Fingerprinting Native and Non-native Biodiversity, The Theory of Biotic Acceptance, and, the story of a challenging puzzle.

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Fingerprinting Native and Non-native
Biodiversity, The Theory of Biotic
Acceptance,and, the story of a challenging
puzzle.
Tom Stohlgren (USGS), John Schnase/Neal Most Team
(NASA), Mohammed Kalkhan (CSU) Catherine
Jarnevich, Tracy Davern, Geneva Chong
(USGS), Paul Evangelista and David Barnett (CSU),
with help from . . . Greg Newman, Jim Graham, Jon
Freeman, Alycia Waters, Sara Simonson (NREL),
John Kartesz (BONAP), Bruce Peterjohn, Pam Fuller
(USGS), Curt Flather (USFS), and many others!
Main Project Web Page http//www.NIISS.org
Created Sept. 2004
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We define biotic acceptance as the tendency of
natural ecosystems to accommodate the
establishment and coexistence of non-native
species despite the presence and abundance of
native species.
Were simple ecologists, with a ground-up
approach!
Puzzle Piece 1 Talented and enthusiastic
research team
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Small-scale measurements?
What allowed us to Scale-Up?

1. Woody Turners Biological Fingerprinting
   workshop in NY a challenge to scale-up!
2. Local, state, national and international,
   interest in invasive species science and
   biodiversity.
3. Partnerships with scientists and program managers
   who are not afraid to think big (Jim, John, Ed,
   Woody, the Jeffs, Neal (NASA) Sue, Sharon, Bob,
   Mark, Pam (USGS) and many others.
4. A talented and enthusiastic research team.

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Puzzle Piece 2 Careful ground-based,
multi-scale measurements
Multi-scale Sampling Matters! 1-m2 subplots four 1000-m2 plots
Two Rocky Mt. veg. types positive positive
Two Grassland veg. types negative positive
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Puzzle Piece 3 Comparable measurements in many
vegetation types and biomes.
37 Vegetation types Mean 19.6 plots/type Median
11 plots per type 727 1000-m2 subplots 7,042
1-m2 subplots
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Puzzle Piece 4 Understanding the effects of
scale on alpha diversity.
Biotic acceptance increases among communities
(regionally) and the changing relationship may
be non-linear.
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Puzzle Piece 5 Understanding the effects of
scale on Beta diversity i.e., at regional scales.
Vegetation-type- and regional-scale
Biotic acceptance increases more in
communities high in beta diversity (i.e., high
species accumulation curves and high/optimum
resources water, light, nutrients, warmth).
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Biotic acceptance may increase with
increasing establishment of non-native
species. This appears to be a much stronger
force than the negative effects of native species
richness and biomass with R2 values between 0.43
and 0.58.
Puzzle Piece 6 Understanding temporal changes
in diversity i.e., 400 years of invasion and
continuing.
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Puzzle Piece 7 Link with other studies Past,
present, and future Stohlgren et al. 1997, 1999
Lonsdale 1999, Levine 2000, Stohlgren et al.
2001, 2003
The Present
Gilbert and Lechowicz. 2005
Davies et al. 2005
Bruno et al. 2004
Keeley et al. 2003
Sax 2002, Dark 2004
Brown and Peet. 2003, Friedly et al. 2004
Bob Peet VegBank Data
Jim Quinn Data
Many other studies in different vegetation types
are demonstrating biotic acceptance at multiple
spatial scales or large scales.
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Puzzle Piece 8 regional verification.
Stohlgren et al. 2005a -- Geez! Those are very
high R2 values!
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Methods (1) Gather data (2) Assess data
quality (3) evaluate patterns (GIS maps,
regressions, cross-correlations
Puzzle Piece 9 Gather and evaluate national
databases.
Stohlgren et al. 2005b. Species richness and
patterns of invasion in plants, birds, and
fishes in the United States. Biological
Invasions (In Press)
Bruce Peterjohn (Breeding Bird Survey 4,000
routes, 10 years, and bird atlases life times
of birding)
John Kartesz, Biota of North America Program,
Univ. North Carolina. (46 states, Over 3000
counties, 500,000 records, 10 years of research,
standard reference).
Pam Fuller, South Florida-Caribbean Science
Center, USGS (10 years of Research, gt200,000
records and Larry Master, NatureServes huge
database).
Stohlgren, Barnett, and Flather are just data
miners
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Native plant species/county
Non-native plant species/county
gt 170
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Native bird species/county
Non-indigenous bird species/county
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Native fish species/watershed
Non-indigenous fish species/watershed
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Puzzle Piece 10 Quantify cross-taxa patterns
Stohlgren et al. 2005b Biological Invasions (in
press)
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Results are encouraging, so far . . .

• Native plant, bird, and fish densities generally
  track latitude, temperature, precip., and each
  other (i.e., habitat heterogeneity) all proven
  factors of local determinism, but no sign of
  the saturation of species.
• Human factors (population, road density, land-use
  change) are weakly correlated to native
  diversity, and more strongly correlated to
  non-native diversity, but environmental factors
  may be more proximate predictors of native and
  non-native species diversity.
• At county scales, non-native species densities
  also track native species densities (for plants,
  birds, and fish) and the biological groups
  track each other the rich get richer within
  and across biological groups, and this pattern is
  strongly predictable!

This is great!
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National Institute of Invasive Species Science
Global Organism Detection and Monitoring System
Objective Capturing information (location data,
species characteristics, and environmental
attributes) on all taxa of invasive species to
detect, control, and monitor their spread.
Integrating these data to serve land managers,
land owners, researchers, government officials,
and the public.
From the field
To the web

• Multiple data types
• Upload via the web in three formats
• Palm programs (weed mapping and vegetation
  survey)
• GIS Shapefile
• Tab-delimited text file
• User maps fields to database fields
• Require specific format (e.g. standardized
  measurements)

• Based on enterprise database, custom COM objects,
  and ASP pages
• Interactive map displaying invasive species
  distributions
• Add new locations by clicking the map
• Query the database by species, project, or area
• Real-time statistics and links to research
• Species profiles
• Watch lists

Rocky Mountain National Park
To the modeling

• Current and potential abundance and distribution
• Probability maps
• Gaps in knowledge from uncertainty maps
• Smart surveys
• Select priority species and sites
• Vulnerability and risk analysis

Filed crews use palmtops downloaded to the
database via phones or computers.
To the future

• Tentative release date September 2005
• E-mail new species report to manager
• On-line modeling capabilities
• Download selected data
• PDF report with map, profile, control
  information, and model

To the database

• SQL Server- extensible and standardized
• Three main, required fields
• Area geographic location
• Visit date area was visited
• OrganismData unique organism id for a visit
• Capture metadata, auxiliary data, spatial data
  (e.g. shapefile for area), treatments (control
  information), etc.

Probability of occurrence for leafy spurge in
Colorado modeled and tested using informations
from 45 datasets.

Puzzle Piece 11 Improve data handling and
promote data sharing.
URL http//www.niiss.org
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Puzzle Piece 12 Improve data accessibility --
www.niiss.org
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Puzzle Piece 13 Developing strategies for
others to effectively use your data,
capabilities, and services e.g., Risk
Assessment and Early Detection / Rapid Response
Needs
Site
Need to know 1. Current distribution and
abundance, 2. Data completeness, 3. Potential
dist. and abund., 4. Potential rate of spread, 5.
Risks/Impacts (env. econ human health) 6.
Containment Potential 7. Opportunity costs 8.
Legal mandates To select Priority Species and
Priority Sites
County, State, Region
Nation
Rarely done
Stohlgren, T. and J. Schnase. 2005. Biological
hazards What we need to know about invasive
species. Risk Analysis Journal (In Press)
Requires modeling
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Puzzle Piece 14 Improve spatial modeling and
forecasting capabilities. THE KEY PIECE TO THE
PUZZLE!
For more information see www.NIISS.org
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Preliminary Model of Potential Spread in 10 Years
Control/ Restoration Monitoring Sites
Early Detection Rapid Response Sites
Priority Survey Sites
Containment Boundary
10 Years
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Puzzle Piece 15 Adjust to changing customer
needs.
Hackberry Canyon Watershed, Utah
Presence Maps
Tamarisk locations
Biomass Maps (g/0.5m2)
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We have many pieces of the puzzle in place. We
are integrating across disciplines and programs
(NASA/USGS). We have made progress in many
areas. We are producing valuable products. We
still have much of our work ahead of us to
complete the puzzle.
Great Research Team
Fail-proof Web-service
Alpha, Beta, and Gamma diversity
Many more datasets
Multi-scale Surveys
Web focus and tools
Many more taxa (diseases/ pathogens)
Improved Decision Support
Additional Spatial Temporal models
Automated data ingest and modeling
Fine- Scale Maps Spp. habitats
Cross- Taxa tests
Improved data handling and access
Regional National data
Backup systems
NIISS
Local/ Regional verification
Cluster computing and modeling
Links to other studies
Customers are lining up
EDRR
For more information see www.NIISS.org
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Lots on invaders! More every day! Plant, Animals,
and Diseases Aquatic and Terrestrial
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• Managing Invasive Species is
• Urgent Extremely high demand for meeting more
  customers needs. Need technology assisted field
  techniques iterative field and modeling methods
  for invasive species surveys data entry/mapping
  tools linked to large relational databases,
  remote sensing, and GIS tools, and economic
  analyses NOW!

2. Difficult Issues of scaling, data synergy,
data hording, limited funds, multiple spatial
scales, multiple biological groups, and human and
animal behavior. It also involves a Grand
Challenge Ecological forecasting of biological
organisms frontiers in science.
3. Costly Prevention, early detection and rapid
assessment, survey and monitoring, research, and
restoration carry a high price. BUT the
cost of inaction is far greater 120 B/yr, lost
production, increased maintenance, species loss,
habitat degradation, costs to human health!
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Biodiversity Outlook

1. Over much of the US, and maybe the globe, the
   rich get richer.
2. The invasion is in the early stages.
3. Establishment inevitable disturbance will
   facilitate future invasion.
4. More sites will become dominated by invaders over
   time.
5. Species extinction will be slow, but significant,
   relative to the invasion.
6. Coexistence is the rule but extirpation,
   hybridization, habitat degradation, diseases,
   pathogens, and extinction are inevitable!

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Scale-Up! Speed up! Invest More!
For more information see www.NIISS.org