Climate Change and Nature Conservation in Britain and Ireland The MONARCH Project

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Climate ChangeandNature Conservation
inBritain and IrelandThe MONARCH Project
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MONARCH

• FUNDERS
• English Nature
• Countryside Council for Wales
• Environment Agency
• Environment and Heritage Service (Northern
  Ireland)
• Forestry Commission
• Joint Nature Conservation Committee
• National Parks and Wildlife (Republic of Ireland)
• National Trust
• Royal Society for the Protection Birds
• Scottish Executive
• Scottish Natural Heritage
• UK Climate Impacts Programme
• Welsh Assembly
• Woodland Trust

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MONARCH

• RESEARCH PARTNERS
• Environmental Change Institute, University of
  Oxford
• ADAS
• British Trust for Ornithology
• CABI Bioscience

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Defining zones of climatic similarity Cluster
analysis (on 7 bio-climatic factors)
21 clusters
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Changes in mean annual temperature
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Habitat and species selection

• Selected habitats
• Drought-prone acid grassland
• Lowland calcareous grassland
• Upland hay meadows
• Tall herb ledge communities
• Beech woodland
• Upland oak woodland

• Montane heath
• Wet heath
• Raised bog
• Blanket bog
• Coastal saltmarsh
• Coastal dune slacks

• Species selection protocol
• Primarily plant species, but few higher order
  species
• Dominant and/or structurally important
• Sensitive to climate change
• Priority (BAP) species

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Terrestrial environments Schematic of the
SPECIES model
MONARCH project
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SPECIES model Results for current climate
(1961-90) Willow tit
Observed distribution
Simulated distribution
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SPECIES model Results for current climate
(1961-90) Willow tit
Observed distribution
Simulated distributions
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SPECIES model Results for future climate Willow
tit
2020 low scenario
2050 high scenario
2020 high scenario
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Fagus sylvatica (Beech)
a)
b)

• 2020s Low
• 2020s High
• 2050s Low
• 2050s High

d)
c)
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(a)

Large heath Coenonympha tullia
(a)
(b) (c)

• Simulated distribution
• 2020s Low
• 2020s High
• 2050s Low
• 2050s High

(d) (e)
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Summary of habitat/species vulnerability

• Terrestrial and freshwater species
• Species with northerly distributions generally
  contract (e.g. mountain ringlet butterfly,
  capercaillie, globe flower)
• Species with southern distributions generally
  expand (e.g. great burnet, sea purslane, reed
  warbler)

• Terrestrial and freshwater habitats
• Montane heath (all species lose suitable climate
  space)
• Upland hay meadows, upland oak woodland, beech
  woodland and pine woodland (changed species
  composition as several species or dominants lose
  climate space)
• Blanket/raised bogs, coastal dune slacks and
  salt marsh (mixed response)
• Wet heath and lowland calcareous grassland (low
  sensitivity)

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MONARCH 2Research Objectives

• Module 1
• To develop models to define potential species
  distributions at a local scale (eg NNR, Natural
  Area, National Park)
• To develop models of species dispersal
  capabilities and integrate with potential changes
  in distributions
• To integrate above models with predictions for
  future land use/land cover changes
• To consider implications of species dispersal and
  redistribution for functioning of ecosystems
• Module 2
• To apply above methodologies to four case study
  areas selected from participating countries.

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SHORT-TERM ACTIONS

• Raise awareness of the significance of climate
  change for biodiversity
• Promote the need to accommodate climate change
  impacts into the Biodiversity Action Plan process
  and the development of conservation objectives
• Provide advice and guidance to help develop more
  flexible approaches to conservation management
• Press for regulatory and policy changes which
  will allow the effects of climate change to be
  adequately reflected in statutory commitments
• Seek an increase in the level of support for
  species and habitat management under
  agri-environment schemes