Hydro- socio- meteoro- logy: Essential elements for flash flood mitigation and research

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Hydro- socio- meteoro- logy Essential elements
for flash flood mitigation and research

• Dr. Eve Gruntfest
• International Flash Flood Laboratory
• 11th Annual Lovell Distinguished Lecture
• October 19, 2009 San Marcos, TX

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Background - applied geographer

• Social scientist in world of engineers and
  physical scientists
• Geography professor at University of Colorado
  Colorado Springs for 27 years
• Research on flash floods and warning systems

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The Big Thompson Flood in Colorado 140 died July
31, 1976

• Who lived?
• Who died?
• Studied the behaviors that night
• Career socio/hydro/ meteoro - logist

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Today's presentation Four part mosaic

• International Flash Flood Laboratory
• Integrates academic, professional and
  governmental efforts to reduce the impacts of
  flash floods

Jack Lee age 6-8 1st place 2009
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Four parts

• Examples of hydro-socio-meteor-ology at work
• Emphasis on social science and recent flash
  floods
• Programs and People in Action WAS IS, SSWIM,
  Isabelle Ruin
• Institutional collaborators from outside /
  inside Texas
• Results from recent flash flood research Warning
  Project, YouTube study
• Necessity of hybrid approach
• Looking ahead to our workshop and our work

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water
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Why WAS IS? As an add on social scientist
always a few people would say after a talk ---
I want to do work that integrates meteorology
and societal impacts BUT

• I dont know how, and
• I dont know anyone else who
• does this kind of work

WASIS vision
To change the weather enterprise by
comprehensively and sustainably integrating
social science into meteorological and
hydrological research and practice
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WASIS mission building hydro-socio-metero logy
capacity

1. Build an interdisciplinary community of
   practitioners, researchers and stakeholders
   from the grassroots up dedicated to the
   integration of meteorology and hydrology and
   social science
2. Provide opportunities to learn and examine ideas,
   methods, and examples related to integrated
   weather-society work- including flash floods

• Tools qualitative methods, surveys, interviews
• Concepts speaking the same language, problem
  definition
• Topics intros to social sciences, vulnerability
  and resilience, roles of technology,
  communication and use of weather information

International Flash Flood Laboratory
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Social Science Woven Into Meteorology (SSWIM)
The National Weather Center Norman, OK Funded
by University of Oklahoma and NOAA
www.sswim.org Collaborate with International
Flash Flood Laboratory
International Flash Flood Laboratory
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SSWIMs three goals

• To weave social science into the activities of
  the National Weather Center and elsewhere not
  an add on
• 2. To earn a reputation as a center of social
  science research and practice in weather and
  climate work
• 3. To revolutionize the research to operations
  equation so its no longer top-down and all
  partners play equal roles decision-makers,
  forecasters, product designers and researchers

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SSWIMs objectives are innovative research and
capacity building

• by increasing the appreciation of the value of
  qualitative as well as quantitative approaches
  including archival, ethnographic, and
  participatory methods
• through partnerships with public, private, and
  academic sectors, including students,
  practitioners, and policymakers across the
  spectrum of stakeholders

International Flash Flood Laboratory
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Social scientists use methods that are rigorous
quantitative and qualitative ways to collect
data and are appropriate to the discipline,
research questions and study populations

• Interviews protocols questionnaires
• Structured
• Semi-structured
• Open interviews - i.e. stories
• Surveys systematically administered to a
  defined sample
• Direct observations researcher is embedded
  with group
• Participatory activities researcher
  participates with group
• Focus groups guided activities in group
• Text analysis breakdown of verbal or written
  texts
• Others

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International Flash Flood Laboratory
collaborators
Laboratoire d'étude des Transferts en Hydrologie
et Environnement Grenoble, France HYMeX
Hydrologic cycle in Mediterranean Experiment High
impact weather events and relation to climate
change impacts in the Mediterranean
region European and US project
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International Flash Flood Laboratory
collaborators - Director Konstantine P.
Georgakakos KGeorgakakos_at_hrc-lab.org University
of California San Diego
Hydrologic Research Center working with the
World Meteorological Organization
http//www.hrc-lab.org/index.php
Real-Time Data for Central America
Flash Flood Threat Index
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International Flash Flood Laboratory
collaborators

• SHAVE Project (Severe Hail Verification
  Experiment) National Severe Storms Laboratory
  bringing in social science social and physical
  verification
• National Weather Service Integrated Warning Team
  gatherings Kansas City, Omaha 2009

• Meteorologists
• News Media
• Hydrologists
• Emergency Managers
• Social Scientists

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International Flash Flood Laboratory
collaborators
International Hydrometeorology Analysis and
Forecasting Course 7-27 June 2008 Boulder, CO
21 days 2 hours social science
National Weather Service (international
activities office) World Meteorological
Organization NOAA FLASH FLOOD WORKSHOP 2006 March
13-17 San José, Costa Rica http//www.nws.noaa.gov
/iao/iao_FFW.php Presentations on line
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US flash flood challengesPost-wildfire flash
floods CaliforniaCollaborations between local
governments, US Geological Survey, National
Weather Service

• Debris flow warnings

F. Orr LA Times 9/16
LA Times R. Gauthier 9/14
R.Gauthier
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Warnings Do these maps help?
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Mapped low water crossings in Austin,
TXwww.ci.austin.tx.us/disasterready/lowwater.htm
(are these making a difference?)
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Extreme Atlanta flooding September 24-26, 2009
gt15 inches of rain in some places, problems with
extreme rainfall, creeks cresting feet above
historical record highs 10 deathsCalls to
action - were they severe enough? Do they matter?
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How do we address nuisance events vs
catastrophic events? Height of the 1997 Fort
Collins, CO flash flood
International Flash Flood Laboratory
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WAS ISer example - Daniel Nietfeld National
Weather Service Scientific Operations officer -
Omaha

• Redefining job to include social and
• physical sciences
• Change questions asked
• Who will be impacted?
• Are people awake/sleeping/ driving/coaching?
• What has happened up to this point?
• Have there already been fatalities?
• What are the TV stations saying?
• Have earlier storms been missed?
• Always brings stakeholders to meetings attends
  THEIR meetings school superintendents, highway
  patrol, hospital administrators

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WAS IS er Dr. Isabelle Ruin New time/space
analysis hydro-socio-meteoro-logy
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Key research questions and tasks

• What social and natural factors account for
  spatio-temporal distribution and severity of
  storm dynamics, catchment size and land use?
• Determine more effective ways to collect
  incident data during flash floods
• Understand human risk perception and human
  behavior before, during, and after flash flood
  events
• Create and use innovative models to further
  understand the hydro-meteorological circumstances
  behind flash floods
• Determine forms of communication most effective
  in informing people about the imminent danger of
  flash floods
• Integrate the physical and social sciences using
  GIS

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A Case Study of the March 2008 Flash Floods in
Southwestern Missouri

• Daniel Pollak and Isabelle Ruin Summer 2009

Source of Photo http//press.weather.com/content/
ss220-erin-midwest_flood-mike_rescue.jpg
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Data and methods for Missouri study

• Data Used
• Rainfall
• Stage IV Radar-derived
• Hydrology
• Catchments and Streams
• Stream Gauges
• Flood Impacts
• NWS Flood Reports
• Media
• Low Water Crossings
• Auxiliary Spatial Data
• Political boundaries
• Cities, Urban areas,
• Elevation
• Roads

• Spatial and Temporal Analysis
• Geographic Information Systems (GIS) ? A
  computer-based system for management, mapping,
  analysis, and visualization of geo-referenced
  data
• Integration of physical and social data from
  diverse sources
• Qualitative Analysis
• Expert Interviews
• Statistical Analysis
• How much rain

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Database development Flood report data in Missouri

• Quality of flood reports are inconsistent
  variety of sources

• Many of the floods reports had missing data
• Many reports were thus deemed vague.
• Many of the locations on the map were not defined
  correctly
• Points had to be manually corrected

Point 1 moved 2km NW
Point 2 moved 1.2km ESE
Point 3 vague
Point 4 vague
Point 5 moved 2.3 km NNW
Point 6 moved 10 km SE
Point 7 moved 3.2 km NW
Point 8 moved 4.8 km NW
Point 9 moved .25 km E
Point 10 moved 9.6 km NW
Locations of all 135 flood reports
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• New collaboration
• Mapping and observing driver
• behavior at low water crossings in
• Missouri
• Cameras
• Car counting

Losing job known risk Driving through flood
unknown risk Warnings are received and believed
but people think they HAVE to GO
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Learn from post-event investigations DELUGE

• Organize systematic and standardized data
  collection
• Disasters Evolving Lessons Using Global
  Experience

• Focus on post-event field studies for floods to
  maximize interactions between social scientists,
  hydrologists and meteorologists
• New guidelines on post-event investigations for
  use by integrated teams of physical scientists,
  social scientists, and practitioners

FIELD Hydro-socio-meteoro-logists needed

• Build a common culture and common research
  questions
• Foster international and interdisciplinary
  collaborations

International Flash Flood Laboratory
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VULNERABILITY FACTORS INDICATORS
Socio demographic and economic attributes Demography, Land use, cohesion of social structures, land values Population densityBuilding densityAssociation densityAge, Gender, Professions
Psycho-socio-cultural factors Hazard knowledgeRisk perception, press coverage
Warning systems, Crisis and recovery process Lead-time, Spacial accuracyEmergency response qualityCommunication relevency
Public policy and risk management System of actorsDecision making process
Practices at different scales (individuals, meso-scale) Travel patterns and mobility evolution and adaptation
Infrastructures quality and accessibility Type of building, protection structures
Space and time circumstancies of the event Time of the day / nightUrban / rural area

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2007 was Texas deadliest year Roy Sedwick
Certified floodplain manager, Lower Colorado
River Authority Sr. Floodplain Coordinator HYDRO-S
OCIO-METERO-LOGIST

• Flood and High-Flow deaths
• 80 occurred in daylight
• 90 swimming, boating, or
• walking in high flows

People underestimate the power of moving water
overestimate the ability to survive

• Flash flood deaths
• 80 in the dark
• 90 under flash flood
• watch/warning

People underestimate how fast a flash flood
develops and overestimate ability to recognize in
time to react
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2007 flood-related drownings by type of event,
Texas (from Sedwick)
Type of Event of Deaths Percent
Flash Flood 42 67
High Water-Related 18 28
River Flood 3 5
Total 63 100
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Statistics thanks to hard work (no easy
database) -- 41 female, 59 male
Age range 2 85 years
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Flood-related drownings by circumstances Texas
(2007) (Sedwick)
Circumstances of Deaths Percent
Vehicle 35 56
Walk/Play 13 21
Mobile Home 4 6
Boating 3 5
Swimming 5 8
Rafting/Tubing 2 3
Cave 1 2
Total 63 100
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Circumstances of vehicle related drownings by
time of incident most people don't die w h y?
don't focus only on the dead
Estimated Time Frequency Percent
Midnight - 6am 11 31
6am - noon 3 9
Noon - 6pm 2 6
6pm - midnight 17 48
Unknown 2 6
Total 35 100
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Texas flood activities - Specific tasks

• Add flood safety information to Texas Drivers
  Handbook and add flood safety questions on exam
• Add flood safety to drivers education school
  programs and defensive driving
• Require flood safety training for school bus
  drivers
• Work with Texas Department of Transportation to
  activate digital highway signs on all interstate
  highways
• Develop Turn Around Dont Drown public service
  announcements and video
• ASSESS baseline awareness and EVALUATE
  effectiveness of public awareness campaigns
  target particular populations include in budget
  !

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From CoCoRahs 10/14/09 cocorahs.blogspot.com
growing real-time grass roots national rainfall
network
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Challenge Holding car companies accountable of
confronting ads from car companies
Ad says Warning use the cup holders at your
own risk
How to convince people they are better Wet than
Dead?
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Before our Warning Project funded by the National
Science Foundation the last major research on
warnings was done in the 1970s

• What about cell phones, Internet,
• private and public sources of
• information?
• How are diverse urban
• populations interpreting
• warnings?

International Flash Flood Laboratory
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Our 2003-2008 National Science Foundation project
aimed to

• Evaluate impacts of
• Demographic change
• New and different
• sources of information
• Test conventional wisdom about
• False alarms/ close calls

International Flash Flood Laboratory
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What we know about warnings Public response
components

• Hear/receive
• Understand
• Believe
• Personalize
• Decide to act
• Respond

The warning process is complex
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Warning project methodology
Mail survey 6000 surveys sent to residents in
or near the floodplain 1017 surveys returned

• Survey Development
• 1 year
• Input from officials and hazards researchers
• Survey format
• Likert scale and true/false
• Demographic questions
• Experience with flash floods and trauma
• Surveys in English Spanish to selected
  respondents
• Survey is available for follow up studies

International Flash Flood Laboratory
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• Where do people get their weather information?
• What is the best way for officials to warn you
  about a flash flood?

International Flash Flood Laboratory
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All sources of weather information used
n935
International Flash Flood Laboratory
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The best way for officials to warn you about a
flash flood?
N1020
International Flash Flood Laboratory
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I take flash flood warnings seriously
92
8
n1017
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I would drive through an intersection with six
inches of water running across it
63 say they would NOT DRIVE through it
Is this good or bad news?
International Flash Flood Laboratory
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Realizing its difficult to predict flash floods,
I prefer more warnings even if there are more
false alarms or close calls
N 1047
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Officials are too sensitive to the possibility of
flash flooding
N 1031
International Flash Flood Laboratory
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• Warning project findings
• Weather information requirements of each user
  community are highly specialized -- there is no
  ONE PUBLIC
• Different languages, capabilities, economic
  status
• The weather research community has not focused on
  the individual needs of specific user communities
• There is no ideal lead time
• RECOGNITION THAT
• STUDIES OF BEHAVIOR
• MAY TELL US MORE THAN
• RESEARCH ON PERCEPTIONS

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What were they thinking? Using to observe driver
behavior crossing flooded roads

• Cedar League Geography and Environmental Studies
  University of Colorado at Colorado Springs 2009

• Benefits
• 1) Free access to data - no temporal, spatial and
  economic limitations
• 2) YouTube provides user profiles age,
  location, hobbies
• 3) Comments and video ratings are often left by
  other YouTubers
• 4) YouTubers may be contacted by the researcher

International Flash Flood Laboratory
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Quantitative analysis

• Survey questions
• Purpose of trip
• Why YouTube
• Sources for weather info
• Awareness of warnings
• Vehicle type
• Familiarity with location
• Closed roads or require rescue
• Drive again in similar conditions
• Factors influencing YouTubers to drive in flood
  waters
• Factors influencing YouTubers to avoid flooded
  roads

International Flash Flood Laboratory
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Results - demographics

• 52 out of 100 surveys were returned for a total
  response rate of 54
• 90 percent male, 10 female
• 81 were aged 18-35, 19 were aged 36-55
• 85 white, 15 other
• 75 completed at least some college

Respondents represented 18 different states
International Flash Flood Laboratory
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Qualitative analysis

• Content Analysis Variables were first recorded
  on a spreadsheet after viewing the videos, and
  used to aid in developing the online
  questionnaire
• Gender
• Approximate age
• Passengers
• Vehicle type
• Driving conditions
• Presence of warning signs or officials

International Flash Flood Laboratory
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YouTube study limitations

• 1) Non-representative sample
• 2) Non-random sample
• 3) Videos are not based on the same weather
  event, so results are less comparable between
  respondents
• Despite its limitations, this study and its
  methods are useful for observational research in
  hazards and other geographical research

International Flash Flood Laboratory
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Purpose of trip
Texas State University International Flash Flood
Laboratory
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Intentional/situational

• Intentional drivers purpose was to film the
  flood water, or to drive in the flood water (for
  fun). 59 (n31)
• Situational drivers purpose of trip was based
  upon their current situation, like driving to or
  returning from work. 41 (n21)

International Flash Flood Laboratory
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Weather warnings

• Was a NWS warning or watch in effect?
• Yes 61 No 15
  Not Sure 25
• Did the warning influence your decision to drive
  that day?
• 87 said No (n28)
• Do you pay attention to warnings?
• 64 always or usually
• 23 sometimes
• 13 rarely or never
• The watch or warningMade me curious as to what
  it looked like around town Motivated me to go
  and have fun!
• It just made me want to go driving even more
  because I knew there was some crazy stuff to be
  seen and manipulate.

International Flash Flood Laboratory
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Vehicle type

• 62 were driving a truck or SUV (n32)
• 38 were driving a car or van (n20)
• Confidence in the vehicle had a strong influence
  to cross for truck and SUV drivers (p0.003),
  compared to car and van drivers.
• Survey Comments
• I love driving where others cant I am a
  mudder, I love doing things others would never
  think of in a car.
• I saw about six cars break down trying to get
  through it, and I thought it would be fun to be
  the one to make it through.

International Flash Flood Laboratory
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Driving on closed roads
24 admitted to driving on closed roads
(n12) All were males between the ages
18-35 Believed the roads were not dangerous (p
0.023) Pay less attention to NWS warnings
Leagues study reaffirms what Ruin found It will
take more than better information to change
driver behavior in flash floods
International Flash Flood Laboratory
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Most academic programs foster uni disciplinary
approach to atmospheric or hydrologic aspects

• Academic requirements are limiting within majors
• Students demanding more comprehensive approaches
• Geography departments are accommodating
• Interdisciplinary degrees are possible
• communication/meteorology
• meteorology/geography

There are exceptions.
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Dr. Hatim Sharif Universityof Texas at San
Antonio

• Ph.D. environmental engineering hydrology
• Invited social scientists to his engineering
  classes
• Participates in community mitigation activities
• Masters in Public Health

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International Flash Flood Laboratory metrics for
success

• Good data and sustained interdisciplinary archive
  of flash flood information
• New sustained partnerships
• New hybrid social/physical scientists/engineers
• Reduced losses
• ALL OF THE ABOVE

International Flash Flood Laboratory
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Reviewing the presentation's four parts

• Hydro-socio-meteor-ology at work
• Programs and people in action WAS IS, SSWIM,
  Isabelle Ruin
• Institutional collaborators from outside /
  inside Texas
• Emphasis on social science and recent flash
  floods
• Results from recent flash flood research Warning
  Project, YouTube study
• Necessity of hybrid approach
• Looking ahead to our workshop and our work

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• What did the most influential players in flash
  flood research and practice look like prior to
  todays workshop?

International Flash Flood Laboratory
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Hydro-socio-meteoro-logists are NOT the same
people with new models or gadgets!
International Flash Flood Laboratory
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IFFL partners are changing the uni-dimensional
culture
International Flash Flood Laboratory
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Hydro-socio-meteoro-logy occurs when stovepipes
are not the model
Local Communities
Private forecasters Environmental groups
National Weather Service hydrologists
Urban Drainage Districts Anthropologists
Universities International Agencies Geographers
Broadcast meteorologists Utilities
Research Centers
National Weather Service meteorologists
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Flash floods Recurring problem plenty of work
for International Flash Flood Laboratory
Louisville 8/5/2009
AP Photo/ News Record, H. Scott Hoffmann
Greensboro, NC 6/03/2009
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THANKS TO Dr. Pam Showalter for her vision and
hard work to bring us all together today and
from now on in sustainable ways Dr. Isabelle
Ruin for continuing to inspire applied flash
flood research in the US and in EuropeAll of
YOU who are committed to reducing flood losses
across agencies, geographic boundaries, and
disciplines
Natalie Zook Age 9-11 1st place
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We're in it for the long haul and we will be
creative
Special thanks to Roy Sedwick for decades of work
to collect data, reduce losses, and increase
awareness of the flash flood hazards in Texas and
in the US
International Flash Flood Laboratory
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More possibilities under the International Flash
Flood Laboratory umbrella

• More local workshops on data collections or
  learning from experiences
• Bringing in more associations, agencies,
  companies, universities, local governments
• New courses in flash flood mitigation that
  emphasize
• Hydrology, meteorology and social science methods
• Research evaluating program effectiveness

TODAY we will add to this list (funding
possibilities?)
International Flash Flood Laboratory
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The James and Marilyn Lovell Center for
Environmental Geography and Hazards Research, and
theInternational Flash Flood Laboratory welcome
our workshop registrants, who represent the
following entitiesArmy Corps of Engineers
Fort Worth District Hydrology and Hydraulics
SectionBexar County Infrastructure
ServicesCapital Area Council of Governments
Homeland SecurityCity of Llano Building and
Code EnforcementCity of New BraunfelsCity of
San Antonio Fire/EMS, and the Office of
Emergency ManagementCivil Air PatrolCooperative
Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies
and University of Oklahoma Social Science Woven
Into MeteorologyDavid Ford Consulting
EngineersFayette County Office of Emergency
ManagementGuadalupe-Blanco River Authority
EngineeringHalff Associates, Inc.Harris County
Flood Control DistrictHays County Offices of
Environmental Health and Emergency Management,
and Dept. of Resource Protection, Transportation,
Planning High Sierra Electronics, Inc.KTBC-TV
FOX 7-Austin NewsLower Colorado River
AuthorityNational Center for Atmospheric
Research Institute for the Study of Society and
EnvironmentNational Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration National Weather
Service--Austin-San Antonio, Houston/Galveston,Ne
ws8Austin NewsWest Gulf River Forecast Center,
Weather Forecast Office (Fort Worth), Southern
Region Headquarters National Geodetic
SurveyStephen F. Austin State University
Department of Social and Cultural AnalysisSutron
CorporationTexas AM University Department of
Atmospheric Sciences, the Conrad Blucher
Institutes Texas Spatial Reference CenterTexas
Association of Counties Information Technology,
the County Information ProjectTexas Department
of State Health Services Environmental and
Injury Epidemiology Toxicology UnitTexas
Floodplain Management Association Executive
OfficeTexas State University-San Marcos
Departments of Anthropology, Geography, the
School of Journalism Mass CommunicationUniversi
ty of Texas-San Antonio Civil and Environmental
EngineeringTexas Water Development Board
National Flood Insurance ProgramWilliamson
County Office of Emergency Management
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Flash flood references

• Environmental Hazards 2007 -- Volume 7
• C. Benight, E.Gruntfest, M. Hayden, L. Barnes
  Trauma and short-fuse weather warning perceptions
• S. Drobot C. Benight, E. Gruntfest Risk factors
  for driving into flooded roads
• M. Hayden, S. Drobot, S. Radil, C. Benight, E.
  Gruntfest, L. Barnes Information sources for
  flash flood warnings in Denver, CO and Austin, TX
• I.Ruin, J-C. Gaillard, C. Lutoff How to get
  there? Assessing motorists flash flood risk
  perception on daily itineraries

Clark County Regional Flood Control
District http//www.ccrfcd.org
International Flash Flood Laboratory