PowerPoint Presentation - Management Development Program

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You walk into a room and find Karen and Joe dead.
The only evidence at the scene is some broken
glass and a puddle of water. How did Karen and
Joe die?
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Part I Why LS 1?
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Dr. Ann Harper Fender
Mary Wollstonecraft, A Vindication of the Rights
of Women
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This course was not awful like I was
warned. 2003 LS 1 Student
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LS 1 was my favorite course. I had both a fun
and enlightening time in LS 1. LS 1 made me
much more aware of the world around me and helped
me engage in critical thinking.
2003 LS 1 Students
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My writings have virtues that cannot be
disentangled from the faults ... there is a way
of being wrong which is also sometimes
necessarily right. Edward Abbey, 1967
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THINK!
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THINK!
Also think about HOW you think
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The Importance of Fundamentals
?
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Part II - Ways of Knowing (Fixing Belief)

• Induction an argument from a random sample to a
  population
• Deduction an argument from a population to a
  random sample

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Ah, Chocolate
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More Chocolate
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And Even More Chocolate
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Conclusion
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At Mrs. Londons
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But Then Arlene Lesher Ruined It
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Charles Sanders Peirce Fixing Belief
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Charles Sanders Peirce Fixing Belief

• Beliefs (cling to) and Doubts (try to eliminate)
• Beliefs ? Actions
• Irritation of Doubt ? Inquiry
• Methods of Fixing Belief
• Tenacity
• Authority
• a priori Agreeable to Reason / Induction
• Science
• Science ? Reals and Truth (only way to settle
  opinion)
• All investigators will eventually converge on the
  same truth in the infinite long run

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Some Examples From My Childhood

• Tenacity
• Authority
• a priori Reason
• Science

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Peirce Thinks We Must Choose Science

• Other three methods have some merits
• But Peirce thinks we should want opinions to
  coincide with facts therefore we must ultimately
  choose science
• If a person seeks to avoid the truth, s/he is in
  a sorry state of mind indeed.

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Other Thoughts on Fixing Belief Science

• Charles Darwin Painstaking observation leads to
  knowing
• Thomas Kuhn Normal science is based upon past
  scientific achievements and shared paradigms
  (common sets of assumptions) there is a
  universal scientific language as well as a
  cumulative nature to knowing
• Stephen Jay Gould Knowledge is constantly
  changing Facts are always reassessed,
  reinterpreted, reconfigured, etc.
• Frank Conroy Understanding is both a conscious
  and unconscious process can take years and is
  often triggered by seemingly unrelated events
• Benjamin Whorf Edward Sapir Culture and
  language shape each other and structure the way
  we perceive the world thus there isnt a single
  reality

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Some Questions to Think About

• Are Reals really independent of opinion?
• Can all questions be answered with science?

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Part III Problem Analysis and Decision Making 101
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The Rational Decision Making Process
Define/Diagnose The Problem orIssue
Develop Alternative Solutions
Evaluate Alternatives
Choose Best Alternative and Implement It
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Are Decision Making (Problem Analysis and
Solving) Processes Completely Rational?
Some recent examples

• Mate Choice College Choice
• 800 Classes Alarm Clocks
• Traffic Patterns The Energy Bill
• 9/11 Response

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Joshs Mate Choice Discussion
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800 Classes
?
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Mohan Stuck in Traffic in Boston
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9/11
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Problem Analysis and Problem Solving Perils

• Dont have complete information
• Focus on symptoms not the core problem or issue
• Differences in underlying assumptions and beliefs
• There isnt a problem or issue, rather there are
  many interrelated problems and issues

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As a Result

• Decision making is not a rational process. Too
  many issues, too many choices, not enough time,
  other resource limitations, cognitive
  limitations, etc. Thus, our rationality is
  bounded.
• These limitations lead to satisficing behavior as
  opposed to maximizing behavior (college choice,
  job choice, mate choice?)
• S/he who defines the problem or issue has just as
  much, if not more, power than s/he who solves it!
  (energy issue, Iraq, academic rigor)

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Decision Making Problems in Groups

• Group Polarization Groups tend to make more
  extreme decisions individuals in group not as
  accountable

Glenbrook High Powder Puff Hazing
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Decision Making Problems in Groups

• Groupthink Team cohesiveness leads members to
  strive for unanimity rather than realistically
  appraise alternative courses of action (Space
  Shuttle disasters, Iraq?)

• Group is highly cohesive
• Group faces external threat
• Group is isolated from outsiders
• Self-censorship of dissenting ideas
• Excessive negative stereotyping
• Unquestioned morality

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Decision Making Problems in Groups

• Escalation of Commitment Self-justification,
  gamblers fallacy, perceptual blinders, closing
  costs, etc., lead people to continue down a path
  of failure (Relationships, Vietnam, Building the
  Concorde)

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Garbage Can Model of Decision Making
Issues
Feelings
Its only rational that decision making processes
are not rational! BUT, understanding the
pitfalls leads us closer to rationality
Solutions
Problems
Luck
Participants

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Show up on time!Be prepared to think and
debate.Dont be scared of the irritation of
doubt and be open to changing your beliefs.
Parting Shots