MONSOON EXPERIMENT IN SOUTH AMERICA (MESA)

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MONSOON EXPERIMENT IN SOUTH AMERICA (MESA)

• An internationally coordinated, joint CLIVAR
  GEWEX program aimed at providing
• a better understanding of the South American
  monsoon system and its variability,
• a better understanding of the role of that system
  in the global water cycle
• improved observational data sets, and
• improved simulation and prediction of the monsoon
  and regional water resources.

Carolina Vera Univ. of Buenos Aires MESA SWG
Chair
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MESA ORGANIZATION BY 2004
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SALLJ Science goal To understand the role of the
South American low-level jet in moisture and
energy exchange between the tropics and
extratropics and related aspects of regional
hydrology, climate and climate variability

• SALLJEX Objectives
• Diurnal variations of the SALLJ
• Detailed description of the 3-dimensional
  structure of the SALLJ
• The relationship between MCCs and the SALLJ
• Description of the heat low over the Chaco and NW
  Argentina

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PLATIN 2004 Activities
The CLIVAR-GEWEX PLATIN SSG La Plata Basin is a
climate-hydrology system with components that are
potentially predictable with useful skill from
seasons in advance, and whose variability has
important impacts on human activities. PLATIN
is intended to advance in the understanding of
those components. GEF PROJECT LPB CSE
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MESA NEW ORGANIZATION

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MESA Scientific Working Group
Carolina Vera, Univ of Buenos Aires, Argentina (Chair)
Tercio Ambrizzi,  Univ. de São Paulo, Brazil
E. Hugo Berbery, Univ of Maryland, USA
Leila Vespoli de Carvalho, Univ. de São Paulo, Brazil
Alice Grimm, Univ Federal de Paraná, Brazil
Vern Kousky, NCEP/NOAA, USA
Brant Liebmann, Climate Diagnostics Center, NOAA, USA
Julia Nogues-Paegle, Univ of Utah, USA
José Marengo, CPTEC, Brazil
Ricardo Matano, Oregon State Univ. USA
Carlos Nobre, CPTEC, Brazil
Celeste Saulo, Univ of Buenos Aires, Argentina
Anji Seth, IRI, USA
Rafael Terra, Univ de la República, Uruguay
Ed Zipser, Univ of Utah, USA
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MESA IMPLEMENTATION
HYPOTHESIS The SAMS provides a physical basis
for determining the degree of predictability on
short- and long timescales over the region.

• MESA PRIORITY RESEARCH
• AREAS (PRA)
• Better understanding and
• simulation of
• diurnal and mesoscale processes
• (PRA-I)
• intraseasonal variability
• (PRA-II)
• interannual and longer time
• variability (including ACC issues)
• (PRA-III)
• monsoon evolution and
• variability (PRAs-I, II, III).

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MESA scientific issues discussed in VPM7
Baltimore meeting

• A better undestanding and improved simulation is
  expected on
• Diurnal cycle and seasonal evolution of the SAMS
• 3-dimensional description of the low-circulation
  east of the Andes.
• Mesoscale convective processes
• Role of aerosols from biomass burning in SAMS
• Dynamics of the SA see-saw pattern
• ITCZ-SACZ interaction
• Influence of MJO on SAMS
• Relative roles of internal vs forced
  low-frequency variability
• Land surface forcing Impacts of land use change
• Role of remote and local SST South Atlantic
• Global response to SAMS forcing
• Sources and limits of predictability on SAMS
  region

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Additional MESA modeling issues discussed in VPM7
Baltimore meeting

• Model simulation improvements are needed in
  reproducing
• the seasonal cycle of SAMS
• Diurnal Cycle of circulation and precipitation
• Monsoon onset
• Mean and variability of the SACZ.

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Additional MESA modeling issues

• To what extent do model systematic errors affect
  seasonal predictability in the region?
• Why do models have deficiencies in reproducing
  the SACZ? Missing coupled A-O mechanisms in the
  AGCMs?
• Will seasonal predictability change as a function
  of land cover changes?
• Can soil moisture memory help for seasonal
  predictions for South America? Need to improve
  soil moisture obs.
• Dealing with the complexities of orography.
  Higher resolution models and/or dowscaling with
  regional models?
• Atlantic SST forcing (i) understanding tropical
  versus extratropical contributions.
• How can intraseasonal variability in the SAMS can
  be improved in the models?Can instraseasonal
  oscillations be a source of short term climatic
  predictability?
• At the end, can we expect that model improvements
  and observational techniques will improve
  predictability in regions such the highly
  populated and economically important one in SE
  South America?
• - Better seasonal climate predictions, more
  accurate projections of climate change scenarios
  for the future?

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MESA modeling activities defined in VPM7

• 2004
• Impact of improved soil moisture initializations
  on precipitation simulation
• Impact of improved initial conditions enhanced by
  SALLJEX data
• Data Assimilation including SALLJEX data
• 2005
• Intraseasonal variability during SALLJEX period.
• Seasonal mean representation of the SALLJEX
  period.
• SALLJEX data assimilation in the CDAS analysis
  (and GDAS?)
• 2006

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1st MESA SWG Meeting

• Wednesday 9th afternoon
• Session 1 Review of the scientific basis for
  MESA
• Session 1aPRA-1 Diurnal and Mesoscale
  Variability in the SAMS region
• Thursday 10th, morning
• Session 1b PRA-2 Intraseasonal variability in
  the SAMS region
• Thursday 10th, afternoon
• Session 1c PRA-3 Interannual and longer-time
  variability in the SAMS region.
• Friday 11th, morning
• Session 2Additional MESA Modeling
• Session 3MESA Applications. PLATIN
• Friday 11th, afternoon
• Session 4Enhanced observation activities Field
  campaigns in MESA
• MESA SWG Executive Session

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1st MESA SWG Meeting

• Moderators and rapporteurs of the plenary
  sessions
• Session 1a PRA-1 Diurnal and Mesoscale
  Variability in the SAMS region
• Moderator Ed Zipser, Rapporteur Rafael Terra
• Session 1b PRA-2 Intraseasonal variability in
  the SAMS region
• Moderator Julia Nogues-Paegle, rapporteur Leila
  Carvalho
• Session 1c PRA-3 Interannual and longer-time
  variability (including ACC) in the SAMS region.
• Moderator P. Silva Dias, Rapporteur A. Grimm
• Session 2 Additional MESA modeling issues
• Moderator I. Cavalcanti, Rapporteur Anji Seth
• Session 4 Enhanced observation activities
  Field campaigns in MESA
• Moderator H. Berbery, Rapporteur C. Vera

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1st MESA SWG Meeting

• Plenary sessions
• Brief summary of the session by the moderator
• Discussion of the main scientific questions to be
  addressed in each of the PRAs
• Discussion of the diagnostic, modeling, and field
  campaign activities needed to address them

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• VAMOS A TRABAJAR!
• LETS START TO WORK!