THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)

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THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)
National Science Foundation March 6, 2003 NAME
Homepage http//www.joss.ucar.edu/name
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OUTLINE

• PROGRAM RATIONALE AND HYPOTHESES
• NAME MODELING AND DATA ASSIMILATION RD
• 3. LINKAGES (PROGRAMS, AGENCIES, COUNTRIES)
• 4. NAME 2004 FIELD CAMPAIGN

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WHAT IS NAME?

• NAME is an internationally coordinated, joint
  CLIVAR GEWEX process study aimed at determining
  the sources and limits of predictability of warm
  season precipitation over North America.

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RATIONALE FOR NAME

• Coupled models do not accurately simulate or
  predict warm season precipitation, especially in
  tropical / subtropical land-ocean interaction
  regions.
• NAME seeks improved understanding of the key
  physical processes that must be parameterized for
  improved simulations and predictions with coupled
  models.
• A fundamental first step towards improved
  prediction is the clear documentation of the
  major elements of the NAMS and their variability
  within the context of the evolving O-A-L annual
  cycle.

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NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)
HYPOTHESIS The NAMS provides a physical basis for
determining the degree of predictability of warm
season precipitation over the region.
Topographic and Sea-Land Influence

• OBJECTIVES
• Better understanding and
• simulation of
• warm season convective
• processes in complex terrain
• (TIER I)
• intraseasonal variability of
• the monsoon (TIER II)
• response of warm season
• circulation and precipitation
• to slowly varying boundary
• conditions (SST, soil
• moisture) (TIER III)
• monsoon evolution and
• variability (TIER I, II, III).

Intraseasonal Variability
Boundary Forcing?
YEAR (2000) 00 01 02 03 04 05
06 07 08 Planning -------------- Preparat
ions -------------- Data
Collection - - -
---------------- Principal Research
---------------------------------- Data
Management ----------------------
-------------------
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NAME IMPLEMENTATION

• Empirical and modeling studies that carry forward
  the joint PACS/GAPP Warm Season Precipitation
  Initiative (2000 onward), and initiate new
  elements.
• NAME Field Campaign (JJAS 2004) including
  build-up, field, analysis and modeling phases.

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ROLE OF THE LAND SURFACE

• The land surface has its strongest influence
  during the warm season (continents are warm
  evaporation is large).
• The land surface has many memory mechanisms (e.g.
  soil moisture, snow, vegetation) that may
  influence monsoon variability.

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ROLE OF LOW-LEVEL JETS
There are 2 important low-level jets that
transport significant moisture to the continent
and that play an important role in the diurnal
cycle of precipitation.
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ROLE OF OCEANIC FORCING OF CONTINENTAL CLIMATE
ANOMALIES

• Ocean memory components evolve slowly and are to
  some degree predictable in their own right.
• Warm season correlations between SST and
  continental precipitation are at least marginal.
• Motivates studies of remote-vs-local SSTs
  antecedent influences influences of MJO,
  ENSO,PDO.

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NAME MODELING OBSERVATIONS TEAM

• Charge
• Provide guidance on needs and priorities for NAME
  2004 field observations.
• NAMAP 10 modeling groups 1990 monsoon,
  global and regional models
• Identify the path to improved warm season
  precipitation prediction
• White Paper - NAME Modeling and Data
  Assimilation RD
• Identify additional process studies necessary to
  reduce uncertainties in coupled models.

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NAME MODELING AND DATA ASSIMILATION RD

• Objective To improve predictions of warm season
  precipitation in the NAME region.
  Approaches
• I. 3-Tiered Approach to link spatial scales
• - Model Development
• - Data Assimilation and Analysis
• - Predictability and Forecast Skill
• II. Multi-scale Modeling Approach
• Links Tiers I-III by employing
  cloud-resolving models to understand
• local processes and to address
  parameterization (and other) issues in
• regional and global models.

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MODEL DEVELOPMENT

• Premise
• The leading factors that limit precipitation
  forecast skill in both global and regional models
  during the warm season are deficiencies in how we
  model local processes that modulate deep
  convection.
• In order to achieve the desired improvements,
  NAME will focus on the diurnal cycle of
  convection in the core monsoon region of NW
  Mexico, a region of complex terrain and land/sea
  contrasts.
• NAME 2004 will provide improved estimates of the
  3-d structure of the monsoon and its variability
  on diurnal to monthly time scales.

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DIURNAL VARIABILITY

• The amplitude of the diurnal cycle in the core
  monsoon region is
• larger than the amplitude of the annual cycle.
• There are large-scale shifts in the regions of
  deep convection
• during the day from over land to over water.
• There is large intraseasonal and interannual
  variability of the
• diurnal cycle, but it is not well understood.
• Improved monitoring and modeling of the diurnal
  cycle will go a
• long way towards improved warm season
  precipitation forecasts
• not just for Tier I, but for Tiers II and III.

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DATA ASSIMILATION AND ANALYSIS
Objectives 1) To improve both global and
regional data assimilation 2) To identify
uncertainties in analyses caused by model
deficiencies 3) To examine NAME data impacts on
analyses 4) To use the analyses to study the
regional / global connections of the important
processes within the NAME region
relationships between moisture surges and
precipitation tropical easterly wave
moisture surge relationships out-of-phase
relationship between precipitation in the core
monsoon region and the U.S. Great Plains
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PREDICTABILITY AND FORECAST SKILL

• Objectives
• 1) To examine the predictability of warm
  season precipitation over
• the NAM region
• 2) To quantify error growth due to model
  errors versus that due to
• uncertainties in analyses and boundary
  conditions
• 3) To assess the value of NAME observations
  for prediction.
• Key Questions (ultimately critical for climate
  prediction)
• How is the life cycle of the monsoon related to
  the evolution of oceanic and continental boundary
  conditions?
• 2) Can models reproduce the observed summertime
  precipitation in average years and years with
  ENSO influence?

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NAME MODELING AND DIAGNOSTIC STUDIES  
       
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NAME AND CLIVAR

• NAME is the North American Implementation of the
  WCRP/ CLIVAR VAMOS Program
• NAME is endorsed by the US CLIVAR SSC as a warm
  season process study of the North American
  monsoon under the US CLIVAR Pan American Panel.
  US CLIVARs interests in NAME were listed in the
  June 2001 meeting report.
• These interests would lead to the following
  deliverables

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CLIVAR - NAME DELIVERABLES

• Coupled climate models capable of predicting
  North American monsoon variability months to
  seasons in advance
• More comprehensive understanding of North
  American summer climate variability and
  predictability
• Infrastructure to observe and monitor the North
  American monsoon system
• Contributions to the assessment of climate
  variability and long-term climate change in the
  North American monsoon region
• Strengthened multinational scientific
  collaboration across the Americas.

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NAME AND GEWEX

• NAME is directly responsive to GEWEX Science
  Goals
• NAME is included in the GEWEX/GAPP Science and
  Implementation plan, with emphasis on topographic
  influences on precipitation, hydrology and water
  resources, and land-surface memory processes.
• NAME will contribute to GEWEXs Cloud System
  Study (GCSS) by bringing a focus on the effects
  of complex coastal terrain on precipitating
  convection into the agenda of GCSS Working Group
  4 (Precipitating Convective Cloud Systems).

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INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS

• SMN Meteorological Infrastructure
• 79 synoptic stations
• 16 radiosonde sites
• 60 automated weather stations (15 more in 2003)
• 12 radars (4 in northwestern Mexico)
• Historical and real-time data
• NAME Forecast Operations Center
  (meteorologists,technicians)
• (2) Universities and Institutions in Mexico and
  Central America
• (UNAM, IMTA, CICESE, University of Costa
  Rica, Univ. of Vera Cruz, Univ. of Guadalajara)
• Equipment, personnel, transportation, data
  collection, research

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NAME PROJECT STRUCTURE

• 3-Pronged
• NAME Science Working Group (Science Focus)
• VAMOS / NAME Project Office (Field
  Implementation, Data Management, Logistics)
• NAME Forecast Operations Center
• NAME International Project Support Team
• NAME Program Management

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NAME FIELD OBSERVATIONS (JJAS 2004)
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NAME FIELD NETWORKS (JJAS 2004)

• Regional Networks (Tiers II and III Integrated
  with Tier I Obs)
• Radiosonde
• PIBAL
• Tier I Instrumentation (Focus of NSF facility
  request)
• UHF wind profiler (1)
• VISS (5) (SMN soundingUHF-RASS profiler)
• NCAR ISS (4) (UHF-RASS profilersounding sfc)
• SMN 5cm Doppler radars (4) (3 Enterprise 1
  Eriksson)
• 10cm Doppler-polarimetric radar (NCAR S-POL)
• Ron Brown shipboard platform (VISS, 5cm Doppler
  radar, sfc fluxes)
• NOAA/ETL shipboard flux system (on UNAM/PUMA)
• Advanced Lightning Direction Finder (5)
• Raingauges (100 event logging 1600 simple)
• Research Aircraft (NOAA P-3, NASA P-3B)
• Soil Moisture Sensors

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NAME FIELD OBSERVATIONS and RELATED
DIAGNOSTICS  
Bolded red NSF Deployment Pool bolded blue
other NSF support black NOAA OGP or NASA THP
       
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NAME TIER-I

• Tier I Issues and Opportunities (Carbone)
• Scientific Objectives
• Experiment Design and Observational Requirements
  
• Observing clouds / storms (Rutledge)
• Forcing and budgets (Johnson)
• Simulation, Parameterization (Moncrieff)