Supporting Agility and Discipline When Preparing for and Responding to Extreme Events ISCRAM 2005 Jo

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Supporting Agility and Discipline When
Preparing for and Responding to Extreme
Events ISCRAM 2005John R. Harrald,
Ph.D.Director, Institute for Crisis, Disaster,
and Risk ManagementThe George Washington
UniversityApril 18, 2005
The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
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Source Joseph Barbera, M.D.
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http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/images/hurr-floy
d-19990915-2018utc-14cl.jpg
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Ground Zero 2001 New York, NY Source Nelson
Morse
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Attributes of a Catastrophic Incident
The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
A catastrophic incident results in large number
of casualties and/or displaced persons, possibly
in the tens of thousands. A catastrophic incident
may occur with little or no warning. Some
incidents, such as rapid disease outbreaks, may
be well underway before detection. A catastrophic
incident has unique dimensions/characteristics
requiring that response plans/strategies be
flexible enough to effectively address emerging
needs and requirements. A detailed and credible
common operating picture may not be available for
24 to 48 hours (or longer) after the incident.
As a result, response activities must begin
without the benefit of a detailed or complete
situation and critical needs assessment.
Source National Response Plan Catastrophic
Incident Annex
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Attributes of a Catastrophic Incident
The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
The incident may cause significant disruption of
the areas critical infrastructure, such as
energy, transportation, telecommunications, and
and public health and medical systems. The
response capabilities and resources of the local
jurisdiction (to include mutual aid from
surrounding jurisdictions and response support
from the State) may be insufficient and quickly
overwhelmed. Local emergency personnel who
normally respond to incidents may be among those
affected and unable to perform their duties.
Large scale evacuations, organized or self
directed, may occur. The health-related
implications of an incident aggravate attempts to
implement a coordinated evacuation management
strategy.
Source National Response Plan Catastrophic
Incident Annex
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DEMANDS ON RESPONSE AND RECOVERY SYSTEM
Response-Based Demands
Agent-based Demands Warning Pre-impact
Preparations Search Rescue Care of Injured
Dead Welfare Needs Restoration of Essential
Services Protection against Continuing
Threat Community Order
Communication Continuing
Assessment of Situation Coordination
Exercise
of Authority
Mobilization Utilization of Resources
Source Quarantelli (Adapted graphic)
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Stages of a Disaster ResponseOrganizational
Size Vs. Time

Demobilization
Production
Integration
Performing
Reaction Mobilization
Size
Preparation and Prevention
Transition
Norming
4
Storming / Forming
Time Post-Event
Pre-Event
Crisis Event
Figure 2
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Stages of a Disaster ResponseActual Output Vs.
Time
Demand
Production
Demobilization
Performing
Transition
Reaction Mobilization
Integration
Preparation and Mitigation
Output/Demand
Storming / Forming
Norming
Time
Actual
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The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORSPREPAREDNESS PHASE

• Detection, mobilization, and immediate response
• plans and capability based on realistic
  scenarios
• Mobilization capacity is adequate to meet needs
• Adequate resources available for first response
  in
• high threat areas
• Inter-organizational coordination is
  pre-planned,
• stakeholders are identified

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The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORSREACTION AND
MOBILIZATION PHASE

• Situational awareness obtained and shared across
• distributed decision network
• Resources in place are capable of initial life
  and
• safety response
• Resources are mobilized according to pre planned
• process and organizational structure
• Resource mobilization based on accurate
  estimate
• of demand for services and support.

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The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORSINTEGRATION PHASE

• Mobilized resources rapidly and efficiently
  integrated
• into pre planned response organization(s)
• Coordinated multi-organization, networked
  response
• system capable of distributed decision making
  created
• Ability to manage the collection, synthesis, and
• analysis of information established
• Ability to effectively communicate internally
  and
• externally established
• Ability to monitor and evaluate results of
  actions and
• decisions established

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The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORSPRODUCTION PHASE

• Organizational productivity and resources are
• supported and sustained
• Organizational adaptability is maintained
• Productivity metrics are developed and monitored
• Response and recovery goals, established,
• communicated, and supported

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The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORSTRANSITION/DEMOBILIZATIO
NPHASE

• Continuing requirements for recovery are
• identified
• Plans for transition to local support of
  continuing
• needs is developed and followed
• External resources de-mobilized and accounted
  for
• according to established process
• Resources provided to support economic and
  social
• recovery
• Organizational learning is accomplished

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The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
Premise Response organizations must possess
agility and discipline in order to respond to
extreme events Information technology must
support both
Agility able to move quickly and easily, deft
and active Discipline self control or orderly
conduct, acceptance of or submission to authority
and control.
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The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
Discipline is the foundation for any successful
endeavor. Discipline creates well organized
memories, history, and experience. Agility is
the counterpart of discipline. Where discipline
ingrains and strengthens, Agility releases and
invents.Agility applies memory and history to
adjust to new environments to react and
adapt,to take advantage of unexpected
opportunities
Barry Boehm and Richard Turner Balancing
Agility and Discipline,
A Guide for the
Perplexed
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The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
Creative Rigid
Balanced/ Adaptive Bureaucratic/ Procedural
Ad Hoc/ Reactive Dysfunctional
Agility
Unstructured Well Structured Undefine
d Well Defined
Discipline
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The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
The U.S. Post 9-11 Experience
Emphasis on disciplinecreating a true national
system (federal, tribal, state and local) to
prepare for, respond to and recover from extreme
events. Motivation and focus has been terrorism,
but approach is all hazards. Focus on
defining policy, structure, process.
Will creativity and agility suffer?
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The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
The International Approach

• Focus is on agility, ability to react.
• Limited coordinating authorities
• and mechanisms
• Minimal common structures
• and processes.

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The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
Implications for Information Technology
Highly structured organizations and reactive
organizations have different needs and
capabilities. Can technology assist in
producing a balanced approach, preserving
necessary discipline while promoting agility?
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U.S. DISASTER PLANS2001 Agent DrivenAgency
Specific
Presidential Declared Disasters Federal
Response Plan (FRP) FEMA (Natural Disaster,
Terrorist attack) FBI Environmental
Disaster (Oil/hazardous substance release)
National Contingency Plan (NCP) EPA USCG
Nuclear/Radiological release Federal
Radiological Emergency FEMA Response Plan
(FREP) DOE Wildfire National
Interagency Incident USDA Management
System (NIIMS) (USFS) Biohazard Medical
Support Plan DHHS
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The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
Creative Rigid
Balanced/ Adaptive Bureaucratic/ Procedur
al
Ad Hoc/ Reactive Dysfunctional
Agility
U.S.
Unstructured Well Structured Undefine
d Well Defined
Discipline
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Results
Directives
Initiatives
Strategy
National Incident Management System (NIMS)
Homeland Security Presidential Directive 5
Common Approach To National Incident Management
Prevention Protection Response Recovery Prepared
ness
National Response Plan (NRP)
National Infrastructure Protection Plan
Homeland Security Presidential Directive 7
National Strategy for Homeland Security
National Preparedness Goal
Capabilities Based Planning Tools
Homeland Security Presidential Directive 8
National Preparedness Guidance
Source Interim National Preparedness Goal
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NIMS Framework
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Relationship NIMS and NRP
NIMS aligns command, control, organization
structure, terminology, communication protocols,
resources, resource-typing to synchronize all
levels of response
National Incident Management System (NIMS)
Used for all events
NRP integrates applies Federal resources,
knowledge, abilities before, during, after
an incident
Incident
Resources
Local Response
Knowledge
State Response or Support
Abilities
Federal Response or Support
National Response Plan (NRP)
Activated Only forIncidents of National
Significance
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NRP The Full Spectrum of Incident Management
Post-Incident
Incident
Pre-Incident
Prevention
Preparedness
Response
Recovery
Mitigation
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A Systems Approach
A system is a collection of inter-related
components that work together to accomplish a
common goal. Where is the system boundary?
Formal response organizations
Affiliated Volunteers
Incident management system
Spontaneous Volunteers
Community members
Media
Victims
Source Lauren Fernandez
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Other US Government Depts -DOT -DOE -USACE -DOD -D
HHS -DOJ -CIA -EPA
Information Flow for National Incident
IIMG
White House HS Council DHS Secretary
JIC/ICPACC
ARC DOC
HSOC
NRCC EPR/FEMA
SIOC
NRC
RRCC
State EOC
NICC
TSA OC
NCTC
JFO (PFO/FCO) (IAIP liaison)
DHHS OC
Other DHS -ODP -OSLGCP -PSO
Local EOC
ISACS
DHS IAIP (PCII)
SCCs GCCs
NORTHCOM
J.R. Harrald, Ph.D. GWU ICDRM March 2005
Information nodes in Washington DC (ovals
indicate 24/7 operations centers)
Information nodes outside Of Washington
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The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
Creative Rigid
Balanced/ Adaptive Bureaucratic/ Procedural
Ad Hoc/ Reactive Dysfunctional
Agility
X (INTL)
Unstructured Well Structured Undefine
d Well Defined
Discipline
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• International Players in Emergency Management

UN Agencies
IFRC / ICRC
Foreign Govts
Intl NGOs
National Govt
Natl NGOs
Local Govt
Media
Donors
Private Sector
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• International Players in Emergency Management

UN Agencies
IFRC / ICRC
Foreign Govts
Military / Civilian
Intl NGOs
National Govt
MSF MERLIN, etc
Military / Civilian
Natl NGOs
Local Govt
National Red Cross
??
Media
Donors
Private Sector
Governments Foundations Individuals
International National Fringe
Suppliers / Vendors
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• International Players in Emergency Management

UN Agencies IFRC/ICRC Does OCHA coordinate
humanitarian assistance?
Courtesy UN Human Settlements Program (UN
Habitat DMP) 2003
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• International Players in Emergency Management

UN Agencies
IFRC / ICRC
Foreign Govts
Military / Civilian
Intl NGOs
National Govt
OCHA
MSF MERLIN, etc
Military / Civilian
Natl NGOs
Local Govt
National Red Cross
??
Media
Donors
Private Sector
Governments Foundations Individuals
Foreign National
Suppliers / Vendors
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UN Humanitarian Organizations

• OCHA Office for the Coordination of Human
  Affairs
• UNHCR UN High Commissioner for Refugees
• WFP World Food Program
• UNICEF UN Childrens Fund
• FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
• WHO World Health Organization
• UNHCHR UN High Commissioner for Human Rights
• IOM International Organization for Migration
• UNFPA United Nations Population Fund
• UNDP United Nations Development Program
• PAHO Pan American Health Organization

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Some Non Government Disaster Organizations

• The International Committee of the Red Cross
• The International Federation of Red Cross/Red
  Crescent Societies
• Oxfam
• Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors without
  Borders)
• CARE
• Volunteers in Technical Assistance (VITA)
• Church World Service
• Salvation Army World Service
• World Relief
• International Rescue Committee
• Relief International

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The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
10 Critical Information Technology Issues

• Situational awareness how to obtain, sustain
  common
• operating picture in a distributed decision
• environment under conditions of uncertainty.
• Information overload how to filter information
  and
• still get the right information to the right
  people at
• the right time, how to minimize degradation
  of
• decision process due to information overload.
• Real time decision support how to provide
  robust,
• and applicable models, ensure data and system
• availability where and when needed.
• Supporting response management operations how
  
• to coordinate and track activities and
  resources in
• multiple organizations and operations centers
  during
• extremely large and complex operations.

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The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
10 Critical Information Technology Issues (cont)

• Communicating to community, victims, the media
  
• how to ensure that warning systems warn, that
  crisis
• communications communicate
• Communication interoperability and security
  how to
• provide technology and systems that are open
  enough
• to connect all necessary parties while
  controlling access
• Utilizing and controlling ad hoc
  communications
• Cell phones, satellite phone, text messaging,
  internet

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The George Washington University Institute for
Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management
10 Critical Information Technology Issues (cont)

• Transitioning from routine operations How to
  ensure
• that systems used for routine operations are
  scalable
• and can be transitioned to meet needs of
  large events
• Identifying and tracking victims and workers.
• How to facilitate the process of identifying
  the survivors
• and the dead, notifying appropriate
  authorities,
• tracking victims, controlling access, tracking
  workers
• Supporting the transition to recovery. How to
• facilitate the identification and
  communication of
• recovery goals and requirements.

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EXTERNAL TECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT
STRUCTURE
MANAGEMENT PROCESS
STRATEGY
TECHNOLOGY
INIDIVIDUALS ROLES
EXTERNAL SOCIOECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
Organization Boundary
Culture
THE ORGANIZATION AS A SET OF RELATIONSHIPS IN
EQUILIBRIUM (FROM MORTON, 1991)
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NRP Structure
Base Plan
Describes the domestic incident management
structures and processes
Appendixes
Include acronyms, definitions, authorities, and a
compendium of national interagency plans
Describe the structures and responsibilities for
coordinating incident resource support
Emergency Support Function Annexes
Provide guidance for the functional processes and
administrative requirements
Support Annexes
Address contingency or hazard situations
requiring specialized application of the NRP
Incident Annexes
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Emergency Support Functions

• ESF 1 - Transportation
• ESF 2 - Communications
• ESF 3 - Public Works and Engineering
• ESF 4 - Firefighting
• ESF 5 - Emergency Management
• ESF 6 - Mass Care, Housing, and Human Services
• ESF 7 - Resource Support
• ESF 8 - Public Health and Medical Services
• ESF 9 - Urban Search and Rescue
• ESF 10 - Oil and Hazardous Materials Response
• ESF 11 - Agriculture and Natural Resources
• ESF 12 - Energy
• ESF 13 - Public Safety and Security
• ESF 14 - Long-Term Community Recovery and
  Mitigation
• ESF 15 - External Affairs

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Support Annexes

• Financial Management
• International Coordination
• Logistics Management
• Private-Sector Coordination
• Public Affairs
• Science and Technology
• Tribal Relations
• Volunteer and Donations Management
• Worker Safety and Health

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Incident Annexes

• Biological Incident
• Catastrophic Incident
• Cyber Incident
• Food and Agriculture Incident
• Nuclear/Radiological Incident
• Oil and Hazardous Materials Incident
• Terrorism Incident Law Enforcement and
  Investigation

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• Intensity Timeline

Level of Activity
Disaster-Resistant Development
Mitigation Preparedness
Relief
Recovery
Status Quo
Disaster Timeline
Event
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A Risk Management Perspective
Risk Probability X Consequence
Vulnerability what is the likelihood of the
scenario affecting built/social/ economic systems
Threat/Hazard What is the likelihood of
occurrence of a scenario?
Immediate Consequences What are the impacts if
the scenario occurs?
Delayed Consequences
Extreme Event
I. Domain II. Prevention III.Preparation
IV. Immediate Sustained V.
Recovery Awareness
Response Response
Interventions that minimize cascading impacts
and facilitate long term recovery.
Interventions that decrease the threat or
hazard
Interventions that decrease the chances that
damage and disruption will occur
Interventions that increase the capability
and/or capacity to respond
Interventions that contain the event minimize
loss of life, injuries, health impacts,
property loss.
Interventions that restore functionality of
critical systems and meet social Needs.
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• NCP

Tech Hazard Federal EPA/CG/NRC/DOE State Env
Agencies Local Fire, health
The Need for Coordination
Law Enforcement Federal FBI/ATF/CG State
Police Local Police
Radiological Hazard Federal NRC/DOE State Env
Agencies Local Fire, health

• FBI
• NBC CP

Regulatory culture
Natural/ Human induced Disaster
Law enforcement culture
Engineering Culture

• FRERP

DOD/Military Director, Military Support National
Guard Bureau
First Responder Culture
Military Culture
EmergencyResponse Federal FEMA State
Emergency Service Local Police, Fire, Rescue

• FRP

Medical Culture

• DOD CIPP

Bio Hazard Medical Response Federal CDC State
Public Health Local Fire, Rescue

• HHS MSP