Title: Population and Development in the MDG Context : The Impact of Population Trends and Structures on MDG Progress
1Population and Development in the MDG Context
The Impact of Population Trends and Structures
on MDG Progress
- Jean Louis RALLU
- INED, Paris
- Second Edition of the Interdisciplinary Course
on the UN Millennium Development Goals - Rome,October 2, 2009
2Content
- Population and Development, the Demographic
Window - Population and Development and international
organizations (the old and new paradigms) - The demographic window of opportunity
- The Millennium development Goals (MDG)
- The relationship between population and MDGs
- Population and development, and MDGs
- Relationship between MDG indicators
- Population trends/structures and MDG indicators
- Migration and MDGs
3I. - Population and Development, the Demographic
Window
4Population and Development and international
organizations
5The old and the new paradigms
- The link between population trends and
development. The former population growth vs
development debate which is the cause and
which is the consequence UN International
Conference on Population, and Population and
Development, before Cairo 1994. - The new paradigm interelated economic, social
and human rights issues in an integrated approach
to population and development, ICPD Cairo 1994 - - ICPD PoA (Programme of Action) 1994
- - MDGs 2000, adopted by the UN and 200 countries
6PD and the Demographic Window of Opportunity
- The demographic window theory is based on
analysis of emergent countries in East and
South-East Asia showing that population structure
is more important than population growth for
development. - Several names
- demographic window of opportunity (preferable)
- demographic window
- demographic dividend
7The Demographic window of opportunity
8The demographic window of opportunity
- With declining fertility, population growth
declines. - However, growth remains positive due to
population momentum. - BUT, birth cohorts size stabilizes and starts to
decline (while population is still growing). - A youth bulge appears.
- Thus, dependency ratios fall progressively,
reaching below 50 (2 adults for one dependent
(children lt 15 and elderly gt 65).
9Thailand 1960-2005
10Thailand demographic window
11- We see clearly
- - the stabilizing and shrinking basis of the
age-pyramid from 1980 - - The youth bulge appearing in 1990
- - The youth bulge moving upwards
- - The beginning of aging
- THEN,
- - Aging
12Thailand 2030-2050
13The two phases of the demographic window
- Recent works (Mason 2006, 2007) shows there are
two phases in the demographic window - The youth bulge increased ratio of workers to
population, increased qualification/productivity
of work force (young people are usually more
educated) - When the youth bulge reaches late adult ages,
children of youth bulgers have left the family,
resulting in increased savings that are favorable
to investments.
14The demographic window of opportunity
- The demographic window can last 2 or 3 decades.
- There is no fixed threshold in dependency rates
to define the demographix window - However, its impact is stronger when dependency
ratio is below 55 or 50. - Currently China, Thailand have dependency ratios
around 42 (Singapore 37).
15Demographic window in four S-E Asian countries,
1970-2050
16Dependency ratios in Africa and Asia
17The demographic window in Africa and Asia
- Some countries in East Asia and SE Asia are right
in the middle of the demographic window with
dependency ratios in the 40 to 45 range - Other countries in SE Asia are heading towards
the low point in dependency ratio (around 2020),
followed by South and Central Asia (from 2035) - Northern Africa is close to South Central Asia
minimum dependency ratio is projected to remain
higher (around 45) than in East Asia - Western and Eastern Africa would not show
dependency ratios below 50 before 2050 in medium
scenario - - Southern Africa has lower fertility and
dependency ratios, but the latter is also
influenced by the impact of AIDS
18Dependency ratios in a few African countries
19Fertility in Africa and Asia (TFR observed and
projected - medium scenario)
20Dependency ratios (medium and low fertiltiy
scenarios)
21The link between fertility and dependency/demograp
hic window
- The ranking of regions and sub-regions is very
close for fertility and dependency ratios as
expected, because the basis of the age-pyramid is
a direct result of fertility levels and children
under 15 are the major contributor to dependency
before aging takes place - Earlier and stronger fertility declines in low
scenario are associated with earlier demographic
window and lower dependency ratios below 50 from
2045 in Western and Eastern Africa. - - Reducing aging after the demographic window
can be done by stabilizing fertity at the
replacement level (if TFR does not decline under
2.1)
22Economic aspects
23Macro economic effects of the Demographic Window
- States have to spend less for services in
child/maternal health and education, due to
stable and then declinning children cohorts. - They can invest to improve quality of services,
train nurses/teachers, shift spendings from 1ary
to 2ary and 3ary education, - - They can develop infrastructures that will
attract foreign as well as domestic private
investors
24Micro economic effects of the Demographic Window
- - Households spend less on primary needs
(foodclothing for a large number of children). - They can spend in durable goods, services,
health, higher education of smaller number of
children - Mothers can work outside.
- - This help develop new sectors of economy.
- - Later, at higher adult ages, they can save
more.
25Demographic window of opportunity
- This works, ON CONDITION young adults of the
youth bulge can be employed, - which is dependent on legal and economic
environment investment policies, freedom of
trade, quality of infrastructures, qualification
of work force, social and political stability,
governance, human rights, gender equality.
26II. - The Millenium Development Goals
27The MDGs
- End Poverty and Hunger
- Universal Education
- Gender Equality
- Child Health
- Maternal Health
- Combat HIV/AIDS
- Environmental Sustainability
- Global Partnership
28The MDG galaxy
- 8 goals 20 targets and 60 indicators
- They are designed to address basic human needs
and rights as regards nutrition, access to paid
work, education, health, environment, partnership
for development,... - They are based on human rights
- Although there is no goal on governance,
governance is addressed consistently by various
UN agencies in the 5th UN Programme 2008-2011
29Types of indicators
- A useful approach is to separate indicators by
types - services availability indicators
- Net enrolment ratio in primary education,
- Proportion of births attended by skilled health
personnel, - Antenatal care coverage (at least 1 visit and 4
visits), - Proportion of population using an improved
drinking water source - Outcomes indicators
- Proportion of population below 1 (PPP) per day
- Employment-to-population ratio,
- Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds, women and men,
- Maternal mortality ratio,
- - Under-five mortality rate,
- NB Some indicators are not so clearly service or
outcome indicators (contraceptive prevalence
rate), or are not directly population related
(Proportion of species threatened with
extinction, debt service as a percentage of
exports of goods and services)
30Poverty is a corner stone of MDGs
- Analysis of disaggregated MDG indicators has
shown that the lowest quintile has the poorest
records in access to services and outcomes
(lowest skill attended deliveries, highest infant
and maternal mortality, lowest enrolment,
completed primary education and literacy) - Reducing poverty would result in improving most
of MDG indicators, and - thus, countries would progress toward MDG
attainment - But its not only about economy economic growth
does not always reduce poverty. - There is a need of pro-poor policies
31Relationship between poverty and Reproductive
Health MDGs indicators (1)
32Relationship between poverty and Reproductive
Health MDGs indicators (2)
33Population is also at the basis of most MDGs
- Population is present nearly everywhere in the
MDG process through poverty/hunger, health,
education, gender, environment indicators, and
rights based approach, - And so, many indicators are social and human
development indicators and MDGs are a extensive
approach to social, economic and human
development (well beyond HDI Human Development
Index that consists of only 3 indicators) - And technically population is the basis for MDG
costing and budgeting (UNDP)
34III. - The relationship between Population
Trends/structures and MDGs
35The positive effect of the demographic window on
service indicators
- Services in reproductive health, education are
linked with the number of births - As the demographic window reduces the number of
births, it is easier to increase service
coverage - Countries with high growth of birth cohorts face
three challenges - - Increase services to cope with increasing
cohort size - Increase services to increase coverage
- Improve quality of services
36The link between services and outcome indicators
37Correlations coefficients between MDGs indicators
(IMR and MMR) and various services indicators
(Pacific Island countries)
significant at plt0.05
38Relations between MDGs indicators
- IMR and MMR are closely correlated, when IMR is
high, MMR is also high. - Both are strongly negatively correlated with
access to services skilled birth attendants and
immunization, as well as improved water and
sanitation when services are low, IMR and MMR
are high. - When progress in services is slow, IMR and MMR
are high. - They are also strongly correlated with
literacy/employment when women education or
participation in formal sector are low, IMR and
MMR are high.
39The link between population and MDG indicators
40Relation between MDG attainment and population
and development(Pacific Island countries)
significant at plt0.05 significant at
plt0.10 (a) Proportion of population below
national poverty line
41Correlation coefficients of selected
socio-economic indicators with U5MR, MMR, and
progress to goals of reducing themcountries in
the ESCAP region
42The link between DW and MDG attainment
- In SE Asia, dependency ratio is correlated with
(among others) - Infant mortality rate (R20,575)
- Maternal mortality ratio (R20,751),
- Births attended by skilled health personal
(R20,871), - Proportion of children immunized against measles
(R20,691) - Net enrolment rate in primary education
(R20,919) - Contraceptive prevalence rate (R20,833)
43Infant mortality and dependency ratio (Northern
and Western Africa)
44Net enrolment in 1ary education and dependency
ratio (Northern and Western Africa)
45Migration and development, and MDG attainment
46Impact of migration on the demographic window
- Migration takes away young adults and reduces the
number of births - positive effect, - Migration increases dependency ratio - negative
effect, - Brain drain takes away the most qualified
(teachers, nurses, doctors) - negative effect.
47Migration, Development and MDGs
- Migration increases dependency and reduces
working ages, but workers are abroad sending
remittances. - The demographic window (demographic bonus)
seems not to be an issue for mass migration
countries. - But do remittances reach such level and stability
to make a sustainable economic system? Is the
MIRAB (MIgration, Remittances, Aid and
Bureaucracy) sustainable? - Still, the question is whether economic growth
can be based on low qualified migration. Asian
(Philippines, Pakistan) and Polynesian
emigration countries have low economic growth
48Health and education indicators
- Quality is essential to achieve low levels of
infant (IMR) and maternal (MMR) mortality, and
transitions from class 1 to 6 and 1ary to 2ary
education. - Brain drain affects sustainability and quality of
services staff shortages, low qualified staff. - This results in stagnating IMR and MMR - with
IMR levels between 12 per 1,000 and 20 per 1,000
in Polynesia, Palau and Fiji, while MDG target
for these countries is 10 per 1,000 or below. - In education, 1ary completion is low and children
end 1ary after several repetitions and are 2 or
more years late when entering 2ary many drop out
after class 6 or form 3.
49The use of remittances and MDGs
- Remittances can help reduce poverty
- They are mostly used for basic needs (food,
clothing, housing,) - But they are also used for education, health,
- They can be used for investment in smaller or
larger businesses, creating jobs - However, at the macro level, they may also
increase inflation, cost of living and raise
poverty lines
50The various uses of remittances and MDGs
- The many uses of remittances can improve various
MDG indicators of migration countries. - - personal consumption of durable goods or
in-kinds remittances, like telephones, cell
phones, computers and internet connection, -
Pacific countries with the largest expatriate
communities are also those with the highest use
of internet. - - payment of education/health of children left
behind or of relatives - - payment of health expenditures for parents
- - use of remittances for collective purposes
infrastructures (wells, improved toilets, sewage,
generator/solar panels), school books, medicine,
disaster relief after hurricanes, flooding,
earthquakes, - Support to social life church/cultural/sports/you
th associations, can have social impact and
effects on gender issues. - - Remittances used for investment or savings
contribute to employment generation and economic
growth.
51Migration and poverty
- MDG1 is directly related to the impact of
remittances on income distribution/poverty
reduction. - In the 1st phase of migration when mostly people
from richer households can migrate (individual
migration schemes), remittances tend to increase
income inequalities - However, there is poverty reduction if poor
households receive enough to be lifted out of
poverty. - In later phases, people from poorer households
also migrate (individual) and unqualified work
contracts (Asia) enable poorer maybe not the
poorest - people to migrate - - But, large inflow of remittances can raise
poverty lines by increasing the cost of
living/inflation (Pacific). - - Sending remittances can also increase poverty
among migrants households in host countries.
52Migration, remittances and MDG 6 and 7
- Migration results in labour shortages in
agriculture in origin countries, and remittances
lead to new consumption patterns. - Changes in diets and life styles have resulted in
epidemic level NCDs (diabetes, cardio-vascular
diseases, cancers) and NCDs in Polynesia and have
been included in MDG 6 by some countries. - Cars (not regularly serviced), chemicals,
electronics and other non recycled waste result
in more pollution of air, sea and fresh water
resources, impacting on MDG 7.
53Conclusion
54Population and Development and MDGs
- A healthy and educated population is a condition
of development. - This can be achieved through quality health and
education services for all. - This implies
- Maintain and increase coverage of services i.e.
coping with population growth and beyond, or
reducing population growth rate and fertility
rate to advance the demographic window. - Improve quality of services (infrastructures and
qualification of staff).
55Conditions to reap the benefits of the
demographic window
- GOOD GOVERNANCE
- Economic and investment friendly policies,
- Endorsement of international conventions,
- Rule of law and human rights,
- Growing and job creating economy,
- Reducing poverty through pro-poor policies
(economic growth does not necessarily mean
poverty reduction case of growth based on
export of raw materials)
56Thank you