8 Units-delivering
about 5 units electrical!
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Photo of Maple RidgeTug Hill NY
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Maple Ridge Wind Farm
195 Turbines 320 MW installed capacity 550
Million cost 22000 Acres/34 sq miles 1.6 MW per
turbine Lewis County, Tug Hill Plateau 1600 to
2000 feet elev Delivers about 0.1 Unit on
average
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Solar Power (World total installed about 16
units-delivers about 4 units)
Lots of it, fuel is free, conceptually simple,
passive But Photovoltaic very costly per
megawatt, high maintenance Solar Thermal
costly-need mirrors heat sink (in the
desert?) Doesnt work night/cloudy days,
capacity factor less than 25 Energy density
extremely low- 40 square miles for 1000MW Prime
locations Southwest desert-far from users Not
Grid friendly, need storage or coal/nuclear
backup Home owners get 30 Fed tax credit Best
use-small scale passive home heating, hot water,
remote areas
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Solar Photovoltaic
Germany 6 MW .006 Units
Nevada planned 6.3 MW .0063 units
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Mohave Desert
Solar Thermal
About 0.5 units max capacity-0.1 unit
delivered. Cost 3 Billion
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HYDROELECTRIC
Ideal for electric generation, very cost
effective, no carbon dioxide emission, relatively
simple. But Water distribution diffuse but
nature concentrates for us Not many remaining
opportunities to exploit Environmental concern?
damming of wild rivers? Useful storage option
where available-i.e. pump station
Its great, use as much as possible, but will be
limited to about 5 of total needs (can we use
tides?)
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Hydroelectric Plants
Hoover Dam
2 Units
Niagara Falls 2.4 Units-USA 2 Units Canada
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GEOTHERMAL
Great source of zone heating and electric power
where available. (Like Iceland) Large heat
source deep in earths core, hard to get at, hard
to extract large quantities Few accessible
supplies-need both hot rocks and water There is
a 50 degree F heat sink 10 feet down! How to use
it? Do whenever feasible, but NOT readily
available Possibilities? Maybe!
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Geothermal Plant
Nesjavellir Iceland 0.12 Units Plus hot water
heating
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Biomass
Burning wood, converting corn or soy beans into
ethanol, use vegetation to make diesel fuel,
algae into diesel!
Its an attractive concept! Its Renewable-can
be replenished Plants take Carbon Dioxide back
out of the air But Uses a lot of land,
Competes food supplies One acre of corn
provides 40 or 50 gallons of Ethanol May use
more energy than produced? One unit takes area
greater than Rhode Island
Not a good solution!
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OIL/GASOLINE
Provides 95 of Transportation, supports many
Industrial Products, Transportation
infrastructure is in place But High carbon
dioxide emission Cost rising rapidly Supplies
limited- peak oil? Oil shale possibility-costly
We need to import large amounts, economy
vulnerable Were vulnerable to blackmail with
many dollars going to our enemies Use for
Transportation and Industrial Production.
Drill-will need all we can get-Increase
supplies!
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Gap in Oil supply and need
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Drilling and Crude oil Price
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NATURAL GAS
Provides most of the home and commercial
heating(cheapest option), infrastructure in
place, domestic supply, easily transported. High
energy content. But Upward pressures on
price/demand Rapid growth in use for electrical
generation a more expensive option Usable for
transportation, but need major infrastructure Ava
ilable supplies should be used for home and
commercial heating. Avoid excessive cost
growth!
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NEW ELECT CAPACITY(USA)
Capacity Brought on Line by Fuel Type
(1950-2004)
80,000
Other Petroleum Hydro Nuclear Natl Gas Coal
MWe
40,000
40 units
20 units
2001
1974
1950
Source RDI PowerDat database. Last updated
9/15/03.
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Coal
It currently provides nearly 50 of our electric
power-lowest cost. We have domestic supply.
(Remember when it was used for heating and
transportation?) But High Carbon dioxide
emission Mining and transport dirty and risky
Environmental impact-strip mining,
emissions Reality! Must remain a major energy
source probably more than current 50. Invest in
clean coal technology
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Cost Comparison of Electrical Generation
X
Solar(35cents) Wind (6-9 cents)
12.0
2003 cents per kilowatt-hour
Nuclear 1.72 Coal 1.80 Gas 5.77 Oil 5.53
10.0
8.0
X?
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Nuclear Energy Institute
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New Coal Plant
Prairie States Plant Illinois-Planned 1.6
Units A newer clean coal plant
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Nuclear Power
Provides 20 of our electric power safe, clean,
green, Equals coal with lowest electricity fuel
cost. But No new plants for 20 years Waste
storage an issue-political? New plants have high
initial construction cost Public
acceptance Nuclear must be a major source of
future energy . Can also be used for producing
water and hydrogen. Can breed new fuel when
needed!
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Typical Nuclear Power Plant
North Anna ESP Site
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New Nuclear Plants
World Nuclear Association, world-nuclear.org
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Uranium Supply
51
World Reserves! View of Options
Total use is 5000 Units per year
Oil-Use 2500 Units of Oil 40 billion
Barrels/yr Reserve is 1300 billion Barrels 35
to 50 years Oil sand/shale maybe 30 years
more-expensive? Coal-Use 1800
Units 3 millions tons of coal Reserve is 900
billion tons 200 to 300 years Natural Gas-Use
1300 Units 3Trillion Cubic Meters Reserve is
180 trillion Cubic Meters60 to 80 years Uranium-
Use 400 Units Reserve is 200yrs to gtgt1000s
yrs (with breeding)
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Summary
Coal must remain be a major source of our
electricity. Fix the CO2 Nuclear energy must
become big player-Open Yucca, reprocess Oil will
be in Short Supply! Costs going up! Use for
transportation/industrial products Natural gas
should be used for home and commercial
heating Wind do as much as practical, develop
storage New capacity likely less than the 20
unit/yr growth? (60,000 turbines/yr) Solar and
geothermal when economical-will be small players!
Biomass is wrong approach except in special
situations
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Conclusion
Do renewables when cost effective. They can
reduce CO2 Renewables will not be major player in
reducing oil dependence Solar costly,
diffuse-best use-home heating/hot water Wind
viable, can help, but limited and not grid
friendly Bio-mass small player, doesnt make
sense Making renewables focus is not reality
Obscures the hard choices Coal Nuclear will
be the major players-do them right! Oil / Gas
will be scarce, prices will go back up! Domestic
Drilling
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BACKUP SLIDES
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USA Energy Source/Use ()
Note 1 is about 10 of our new Units
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US Energy Flow
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Wind Turbine Usage Factor
Wind Speed and Power Lee Ranch Colorado For Yr
2002
8760 hrs
Above 20 mph only 10 of time
10 mph
23 mph
Lee Ranch Colorado
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Natural Gas Production and Price
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Global Temperature
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Maple Ridge Photo
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Land Area Needed for 1000 MW(1 Unit)
Low- emissions Options
Method Requirement / Description Land Area (sq.
miles) Photovoltaic 100 km2 _at_ 10 efficiency
40 Wind 3,000 Wind Turbines _at_ 1 MW ea. 40
- 70 Biogas 60,000,000 pigs or 800,000,000
chickens ? ? 6,200 km2 of sugar beets
2,400 Bioalcohol 7,400 km2 of potatoes
2,800 16,100 km2 of corn 6,200 272,000 km2
of wheat 104,000 Bio-oil 24,000 km2 of rapseed
9,000 Biomass 30,000 km2 of wood
12,000 Nuclear lt1 km2 1/3
Need to Recognize Renewables have Low Energy
Density
Idaho National Laboratory General Atomics
Corporation
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Peak oil
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Goal/Purpose of talk

• Educate public about our energy crisis how big
  is the problem, how world energy demand effects
  it, Put it terms that are more understandable
• Show what options are valid/which are not, based
  science, not politics!
• Put current political posturing/pandering on
  energy in perspective
• Briefly discuss pros and cons of the different
  options Petroleum, coal, wind, solar, nuclear,
  hydro, et al
• This is not a pro nuclear talk, but conclusion is
  that we should pursue most options but coal and
  nuclear are only viable solutions for foreseeable
  future.

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Energy Reserves
1 ZJ10000 units Use 5000 units/yr
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Strategic Oil Reserves
700 Million Barrels Stored in the reserve This
equals about 45 of our Units Use about 400
Petroleum Units/year - About 40 to 50
days of reserve-total usage Import about 300
Petroleum Units/year -About 50 to 60
days of import equivalent
66
Peak Oil?
67
BTU Content
All of the following fuels are equivalent to
1,000,000 Btu's. Electricity                     
           293.083 kWh                          (
3412 Btu/kWh) Natural Gas                        
    1 MCF, 10 therms  or  1,000 cubic
feet Coal                                        
  83.34 pounds_at_ 12,000 Btu/pound                 
   Propane                                   
10.917 gallons_at_ 91,000 Btu/gallon  Gasoline      
                                8.0
gallons_at_125,000 Btu/gallon Fuel Oil
2                                   7.194
gallons_at_ 139,000 Btu/gallon Fuel Oil
6                                   6.67
gallons_at_ 150,000 Btu/gallon Wood                 
                      285.7 pounds_at_ 3,500
Btu/pound Gasoline 20,000 Btu/pound
1 Gal .85 E117,600 Btus (94) gas
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Energy Consumption
69
World Energy Consumption
About 5000 Total Units 1 TW approx 400 units
ApproxNo. EQ Units 2000 1600 1300 350 150
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Barrel of Crude Oil
Understanding the Energy Crisis
71
Historical Gas Prices
Understanding the Energy Crisis
72
Where Money Goes (2005)
Understanding the Energy Crisis
73
New York Gas Taxes
Understanding the Energy Crisis
New York State 33 cents Local Sales Tax 8
cents Federal Tax 19 cents TOTAL 60 cents
per Gallon
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Gasoline Taxes
State Taxes cents/gal Excise tax 8 Business
Petro tax 16.4 State gas tax 8 Petro testing
fee .05 Oil spill tax .3 Sub Total 32.75
Cents per gal Federal Taxes Excise
tax 18.4 Superfund tax .003 Oil spill
tax .0012 Sub Total 18.82 Cents per gal County
Sales tax 8 cents per gal- capped at 4 of
2 Total 59.57 cents per gal
75
Where Does My Gas Money Go?
Understanding the Energy Crisis
Add 7 for NYS tax
0.60 0.35 0.24 2.10 3.30
0.40 0.33 0.24 2.07 3.04
100 a barrel 42 Gal/Barrel 2.40 gal. of crude
68
76
Electric Power Industry Fuel Costs

• Reference Energy Information Administration

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Uranium in crust of earth
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Solar Thermal Power Plant


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Renewable Energy Distribution 2004
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Renewable Energy 2006