An EXCELbased software toolbox for stochastic fleetbased forecast'

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ICES CM 2003/V07
An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic
fleet-based forecast. Per Sparre Danish
Institute for Fisheries Research. Department of
Marine Fisheries.
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ICES CM 2003/V07
An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic
fleet-based forecast.
Toolbox of Visual Basic routines EXCEL
user-interface
Mixed fisheries and assessment of the effect of
management
Deterministic and stochastic simulation.

User-friendly software, Stand-alone ordinary
ECEL-workbook
Open source Visual Basic sub-routines, Can be
inspected and modified by the user.
The highest degree of transparency of code
Comprehensive on-line help-facility and users
manual.
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COMPONENTS OF THE TOOL-BOX (TEMAS )
a) ICES Prediction model (Basic model)
combined with b) A simple micro-economic model
c) A model of fishers behaviour

) TEMAS Project Technical Measures
Development of evaluation
model and application in Danish
fisheries.
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Multi species

Multi Fleet
Multi Area
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Migration of fish

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Biology - Economy

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STOCHASTIC SIMULATION

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EXCEL application "TEMAS"
Note This is not a commercial for Microsoft
Office. (EXCEL has bugs by the thousands, and
behave strangely! - but everybody has it)
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Dimensions of TEMAS
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VISUAL BASIC
OPEN SOURCE USER FRIENDLY CODE
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Fleet Input
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Vessel - Dynamics

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Capacity Rules

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SURVEY OF BEHAVIOUR RULES IN TEMAS
Reaction of fisheries advisers (ICES).
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Example of behaviour rule Where to fish ?
  CHOICE COMPOSED OF TRADITION and CURRENT
SITUATION
General behaviour model Random Utility
Model Estimation procedure General Logit model.
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Comparison of alternative management regimes
E.g. quota management and effort management

(Ulrich et al. 2002)
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THE END