PPA 691

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PPA 691 Seminar in Public Policy Analysis

• Lectures 34 Problem Structuring

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Nature of Policy Problems

• Problem structuring, which is a continuously
  recurring phase of policy inquiry in which
  analysts search among competing problem
  formulations of different stakeholders, is no
  doubt the most important activity performed by
  policy analysts.
• It is so important because policy analysts seem
  to fail more often because they solve the wrong
  problem than because they get the wrong solution
  to the right problem.

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Nature of Policy Problems

• Beyond problem solving.
• Policy analysis is a dynamic, multilevel process
  in which methods of problem structuring take
  priority over methods of problem solving (see
  figure).

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Priority of Problem Structuring in Policy Analysis
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Nature of Policy Problems

• Beyond problem solving.
• Distinctions among problem-related processes.
• Problem sensing versus problem structuring.
• Problem structuring versus problem solving.
• Problem resolving versus problem unsolving and
  problem dissolving.
• Characteristics of problems.
• Interdependence of policy problems (policy
  messes).
• Analytic versus holistic approaches.
• Subjectivity of policy problems.
• Artificiality of policy problems.
• Dynamics of policy problems.

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Nature of Policy Problems

• Characteristics of problems (contd.)
• In short, systems of problems (messes) cannot be
  decomposed into independent subsets without
  running the risk of producing the right solution
  to the wrong problem.
• The whole is greater (qualitatively different)
  than the sum of its parts.
• A recognition of the interdependence,
  subjectivity, artificiality, and dynamics of
  policy problems alerts us to the possible
  unanticipated consequences that may follow from
  policies based on the right solution to the wrong
  problem.

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Nature of Policy Problems

• Problems versus issues.
• If policy problems are really systems of
  problems, then policy issues are equally complex.
• Policy issues reflect not only conflict over
  courses of actions, but over definitions of the
  problem.

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Nature of Policy Problems
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Nature of Policy Problems

• Problems versus issues.
• Major issues.
• Those encountered at highest levels of government
  within and between federal, state, and local
  jurisdictions.
• Involve questions of agency mission.
• Secondary issues.
• Located at the level of agency programs at the
  federal, state, and local levels.
• The setting of program priorities and the
  definition of target groups and beneficiaries.

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Nature of Policy Problems

• Problems versus issues.
• Functional issues.
• Located at both the program and project levels.
• Involve questions of budget, finance, and
  procurement.
• Minor issues.
• Located at the level of specific projects.
• Involve questions of personnel, staffing,
  employee benefits, vacation times, working hours,
  and standard operating procedures.

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Nature of Policy Problems

• Problems versus issues.
• Strategic policies are policies where the
  consequences are relatively irreversible.
• Operational polices are policies where the
  consequences are relatively reversible.

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Nature of Policy Problems

• Three classes of policy problems.
• Well-structured.
• Prototype completely computerized decision
  problems.
• Moderately structured.
• Prototype prisoners dilemma.
• Ill-structured.
• Prototype most important problems.

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Nature of Policy Problems
ELEMENT STRUCTURE OF PROBLEM STRUCTURE OF PROBLEM STRUCTURE OF PROBLEM
ELEMENT Well structured Moderately Structured Ill Structured
Decision maker(s) One or few One or few Many
Alternatives Limited Limited Unlimited
Utilities (values) Consensus Consensus Conflict
Outcomes Certainty or risk Uncertainty Unknown
Probabilities Calculable Incalculable Incalculable
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Problem Structuring in Policy Analysis

• The requirements for solving ill-structured
  problems demand that the analyst take an active
  role in defining the problem.

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Problem Structuring in Policy Analysis

• Creativity in problem structuring.
• The product of the analysis is sufficiently novel
  that most people could not or would not have
  arrived at the same solution
• The process of analysis is sufficiently
  unconventional that it involves the modification
  or rejection of previous accepted ideas
• The process of analysis requires sufficiently
  high motivation and persistence that analysis
  takes place with high intensity or over long
  periods of time

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Problem Structuring in Policy Analysis

• Creativity in problem structuring (contd.).
• The product of analysis is regarded as valuable
  by analysts, policymakers, and other
  stakeholders, since it provides an appropriate
  solution to the problem And.
• The problem initially posed is so ambiguous,
  value, and ill defined that part of the task is
  to formulate the problem itself.

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Problem Structuring in Policy Analysis

• Phases of problem structuring.
• Problem search.
• Problem definition.
• Problem specification.
• Problem sensing.

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Problem Structuring in Policy Analysis
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Problem Structuring in Policy Analysis

• Errors of the third type (EIII).
• How well do the substantive and formal problems
  correspond to the original problem situation?
• If most problem situations are messes, then
  models should reflect complexity.
• Types of errors.
• Type I rejecting the null hypothesis when it is
  true.
• Type II accepting the null hypothesis when it
  is false.
• Type III solving the wrong problem.

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Types of Policy Models

• Policy models are simplified representations of
  selected aspects of a problem situation
  constructed for specific purposes.
• By definition, they are artificial constructs.
• Descriptive models.
• The purpose of descriptive models is to explain
  and/or predict the causes and consequences of
  policy choices.
• Used to monitor the outcomes of policy actions
  and to forecast performance.

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Types of Policy Models

• Normative models.
• Explain and predict, but also to provide rules
  and recommendations for optimizing some utility
  or value.
• Example compound interest.

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Forms of Policy Models

• Verbal models.
• Expressed in everyday language.
• The equivalent of substantive problems.
• Limitation the reasons for recommendations and
  predictions may be hidden.
• Symbolic models.
• Use mathematical symbols to describe
  relationships among key variables believed to
  characterize a problem. The premises must be
  made explicit.

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Forms of Policy Models
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Forms of Policy Models

• Procedural models.
• Represent dynamic relationships among variables
  believed to characterize a policy problem.
• Example
• Decision tree.

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Methods of Problem Structuring

• Boundary analysis (used to estimate boundaries of
  metaproblem).
• Saturation sampling.
• Elicitation of problem representations.
• Boundary estimation.
• Classificational analysis.
• Uses logical division and logical classification.
• Criteria.
• Substantive relevance.
• Exhaustiveness.
• Disjointness.
• Consistency.
• Hierarchical distinctiveness.

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Methods of Problem Structuring

• Hierarchy analysis.
• Possible clauses, plausible causes, and
  actionable causes.
• Uses same rules as classificational analysis.
• Synectics.
• Personal analogies.
• Direct analogies.
• Symbolic analogies.
• Fantasy analogies.

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Methods of Problem Structuring

• Brainstorming.
• Groups should be composed of knowledgeable
  subjects.
• Idea generation and idea evaluation should be
  kept separate.
• Atmosphere should be open and permissive.
• Idea-evaluating should only begin after
  idea-generating has ceased.
• At the end of idea-evaluating, ideas should be
  prioritized and incorporated into a proposal that
  contains a conceptualization of the problem and
  its potential solutions.

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Methods of Problem Structuring

• Multiple perspective analysis.
• Technical perspective.
• Organizational perspective.
• Personal perspective.
• Assumptional analysis.
• Stakeholder identification.
• Assumption surfacing.
• Assumption challenging.
• Assumption pooling.
• Assumption synthesis.

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Methods of Problem Structuring

• Argumentation mapping.
• Assessing probability and plausibility of policy
  argument warrants.