Trends and the Significance of Demographic Shifts

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www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends
FUTURES FORUM ON RECREATIONAL BOATING
Ken Cordell Gary Green U.S. Forest
Service, Athens, Georgia AND Becky
Stephens University of Tenn.
Trends and the Significance of Demographic Shifts
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NSRE
NATIONAL SURVEY ON RECREATION AND THE
ENVIRONMENT SINCE 1960 THE UNITED STATES
ON-GOING NATIONAL RECREATION SURVEY
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1960 Flower Children, 18-horse Johnson, VW
Camper Vans, Elvis and The Beatles, Vietnam,
Kennedy, Family Vacations, Chevy Impala V8
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2001INTERNET, WILD STOCK RIDE, HONDA SUVs,
BUSH/GLOBAL WARMING, WEALTH, INTERSTATES, B2
STEALTH, JOBS, GROWTH, ADVENTURE RECREATION
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LONG-TERM TRENDS
LONG-TERM TRENDS
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(No Transcript)
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RECENT TRENDS
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Trends

• Almost 90 percent of Americans participated in
  Outdoor Recreation
• Walking, picnicking, sightseeing,
• swimming, fishing, and bicycling
• the most popular activities

1980's

• 94.5 percent participated
• List of pursuits getting longer, more diverse
• Walking, sightseeing, swimming, picnicking,
  boating most popular

1990's
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NOW

• Over 97 percent report activities
• Most are adding to their recreation menu
• Living longer means staying active longer

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Shifts in Outdoor Recreation Markets

• Technology innovations are making more areas,
  more accessible
• - Jet boats
• - Light-weight gear
• - Sub-zero sports clothing
• - Sticky climbing shoes
• - Night scopes

• Risk/Adventure pursuits are gaining in
  popularity
• - Base jumping
• - Falls shooting
• - Mountain boarding
• - Jet skiing

• Traditional outdoor activities still growing
  (moderately) consumptive activities declining
  viewing/learning activities on the rise.

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Activities Adding the Most Participants 16 or
older, 1982-2001
Millions Growth No. in 2000 Walking 85.4 179
.0 Bird watching 50.0 71.2 Hiking 48.4 73.1 Sw
imming/river, lake, or ocean 36.4 92.9 Sightse
eing 32.7 114.0 Picnicking 31.8 116.6 Bicyclin
g 27.4 83.9 Developed camping 22.8 52.8 Motor
boating 17.8 51.4 Off-road driving 17.3 36.7 B
ackpacking 14.6 23.4
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Regions Where Participants Reside
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Percentage of Americans 16 and Older
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Percentage of Americans 16 and Older (2001)
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Comparison of South Carolina, South, and
Nation (Percentage Participating)
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Our Changing American Society

• About 1 million new immigrants per year
• More people 1990 248 mm
• 2000 275 mm
• 2020 325 mm
• 2050 404 mm
• 2075 481 mm
• 2100 571 mm (Double)
• Getting older Median age 35?38 (by 2020)
• Changing ethnicities by 2050
• Anglo Americans 76?50
• African Americans 12 ?15
• Hispanic Americans 9 ?21
• Asian Americans 4 ?11

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Forecasts
Projected Demand to 2020
Millions Indexed Change Participating
(Base year is 1995) Activities (1995) People Days
Trips Water-Based Going to the
Beach 124 1.24 1.17 1.17 Motor Boating
47 1.21 1.14 1.16 Swimming 78 1.21 1.12 1.09 Fish
ing 58 1.17 1.17 1.10 Canoeing
14 1.15 1.28 1.14 Rafting/Floating
15 1.07 1.17 1.10 Winter-Based Cross-Country
Skiing 6 1.26 0.96 1.12 Downhill Skiing
17 1.22 1.31 1.36 Snowmobiling 7 1.09 1.32 1.35
Forecasts
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Forecasts
Projected Demand to 2020
Millions Indexed Change Participating
(Base year is 1995) Activities (1995) People Days
Trips Land-Based Sightseeing 113 1.32 1.43 1.43 No
n-consumptive wildlife 117 1.29 1.09 1.15 Biking
57 1.28 1.25 1.45 Family Gatherings 124 1.24 1.23
0.83 Hiking 48 1.23 1.24 1.23 Horseback Riding
14 1.23 1.22 1.29 Rock Climbing
8 1.21 1.15 1.03 Walking 134 1.21 1.29
-- Camping 42 1.19 1.36 1.30 Backpacking
15 1.11 1.15 1.08 Off-Road Driving
28 1.05 0.99 1.06 Hunting 19 0.91 0.99 1.03
Forecasts
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DEMOGRAPHIC FOOTPRINTS OF BOATERS
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• CANOERS
• 43 female
• 87 non-Hispanic white
• 33 under 25, 77 under 45
• Incomes mostly between 25K and 75K
• Under 80 urban
• Favored by Northeasterners and Midwesterners

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• KAYAKERS
• 44 female
• 85 non-Hispanic white
• 60 percent under 35, 40 under 25
• Over 1/3 earn under 25K
• 85 urban
• Heavier participation in New England and Pacific
  Coast states

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• SAILERS
• 48 female
• 84 Non-Hispanic white
• 44 under 35
• Middle income earners, also sig- nificant high
  income earners
• 87 urban
• Especially favored in the North- east

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• WINDSURFERS
• 67 male
• Almost ½ under 25, 56 under 35
• 1/3 between 25-50K, 1/3 over 100K
• Northeast and Pacific Coast

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MOTOR BOATERS

• 52 between 25 and 75
• 77 urban
• Favored in the Lake, Midwest and South Atlantic
  states
• 58 between 25 and 55
• 57 male

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WATER SKIERS

• 60 male
• 86 white, 8 Hispanic
• 86 under 45
• Favored by Prairie and Mountain states residents

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PERSONAL WATER CRAFT

• 54 male
• 79 white, 11 percent Hispanic
• 66 under 35
• Favored in the Midwest and South

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Estimated ratios of percentage of participants to
percentage of total population for outdoor
activities by race and country.
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Estimated ratios of percentage of participants to
percentage of total population for outdoor
activities by age and income.
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BEING MORE EFFECTIVE IN OUTREACH, LISTENING, AND
INFORMING
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The Urban Beach Boys (3.8)
Young New England Wind Surfers (0.9)
The Inactives (22.0)
Segmenting for more effective communication and
education
Nature Lovers (27.2)
The Noreaster Musclers (6.2)
The Thrill Seekers (8.3)
Hunt-n-Fish Mens Motor Club (6.3)
The Take it Easies (25.3)
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Nature Lovers (27.2)

• Viewing/photographing birds, flowers, wildlife,
  fish, natural scenery, and gathering mushrooms
  and berries, and learning in nature centers,
  visitor centers, historic sites and archeological
  sites
• Not into hunting, fishing, active sports or
  motorized activities, and not into boating
• 61 female, mostly white, middle aged and
  seniors, not foreign born
• New England and Prairie states well represented
• Donate to civic or charitable organizations,
  spend time with grand children, invest, creative
  arts, collect things and garden, and read
  environmental magazines
• Believe humans are abusing the earth, the balance
  is delicate, and we are on a course for
  catastrophe

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Hunt-n-Fish Mens Motor Club (6.3)

• Hunt, fish, motorized, camp, motorboat (53),
  canoe
• Dont participate in beach activities or much in
  viewing/learning
• 88 male, 90 white, under 45, U.S. born, much
  more rural, Prairie and Southern
• Belong to wildlife conservation group, read
  nature magazines, woodworking, own a business,
  garden, have pets and do home improvements
• Humans were meant to rule over the earth and
  environmental crisis is exaggerated

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The Urban Beach Boys (3.8)

• Diving, Surfing, Snorkeling, Kayaking, Sailing,
  Backpacking, Snowboarding, Saltwater Fishing,
  Water Skiing, Jet Skiing. more active than most
  people in most activities, except hunting
• Two-thirds white, Asian/Pacific Islanders well
  represented, majority under 35, U.S. born, and
  urban
• South Atlantic and Pacific Coast
• Regularly like to go to movies, use internet at
  home, participate in environmental groups,
  invest, and attend classes, involved as a youth
  volunteer, into the arts
• Like most Americans feel humans are abusing the
  earth, were on a course for ecological
  catastrophe and the balance of nature is delicate

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Young New England Wind Surfers (0.9)

• Wind surfing (71), surfing, kayaking (48),
• sailing (68), non-motorized winter
  activities,
• diving, snorkeling, rowing (28) and canoeing
  (55)
• More active than most Americans in all
  activities, including water and jet skiing
• Over 85 white two-thirds male one half under
  25 urban, U.S. born
• New England and Pacific Coast residents strongly
  represented
• Into movies, lifelong learning classes,
  participate with environmental groups, regularly
  attend movies, belong to a country club, on the
  internet and into the stock market
• More strongly believe environmental crisis is
  greatly exaggerated, even though we are nearing
  the earths limits

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The Inactives (22.0)

• Not very active in outdoor activities, except for
  a bit of walking, family gatherings, and
  picnicking
• 55 female, blacks and Hispanic well represented,
  spread across age groups, mostly urban and U.S.
  born
• Spend time with grandchildren, cook at home,
  regularly attend religious services, collect
  things like coins and antiques
• More strongly believe human ingenuity will insure
  the earth, humans were meant to rule over nature,
  humans can control nature, and the environmental
  crisis is exaggerated

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The Noreaster Musclers (6.2)

• Cross-country skiing, rowing (31), kayaking
  (28), canoeing (53), downhill skiing, sailing
  (25), hiking, visiting a wilderness,
  backpacking, snowboarding, bicycling and fishing
• They dont hunt, but are active in most other
  activities
• Somewhat more male than female, white and
  Asian/Pacific Islander, young to middle aged (not
  seniors), urban, from New England, Prairie,
  Mountain and Pacific states
• Members of conservation groups, use the internet
  at home, attend concerts, have vacation property,
  invest, belong to a country club
• More belief that we are abusing the earth, the
  balance of nature is delicate and we may be
  heading for disaster

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The Thrill Seekers (8.3)

• Waterskiing (62), jet skiing (68), rafting
  (46), snowmobiling, snowboarding, motorboating
  (83), downhill skiing, driving off-road, rowing
  and canoeing
• Very active across a large number of activities
• Equally male/female, white and American Indians
  well represented, two thirds under 35, almost all
  born in the U.S., from Plains states
• Youth volunteers, belong to a country club, use
  the internet, attend movies, watch sports on TV,
  gather with friends and neighbors
• Balance of nature is delicate, humans are abusing
  the earth, and a disaster is looming

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The Take it Easies (25.3)

• Sightseeing, driving for pleasure, picnicking,
  visiting historic sites, family gatherings,
  visiting nature centers, and walking
• They dont ski, boat, hunt, fish, or
  view/photograph
• More female than male, Blacks and Asian/Pacific
  Islander well represented, all ages, all regions
• Attend cultural events, go to movies and church,
  raise children and spend time with grandchildren,
  use the internet, and eat out
• Believe humans can insure the liveability of the
  earth and the environmental crisis is exaggerated

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THE PUBLIC IS CONCERNED ABOUT OUR ENVIRONMENT
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Source Roper Organization, 1990 Times Mirror,
1994 NEETF, 1998.
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Percentages Indicating Environmental
Protection or Economic Development are Highest
Priority
Source Gallup/CNN/USA Today Poll, April 13-14,
1999.
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SUMMARY POINTS

• Our society has changed dramatically in the last
  few decades, and it shows up in our outdoor
  recreation
• Outdoor recreation is growing and diversifying as
  a part of Americans lifestyles, almost everyone
  is involved at some level
• Walking, birding, hiking, swimming are at the top
  of the activity growth list, not far behind is
  motor boating

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SUMMARY CONTINUED

• Population is likely to continue its rapid growth
  in the next few decades, with some groups
  literally exploding in numbers
• Increasingly we see women, Asian/Pacific
  Islander, Hispanic, older and urban people
  participating, although outdoor recreation is
  still very much a white male pursuit
• All indicators point to continuation of the rise
  of outdoor recreation in the future, and more
  demands on water and land resources
• At the same time people are showing strong
  concern for the environment and its water and
  land resources
• Resource managers will be challenged like never
  before, and, there will be increasing needs for
  more effective sharing of information about
  safety and impacts
• Need to be smart about outreach and education
  strategies

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www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends