Using the SCEC Computational Platforms for Seismic Hazard Analysis Research

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Using the SCEC Computational Platforms for
Seismic Hazard Analysis Research
Philip Maechling SCEC IT Architect www.scec.org/cm
e Geoinformatics 2006 11 May 2006
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Outline

• Examples of SCEC Seismic Hazard Analysis Research
• Overview of SCEC Earthquake System Science
• Development of SCEC Computational Platform Concept

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Outline

• Examples of SCEC Seismic Hazard Analysis Research
• Overview of SCEC Earthquake System Science
• Development of SCEC Computational Platform Concept

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Puente Hills Blind Thrust System

• Four large earthquakes of M 7.2-7.5 have occurred
  on the Puente Hills blind thrust in the last
  11,000 years.
• This fault is capable of producing an earthquake
  of M gt 7 beneath downtown Los Angeles
• The ground motions from such an event might
  severely damage even well-designed buildings

Dolan et al. (2003)
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Scenario Earthquake Simulations Puente Hills
Peak SA 2.0 magnitude Map
Velocity Y Component Animation
Puente Hills Simulation Scenario Earthquake (10
Hz) Robert Graves (AWM), Amit Chourasia et al
(Viz)
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Projected Losses From Puente Hills Event
Predicted direct losses (Field et al.,
2005) 82 B - 252 B 3,000 - 18,000
fatalities 142,000 - 735,000 displaced
households 30,000 - 99,000 tons of debris
Field, E. et al., (2005) Earthquake Spectra
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• TeraShake Simulation area
• 600 km x 300 km x 80 km
• dx200m
• Mesh of 1.8 Billion cubes
• 0.011 sec time step, 20,000 time steps 3 min
• Kinematic source Cajon Creek to Bombay Beach (or
  back
• -60 sec source duration
• -18,886 point sources, each 6,800 time steps in
  duration

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Southernmost San Andreas M7.7
NW?SE
NW?SE
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Pathway 2 TeraShake Platform
M7.7 Earthquake on Southernmost San Andreas Fault
Olsen et al. (2006)
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Particle Velocities Along N50E Profile
Largest Peak Motions above ridge between SG and
LA Basins
Olsen et al. (2006) Geophysical Research Letters
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Validation Using Seismic Data
Fontana 01/06/05
Yorba Linda 09/03/02
PGV Data (SH)
PGV Synthetic (SH)
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CyberShake Apply 3D Ground Motion Modeling to
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Calculations
PGA (g) with 2 Probability of Exceedance in 50
years National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project
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Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Curve
Exceeded every year
Ground motion that will be exceeded every year
Exceeded 1 time in 10 years
Ground motion that a person can expect to be
exceeded during their lifetime
Exceeded 1 time in 100 years
Annual frequency of exceedance
Typical design for buildings
10 probability of exceedance in 50 years
Exceeded 1 time in 1000 years
Typical design for hospitals
I-10 Freeway during Northridge
Exceeded 1 time in 10,000 years
Typical design for nuclear power plant
Minor damage
Moderate damage
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Ground Motion Peak Ground Acceleration
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SCEC/CME OpenSHA Conceptual Model
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San Andreas Earthquake Peak Ground Velocity Maps
Peak Velocity Ground Motion Maps for M7.7 using
3D Ground Motion Modeling
Peak Velocity Ground Motion Map for M7.7 using
Attenuation Relationship
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(No Transcript)
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CyberShake Platform

• Simulates ground motions for potential fault
  ruptures within 200 km of each site
• 12,700 sources in SoCal from USGS 2002 ERF
• Extends ERF to multiple hypocenters and slip
  models for each source
• 100,000 ground motion simulations for each site

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CyberShake Platform
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CyberShake Platform
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CyberShake Platform
Graves, R., et al., SSA 2006
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Common Elements to this SCEC Research

• Predictive, system-oriented, socially relevant
  geophysical research
• Computationally intensive and data intensive
  research.
• Requires large interdisciplinary teams (multiple
  geoscientific specialties, multiple computer
  science specialties).
• The computational capabilities needed by each of
  these research efforts has been preserved as a
  SCEC Computational Platform (OpenSHA, TeraShake,
  CyberShake)

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Outline

• Examples of SCEC Seismic Hazard Analysis Research
• Overview of SCEC Earthquake System Science
• Development of SCEC Computational Platform Concept

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• Southern California Earthquake Center
• Involves 500 scientists at 55 institutions
  worldwide
• Focuses on earthquake system science using
  Southern California as a natural laboratory
• Translates basic research into practical products
  for earthquake risk reduction

SCEC Focus Groups
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SCEC Member Institutions(October 1, 2005)
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Southern California A Natural Laboratory for
Earthquake System Science

• Complex network of
• over 300 active faults
• 12,700 earthquake
• sources in 2002
• USGS model
• Highly heterogeneous
• geologic structure
• Large urban population
• with densely built
• environment ? high risk
• System-level studies coordinated by SCEC under
  NSF and USGS sponsorship

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Three Global Geosystems
Atmosphere
Hydrosphere
Cryosphere
Biosphere
Lithosphere
Asthenosphere
Deep Mantle
Outer Core
Inner Core
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SCEC Community Velocity Model
H. Magistrale et al. (2000)
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SCEC Community Fault Model
A. Plesch and J. Shaw (2003)
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SCEC Community Block Model
Set of interconnected, closed volumes that are
bounded by major faults, as well as topography,
base-of-seismicity, and Moho surfaces.
Intended for use in fault systems analysis
(FEM) property modeling
J. Shaw et al. (2004)
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SCEC Crustal Motion Map
CMM.3.0.1 (Agnew et al., 2003)
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Unified Structural Representation
Crustal Motion Map
Tectonic models
Community Fault Model
Community Block Model
Structural models
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SCEC/CME Focus On Seismic Hazard Analysis

• SCEC/CME System aims to extend and enhance
  geosciences work already performed in the area of
  seismic hazard analysis.

Metadata for Map IMT Peak Acceleration POE
10 TimeSpan 50 Years IMR 1) Boore, Joyner, and
Fumal (BJF 1993, 1994a) with later
modifications to differentiate thrust and
strike-slip faulting (Boore et al., 1994b), 2)
Sadigh et al. (1993) and 3) Campbell and
Bozorgnia (1994). ERF (and more)
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Seismic Hazard Analysis is a System-Level Problem
Seismicity
Paleoseismology
Geologic structure
Local site effects
Faults
Seismic Hazard Model
Stress transfer
Rupture dynamics
Crustal motion
Crustal deformation
Seismic velocity structure
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SHA Computational Pathways
Standard seismic hazard analysis
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Empirical models
Intensity Measures
Earthquake Rupture Forecast
Attenuation Relationship
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SCEC/CME Project
Goal To develop a cyberinfrastructure that can
support system-level earthquake science the
SCEC Community Modeling Environment (CME)
Support 5-yr project funded by the NSF/ITR
program under the CISE and Geosciences
Directorates Oct 1, 2001 Sept 30, 2006
NSF CISE GEO
SCEC/ITR Project
USGS
ISI
Information Science
Earth Science
SDSC
IRIS
SCEC Institutions
www.scec.org/cme
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Outline

• Examples of SCEC Seismic Hazard Analysis Research
• Overview of SCEC Earthquake System Science
• Development of SCEC Computational Platform Concept

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SCEC Community Modeling EnvironmentA
collaboratory for system-level earthquake science
KNOWLEDGE REPRESENTATION REASONING Knowledge
Server Knowledge base access, Inference Translatio
n Services Syntactic semantic translation
Users
Knowledge Base
Ontologies Curated taxonomies, Relations
constraints
Pathway Models Pathway templates, Models of
simulation codes
DIGITAL LIBRARIES Navigation Queries Versioning
, Replication Mediated Collections Federated acce
ss
KNOWLEDGE ACQUISITION Acquisition
Interfaces Dialog planning, Pathway
construction strategies Pathway Assembly Template
instantiation, Resource selection, Constraint
checking
Code Repositories
FSM
RDM
AWM
SRM
Data Simulation Products
Data Collections
GRID Pathway Execution Policy, Data ingest,
Repository access Grid Services Compute storage
management, Security
Pathway Instantiations
Storage
Computing
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SCEC Community Modeling EnvironmentA
grid-enabled collaboratory for system-level
earthquake science
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Intelligent services (smart assistants) Integrated
system tools (workbench/dashboard) Workflow
management Domain applications (webservices/applic
ations) Resource sharing (grids) Hardware
(computing, networking, storage)
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Cyberinfrastructure Layering
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Seismic Hazard Research Has Driven the
Development of SCEC Computation Platforms

• 2003
• OpenSHA
• 2004
• OpenSHA, TeraShake
• 2005
• OpenSHA, TeraShake, CyberShake
• 2006
• OpenSHA, TeraShake, CyberShake, SCEC Earthworks

See the TeraShake, CyberShake, SCEC Earthworks
Posters/Demos This Meeting
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SCEC Computational Platform Concept

• Computational Platform Concept emerged from the
  following observations
• Using Cyberinfrastructure in large scale research
  quickly identifies which technologies are ready
  for application, and what are still research.
• A significant portion of the work involved in a
  large research study is the vertical integration
  of the Cyberinfrastructure used. It is desirable
  to preserve this integration once achieved
• Large scale research computing needs
  geoscientists and computer scientists working
  together.

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SCEC Computational Platform Concept

• Definition of Computational Platform
• A vertically integrated collection of hardware,
  software, and people that provides a broadly
  useful research capability
• Implied capabilities
• Validated simulation software and geophysical
  models
• Re-usable simulation capabilities
• Imports parameters from other systems. Exports
  results to other systems
• IT/geoscience collaboration involved in operation
• Access to High-performance hardware and large
  scale data and metadata management.
• May use Workflow management tools

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The Future of SCEC Research Geoscientists and
Computer Scientists Collaborating
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SCEC Computational Platform Concept
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Conclusions

• Use research projects to vertically integration
  of geoinformatic tools with other
  Cyberinfrastructure.
• Geosciences need interdisciplinary collaborations
  and we must develop a community in which there
  are appropriate benefits and rewards to all
  participants.

www.scec.org/cme
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End