FAO presentation on commodity trade development

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FAO presentation on commodity trade development
FAO presentation on commodity trade development
Helga Josupeit Rome July 2007 INFOFISH Technical
and Advisory Board Meeting, Kuala Lumpur, 27.
August 2007

• Helga Josupeit
• Rome
• July 2007
• INFOFISH Technical and Advisory Board Meeting,
  Kuala Lumpur, 27. August 2007

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World Fish Production
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World Projections -Scenario 1-
World Projections -Scenario 1-
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Fish exports
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Fish Exports in Value (2005)
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Commodity Summary

• Shrimp
• Tuna
• Groundfish
• Catfish and Pangasius
• Cephalopods

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Commodity Summary

• Shrimp
• Tuna
• Groundfish
• Catfish and Pangasius
• Cephalopods

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Shrimp market in turmoil

• WTO ruled in favour of Ecuador against US anti
  dumping duty
• effective ban by FDA on Chinese shrimp imports.
  The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on
  28.6.2007
• As a result, Thai shrimp prices went up,
• Chinese products are expected to flood the EU and
  Japanese market, leading to price declines there.

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Commodity Summary

• Shrimp
• Tuna
• Groundfish
• Catfish and Pangasius
• Cephalopods

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USA imports of canned tuna by supplier (1000
tonnes)
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Whole Yellowfin Prices - Italy
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Whole Skipjack Prices - Thailand
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Never so few tuna around

• High fuel prices
• Less tuna available due to environmental reasons
• Prices of raw material sky high
• Consumer interest good in EU and Japan, but
  declining in the USA

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Commodity Summary

• Shrimp
• Tuna
• Groundfish
• Catfish and Pangasius
• Cephalopods

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More Alaska pollack leads to pressure on European
prices

• buoyant situation for Alaska pollock.
• Imports in several markets increased
• sales from the USA to EU markets are up 30
• prices to European processors are more
  competitive this year.
• As usual the status of the Alaska pollack market
  will influence all other groundfish products in
  the European market, which have already started
  to tend downward.

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Summary (groundfish)

• Groundfish catches went down dramatically
• However, trade increased sharply, due to
  outsourcing of the processing
• China emerged as the main groundfish processing
  country in recent years
• Unit value showed a tendency of stabilization
  during the past decade

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Commodity Summary

• Shrimp
• Tuna
• Groundfish
• Catfish and Pangasius
• Cephalopods

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Catfish import boom in early 2007

• The impact of the US import restriction is yet to
  be felt in the catfish market.
• more consumption of domestic catfish and to
  higher imports of pangasius from Viet Nam and
  Thailand.
• Some positive influence on the tilapia trade
  here it is interesting to note that tilapia from
  China was not banned is likely.
• Higher prices in the whole industrial whitefish
  sector are forecast for the US market.
• On the contrary, additional supplies of catfish
  and pangasius will reach the European market,

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Vietnamese Pangasius exports
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US catfish and pangasius imports
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Summary (catfish and pangasius)

• aquaculture production of catfish and pangasius
  is booming
• trade increased strongly, especially with imports
  into EU and USA
• China emerged as the main catfish supplying
  country recently in the USA
• While Viet Nam dominates catfish/pangasius trade
  in EU
• Prices very stable

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Commodity Summary

• Shrimp
• Tuna
• Groundfish
• Catfish and Pangasius
• Cephalopods

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Squid plentiful

• Good Argentine Illex landings affecting prices
  both for Illex products and for competing squid
  products.
• Weaker prices are reported for jumbo squid tubes
• Imports into Italy and Spain strong

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Octopus market good supplied

• Octopus market normalizes further
• octopus prices in Japan declined in the course of
  the opening months of the year,
• In return, demand was quite good, while arrivals
  were plentiful.
• Further price declines are likely to come, once
  the summer octopus catch from the Central Eastern
  Atlantic reaches the Japanese market.

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Conclusions

• The importance of aquaculture in overall fish
  supply is growing
• In a not too far away future (2010 or at the
  latest 2020), aquaculture will overtake capture
  fisheries for food fish supply

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Conclusions

• The growth of aquaculture for high value species
  (shrimp, seabass, seabream, salmon) has had an
  important impact on international fish trade
• In recent years, species of lower value (tilapia
  and catfish) also entered successfully
  international trade

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Conclusions

• Unit value of cultured species is going down when
  aquaculture starts
• However, there are signs of stabilization in
  price levels for those species where the industry
  is more mature

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Conclusions

• Many new species will be cultured in the coming
  years
• Mainly high value species for markets in
  developed countries, but the bulk of production
  can be foreseen in developing countries
• Aquaculture species will dominate trade in the
  years to come

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• Thank you