Irish Potatoes

1
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2

• The Puzzle
• Why did a House of Commons and a House of Lords
  dominated by landed Tories vote to
• Increase income taxes and lower tariffs on
  imported agricultural goods
• Subsidize the education of Catholic priests in
  Ireland
• Repeal the Corn Laws, a measure that was inimical
  to their interests?

2
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2

• Received Answers fail
• Increasing domination of commercial interests
  (Marx)
• Re-election pressures
• Lecture presents three possible models answers
• Extensive form game credible commitment
• Spatial models and heresthetics
• Spatial models and agenda control

3
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2
1841 Election Results (Seats)
4
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2
1841 Election Results (Rural Urban Split)
5
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2
1841 Election Results (Large Small Boroughs)
6
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2

• Starting Assumptions
• Do not automatically impose todays preferences
  on yesterdays politicians (e.g., re-election)
• Interests Land, Labour, Capital
• Two possible arrangements
• Urban (Capital Labour) vs. Rural (Land)
• Class (Capital Land) vs Labour

7
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2

• Lessons of the French Revolution
• Chartism
• Pot Plug Plots
• Anti-Poor Law League
• Radicalism and (horror) democracy!
• Ultra Tory reaction.
• Peels Tamworth Manifesto (1835) Reform to
  Conserve

8
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2

• Sir Robert Peel (b.1788 d.1850)
• Son of a wealthy industrialist
• Not tied to land
• More faith in markets
• Business man by orientation
• Minister in 1817
• Never came to terms with party
• Saw PMs duty to provide Crown with a cabinet

9
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2
The Party System
291
367
Whigs
Radicals
Ultras
Administrative Tories
10
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2

• Peels Policy Objectives
• Neither Commons nor Lords congenial to Peels
  aims
• The Condition of England Question Increase
  standard of living to undercut lower class
  agitation
• At the heart of Peels policy was the conviction
  that the only way to overcome both human misery
  an social threat was to increase the purchasing
  power of the masses. (Gash)
• Philosophers are very regardless of expense when
  the public has to bear it. (Peel)

11
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2

• Peels Policy Objectives
• Country in financial difficulty
• Inflation and Corn Laws driving up food prices
• Fuels Chartist agitation
• Peels budget re-imposes income tax and begins
  free trade
• Both inimical to landed interests yet it passes

12
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2

• Collective Action Rent-Seeking An Aside
• Peel Gladstone (Pres. of Board of Trade)
  lobbied furiously
• Dined at Abp of Yorks. Copper, Tin, Zinc,
  Salmon, Timber, Oil, Saltmeat, all are to be
  ruined, and all in arms.
• (W.E. Gladstone, Diary for 15.03.1842)
• Concentrated benefits versus Diffuse costs
• Rent-seeking

13
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2
4, 3
Support
Hard Budget
3, 2
Oppose
Median Tory
Oppose
Peel
1, 1
Easy Budget
Support
2, 4
14
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2
Support
4, 3
Hard Budget
3, 2
Oppose
Median Tory
Oppose
Peel
1, 1
Easy Budget
Support
2, 4
15
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2
Support
4, 3
Hard Budget
3, 2
Oppose
Median Tory
Oppose
Peel
1, 1
Easy Budget
Support
2, 4
16
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2
4, 2
Support
?, 1
Resign
Hard Budget
Oppose
? , 3
Accept
Median Tory
Peel
Accept
? , 3
Oppose
Peel
? ,1
Resign
Easy Budget
Support
2, 4
17
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2

• Peels Credibility
• Peel had a well-known reputation
• Did not place a premium on party
• Tamworth Manifesto was addressed to, that great
  intelligent class of society which is much less
  interested in contentions of party, than in
  maintenance of order and cause of good
  government.
• Disdained all those who look on party as a pack
  of hounds which must have blood. (quoted in
  Jenkins 1998, 80)

18
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2

• Peels Credibility
• Did not place a premium on party
• Had refused power in the past Bedchamber Crisis
  1839
• Valued free markets and sound finance
• Of all the vulgar arts of government that of
  solving every difficulty which might arise by
  thrusting the hand into the public purse is the
  most derisory and contemptible. (quoted in Evans
  2006, 56)

19
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2
4, 2
Support
3, 1
Resign
Hard Budget
Oppose
1 , 3
Accept
Median Tory
Peel
Accept
1 , 3
Oppose
Peel
3 ,1
Resign
Easy Budget
Support
2, 4
20
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2

• Peels Policy Objectives
• Neither Commons nor Lords congenial to Peels
  aims
• The Condition of England Question Increase
  standard of living to undercut lower class
  agitation (Free Trade)
• The Condition of Ireland Question Ensure
  propertied Catholics sided with English Regime
  (Religious Toleration)

21
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2

• Peels Irish Policy
• Considerations of policy, and also of justice,
  demand a liberal and indulgent estimate of the
  claims of such Roman Catholics as abstain from
  political agitation (Jenkins 1998, 118)
• the wit of man could not devise a more
  effectual method for converting them Catholic
  Priests at Maynooth College into sour,
  malignant, demagogues, hostile to the law from
  all the sympathies of low birth and kindred,
  living by agitation, inclined to it and fitted
  for it by our pernicious system of education.
  (Evans 2006, 66)

22
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2
Separate
Dissenters (radicals)
Separation of State Church
Whigs
Peel
Irish MPs
Ultras
SQ
Fused
Anti-Catholic
Pro-Catholic
Religious Toleration
23
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2

• Peel Maynooth
• Peel wins on Maynooth, but
• Reliant on moderate Whig support
• Splits Conservatives 149-148
• Wellington uses public order argument in Lords
• We cannot avoid their being Roman Catholics

24
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2

• Peel the Corn Laws
• Probably not a two-dimensional story in Commons
• Whigs, Radicals, and Irish Support Peel
• Splits Conservatives
• Roll-call analysis not obviously two-dimensional

25
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2
One-Dimensional Solution
MP with 50 Yea votes 50 No votes
MP with 100 No voting record
MP with 100 Yea voting record
26
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2
MP with 50 Yea votes 50 No votes on votes
1-k, votes No on votes k1 to n
Two-Dimensional Solution
MP always votes Yes on votes 1-k, votes Yes
on votes k1 to n
MP always votes No on votes 1-k, votes Yes on
votes k1 to n
27
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2

• Peel the Corn Laws
• A 1-dimensional take-it-or-leave-it model in
  Commons
• Peel is
• Genuinely upset at the human costs of the Irish
  Famine
• Of the view that the Famine can be used to push
  free trade... The remedy is the removal of all
  impediments to the import of all kinds of human
  food that is, the total and absolute repeal for
  ever of all duties on all articles of
  subsistence (Quoted in McLean, 38).

28
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2

• Peel the Corn Laws
• Russell Whigs come out in favour of Repeal (no
  surprise its in their political interests)
• Peels Cabinet is deeply split Peel resigns!
• Secures promises from Wellington and Stanley not
  to form a Protectionist Cabinet. Why are these
  promises credible?

29
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2

• Peel the Corn Laws
• Russell finds he cannot form a Cabinet either
• Peel is the only alternative he returns as PM.
• Median Tory MP knows
• No protectionist alternative
• Its Peel or back to Russell or an election
• Peel can use his agenda power to make a
  take-it-or-leave-it offer to the House

30
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2
Median MP (Tory)
Peel
Status Quo
Free Trade
Protectionist
Any policy proposal within this area is preferred
by median MP to SQ
31
Irish Potatoes British Politics Peel,
Wellington, and the Repeal of the Corn Laws.
McLean, Chapter 2

• Peel the Corn Laws
• A 1-dimensional take-it-or-leave-it model in
  Commons
• In Lords, Wellington uses spectre of
  constitutional crisis to secure passage
• ...and this for the sake of the Queen, the
  religious and other ancient institutions of the
  country... (Quoted in McLean 42)

32
Dishing the Whigs Disreaili, Salisbury, and the
Relaunching of the Tory Party, 1846-86 (McLean
Ch. 3)

• The Puzzle
• 2nd and 3rd Reform Acts greatly extended
  franchise in Britain
• Enfranchisement ostensibly against Conservatives
• 2nd Reform Act passed by Conservative minority
  after Liberal majority failed to pass less
  sweeping reforms
• 3rd Reform Act secured with Conservatives active
  support
• Why did Conservatives act (and successfully) in
  this way?

33
Background

• Repeal of Corn Laws split Tories
• Peelites (Palmerston Gladstone)
• Protectionists (Aberdeen, Derby, Disraeli)
• Liberals are an uneasy coalition of Whigs,
  Radicals, and Irish Repealers

very approximate figures
34
Background

• Repeal of Corn Laws split Tories
• 1851 Census Anglicans (i.e., Tory voters) in
  minority!
• Britain urbanizing. to Tories detriment
• The present arrangement, which leaves the
  balance of power in small boroughs, which are
  ruled by cliques of Dissenters, seems fatal to
  the maintenance of the present aristocratic and
  ecclesiastical institutions (Disraeli, quoted
  in McLean 1999, 62)
• Can Tories get out of their electoral dead-end?

35
Brights Tour

• Radicals initiate a speaking tour to agitate for
  further reform
• Brights speeches show Radicals strongly prefer
  redistribution to extension of franchise
• 86 small boroughs abolished, only 25 county seats
• 6 occupier (i.e., rental) franchise
• but not all Liberals are Radicals

36
Brights Tour

• Disraeli asks local agents to assess Brights
  plan
• 6 rental franchise would bring in too many
  Liberals increase registration costs Brights
  plan would, double the most corrupt class of
  voter and... make it too expensive for any but
  the lowest Radical to contest (Smith 1966, 40).
• In contrast, 20 to 10 in counties is a
  possibility The 10 occupiers in the Villages
  are Tradesmen all under the thumb of the
  Agriculturalists in Parishes who are mostly
  Conservatives... the Conservatives would gain
  more from 10 than 20 (Smith 1966, 41)

37
Turning Reform to Tories Advantage

• Disraeli to Derby
• The question of suffrage may be dealt with
  extensively, but in an eminently conservative
  manner. If fifty members were added to the
  counties, by reducing the small borough to one
  member, and every 10 householder in the county
  population were annexed to a borough
  constituency, you would greatly increase the
  Conservative power at the same time Our party is
  now a corpse, but in the present perplexed state
  of affairs, a Conservative public pledge to
  Parliamentary Reform might put us on our legs.
• (Disraeli, quoted in McLean 1999, 62)

38
Turning Reform to Tories Advantage

• In other words
• Manipulate enfranchisement by gerrymandering
• and become party of electoral reform
• and Tories may just save themselves!

39
Turning Reform to Tories Advantage

• Russell (Liberal leader) successfully opposes
• no re-adjustment of the Franchise will satisfy
  this House or the Country, which does not provide
  for a greater extension of the suffrage in Cities
  and Boroughs that is contemplated in the present
  measure.
• (Russell, quoted in McLean 1999, 63)
• Grosvenor amendment (no extension of franchise
  before redistribution issue settled) carried
  against government Russells government
  collapses

40
Turning Reform to Tories Advantage

• Disraelis minority government initiates plan
• Redistributes 52 borough seats to counties
• Fancy Franchise
• Promises enfranchisement after anomalies
  resolved

41
How are Tories to Succeed?

• Median MP is against electoral reform
• Tories only have a minority
• but the issue is two-dimensional
• Redistribution of Seats
• Extension of Franchise
• and Liberals are divided on these issue
  dimensions

42
Disraeli Derby Plot

• Disraeli proposes to Derby
• Suppose you took up the measure where it
  stops 6 rating for boroughs 20 rating for
  counties, to be brought up on report the
  northern boroughs to be enfranchised no
  disenfranchisement of any kind. You could carry
  this in the present House, and rapidly. It would
  prevent all agitation in the recess it would cut
  the ground entirely from under Gladstone
• (Disraeli, quoted in McLean 1999, 66)

43
Disraeli Derby Plot

• Derby likes the idea
• If we get the House pledged to our principles
  it will be difficult for the Radicals , either to
  escape from Amendments, or so to frame them as
  not to clash with moderate Liberals and widen the
  existing breach.
• (Derby, quoted in McLean 1999, 66)

44
Disraeli Derby Plot

• Places the Tories in a no-lose situation
• They pass their legislation over Gladstones
  objections, the Liberals appear divided, and
  Tories establish their government
• They fall Gladstone appears reactionary, and
  Tories enter election as moderate alternative to
  Radical democracy.

45
How are Tories to Succeed?

• Median MP is against electoral reform
• Tories only have a minority
• but the issue is two-dimensional
• Redistribution of Seats
• Extension of Franchise
• and Liberals are divided on these issue
  dimensions

46
The Political Landscape of Reform
Universal Suffrage
Bright Radicals
Gladstone Liberal Leaders
Extension of Franchise
Adullamites
SQ
SQ
Reduce Southern Seats
Add Northern Seats
Redistribution of Seats
47
The Political Landscape of Reform
Universal Suffrage
Adullamites have non-symmetric preferences moves
in this direction are fine
Extension of Franchise
SQ
SQ
Reduce Southern Seats
Add Northern Seats
Redistribution of Seats
48
The Political Landscape of Reform
Universal Suffrage
Extension of Franchise
Its moves to reduce their seats that the
Adullamites oppose
SQ
SQ
Reduce Southern Seats
Add Northern Seats
Redistribution of Seats
49
The Initial Offer
Universal Suffrage
Disraelis initial offer 6 rating fancy
franchise
Extension of Franchise
SQ
SQ
Reduce Southern Seats
Add Northern Seats
Redistribution of Seats
50
Gladstones Bid
Gladstone makes bid for 5 rating
Universal Suffrage
Extension of Franchise
SQ
SQ
Reduce Southern Seats
Add Northern Seats
Redistribution of Seats
51
Disraelis Coup
Universal Suffrage
Disraeli counters, accepts Hodgkinson Amendment
personal payment of rates no fancy franchise
Extension of Franchise
SQ
SQ
Reduce Southern Seats
Add Northern Seats
Redistribution of Seats
52
The Third Reform Act, 1885

• Last barrier is universal manhood suffrage
• Salisbury is bitterly opposed, but appreciates
  that gerrymandering might offset impact of
  enfranchisement
• Uses Lords veto to block franchise bill
• must be accompanied by provisions for so
  apportioning the right to return members of
  parliament as to insure a true and fair
  representation of the people.
• Danger of a Peers against the People election.

53
Salisburys Brinkmanship
For Salisbury

The best that can be achieved given the
radicalism of the age
Pass
Enfranchise Redraw Boundaries
Veto
Peers vs People election Tories appear
uncompromising not good
Liberals
Salisbury
Conservatives wiped out electorally a disaster
Pass
Only Enfranchise
Peers vs People election risky, but provoked by
Liberals unwillingness to compromise
Veto
54
Salisburys Brinkmanship
For Liberals

Partial victory Liberals appear open to reason
compromise
Pass
Enfranchise Redraw Boundaries
Peers vs People election Tories appear rigid and
uncompromising a good outcome
Veto
Liberals
Salisbury
Conservatives wiped out electorally a complete
victory
Pass
Only Enfranchise
Peers vs People election, but brought on by
Liberal provocation. Too radical? How will the
villa vote react? Risky and not much upside
Veto
55
Salisburys Brinkmanship

2, 2
Pass
Salisbury prefers to pass bill here
Enfranchise Redraw Boundaries
Veto
3, 1
Liberals
Salisbury
4, 0
Pass
Salisbury prefers to veto bill here
Only Enfranchise
1, 3
Veto
56
Salisburys Brinkmanship

2, 2
Pass
Liberals prefer partial victory on reform to a
risky Peers vs People election so they
compromise
Enfranchise Redraw Boundaries
Veto
3, 1
Liberals
Salisbury
4, 0
Pass
Only Enfranchise
1, 3
Veto
57
Salisburys Brinkmanship

This is subgame perfect Nash equilibrium
2, 2
Pass
Enfranchise Redraw Boundaries
Veto
3, 1
Liberals
Salisbury
4, 0
Pass
Only Enfranchise
1, 3
Veto
58
The Arlington Street Compromise

• Compromise consists of
• Enfranchisement
• Redistribution fewer 2-member districts in
  boroughs
• shifts proportion of winnable seats in Tories
  favour
• Allows Dilke (Radical) to win intra-party battle
  vs Whigs
• Boundary Commission
• Separating rural from urban maintains Tory
  strongholds

59
Theoretical Points

• Peel the Corn Laws
• Importance of reputation for establishing
  credibiulity
• Use of agenda control to displace median voters
  power
• Disreali and Salisbury
• Risk-acceptance and risk-aversion
• Last-mover advantage (take-it-or-leave-it)