Monitoring and Modeling Land-Use Change in the Pearl River Delta, China, Using Satellite Imagery and Socioeconomic Data

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Monitoring and Modeling Land-Use Change in the
Pearl River Delta, China, Using Satellite Imagery
and Socioeconomic Data
Robert K. Kaufmann Harvard University January 29,
2003
http//www.bu.edu/cees/readmoreRK.html
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Modeling and Forecasting Effects of Land-Use
Change in China Based on Socioeconomic Drivers
Boston University Department of
Geography Principal Investigator Robert K.
Kaufmann Co-Investigators Curtis E.
Woodcock Dennis G. Dye
Karen C. Seto Chinese Collaborators Lu
Jinfa, Institute of Geography CAS Li Xiaowen,
IRSA Wang Tongsan, Economic Forecasting
Center Huang Xiuhua, IRSA Liang
Youcai, State Information Center
Funded by NASA LCLUC-NAG5-6214
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Why Pearl River Delta, Guangdong Province?

• 1988 - 1996 real GDP growth 350-550
• Major agricultural region and national leader
  in
• production of lychees, bananas, pond fish,
  sugar cane
• Special Economic Zones
•  Geographic proximity to Hong Kong
• Cultural ties to overseas Chinese investors

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China
Study Area Pearl River Delta
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30 December 1995 TM 432
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1
2
6
3 March 1996 TM 432
10 December 1988 TM 432
Land-Use Change Map
water
natural vegetation
agriculture
urban
natural to urban
agriculture to urban
5 km
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10 December 1988 TM 432 3 March 1996 TM 432
Land-Use Change Map
water
agriculture
water to ag
ag to urban
5 km
natural vegetation
urban
natural to urban
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10 December 1988 TM 432 3 March
1996 TM 432
Land-Use Change Map
water
natural vegetation
agriculture
urban
agriculture to water
natural to urban
agriculture to urban
5 km
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Official Estimates vs. Satellite-Derived
Estimatesof Agricultural Land
Seto, K.C., R.K. Kaufmann, and C.E. Woodcock.
2000. Agricultural land conversion in southern
China. Nature 406 121.
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Land Use and Land Use Change1988 -1996

• Made in conjunction with NASA Goddard Space
  Flight Center

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1988 - 1996 Real GDP Growth
25 km
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1988 - 1996 Percent Land-Use Change of Counties
High 17 - 23 Medium 14 - 15 Low 0 - 9
25 km
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Modeling Socioeconomic Drivers of LUC

• Yit ai bixit mit i 1,, N
• t 1,, T
• Dependent variables
• - agriculture?urban
• - natural vegetation/water?urban
• Examples of independent variables
• - GDP
• - Demography (m/f/rural/urban)
• - Gross output value in industry agriculture
• - Wages by sector

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Drivers of Land-Use Change
Agriculture to Urban -0.11
-5.0 1.50 Relative land productivity
1.97 - 3.97 Ag labor productivity
-4.58 1.24 Investment in capital
construction 2.74 0.03 Average wage
5.98 Natural to Urban 0.028
3.13 6.53Relative land
productivity 3.55 - 1.39 Relative
labor productivity -3.37
2.85Investment in capital construction
3.27
Seto, K.C. and R.K. Kaufmann, In press, Modeling
the drivers of urban land-use change in the Pearl
River Delta, China Integrating remote sensing
with socioeconomic data. Land Economics
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Evaluation of Results
Panel cointegration--variables share the
stochastic trend Hendry forecast
test--Regression results stable over space and
time Morans I--No spatial autocorrelation Gra
nger causality--Some evidence that RHS
variables Granger cause land use change no
evidence for opposite effect
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Results
 Successful mapping of land-use change with high
accuracy (93.5) Amount of developed land
has increase by 319 between 1988 and 1996
Developed new method to evaluate change in series
of images using time series techniques
Identified and quantified major drivers of
urbanization