Tereza Cavazos

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Title
Intro
CICESE and UABC Participation in NAME
NAME Working Group Puerto Vallarta,
Mexico November 2003
Dept. of Physical Oceanography
Tereza Cavazos
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Oceanographic Comp
MW Douglas - NSSL AS Mascarenhas - UABC MF Lavin
CICESE, Ens. R Castro - UABC E Beier CICESE,
La Paz D Mitchell - DRI P Guest - NPS D Ivanova -
DRI
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SST_clim Sat
JPL AVHRR Pathfinder Global 9 Km SST Climatology
HYPOTHESIS Northward advance of the monsoon
seems to be related to the poleward progression
of the 26oC isotherm on the eastern side of the
GC
http//podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/climatology
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Corr_SST Model

• Observations
• TSW at the entrance of the GC ? Max in May-Jun
• Castro et al. 2000
• - Castro 2001
• Mascarenhas et al. 2003

September
June to September monthly climatology of currents
(cms-1) and temperature (oC) in the 25-50 m layer
of the POCM-4C model.
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CorrModel
Modeling the circulation and heat fluxes in the
GC (G. Marinone A. Parés)
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QuickScat
Surface Wind Climatology Using QuikScat (G.
Marinone A. Parés)
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Objective
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Cruises
Proposed NAME Oceanographic Cruises

• Observing stations along the blue lines - CTD
  every 10 km and down to 1000m - Atmospheric
  soundings 4/day
• Continuous meteorological, ADCP and SST data
  will be collected throughout the cruises
• The coastal meteorological stations and
  ADCPMicroCAT moorings will be deployed at both
  sides of the GC
• Large dots possible deployment sites for
  surface satellite-tracked drifters

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AtmosComp
Objective 1 Determine characteristics of
convective phenomena - GOES satellite imagery -
Surface and upper-air observations - Mesoscale
model simulations (MM5)
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LF2
Objective 2 Study landfall tracks in Baja
California
- Large-scale conditions and dynamic
mechanisms - Changes in structure due to storm
interaction with the peninsula - Determine
patterns of wind/rainfall distribution to
identify high-risk areas
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Land-Sfc
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Objectives
Objectives

• Extend retrospective LDAS data set
• to cover Tiers 1, 2 and 3 for 50 yrs

• Using the derived LDAS, undertake
• predictability studies to investigate the
• role of land-surface feedbacks in the
• monsoon region

Current soil moisture data (LDAS 1950-97)
Derived from a variable infiltration capacity
(VIC) model with 1/8º resolution (Maurer et al.
2002).


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Hypothesis
Winter Precipitation-monsoon rainfall feedback
hypothesis
Higher (lower) winter precipitation spring
snowpack
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Study area
Precipitation Regions
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Winter Precip
Wet Monsoon
Dry Monsoon
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Moisture
Soil moisture anomalies persist from spring until
June
What is the feedback to the atmosphere ?
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SWE_Ts
Correlation May-Jun SWE and Surface temperature
(Ts) (Negative relationship)
Correlation June Ts vs July Precipitation
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Wet modes
Heterogeneous SVD JAS Z500 vs JAS Precipitation
?
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SST
Heterogeneous SVD JFM SST vs JAS Precipitation
Negative PDO ? Dry monsoon
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Z500
SVD Z500 (AMJ) PPT (JAS)
DRY
WET
JAS Pan NWMex AZ
Mode 1 Z500 (AMJ)
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Conclusions
Conclusions
Atmospheric connection Winter SSTan and Spring
Z500 circulation
Especially During Extreme Years