4M14 7 Sessions Engineering for Sustainable Development

1
4M14 - 7 Sessions Engineering for Sustainable
Development

• Session 2
• Energy and Climate Change
• Charles Ainger
• V P for Engineering Design for Sustainable
  Development, CUED
• With Guest Dr. Chris Hope
• Judge Institute for Management Studies, U of C

2
The smoking gun on climate change
CO2 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii
3
Frying the Earth?
4
What is Energy?

• The ability of matter or radiation to do work
• People dont demand energy - they ask for these
  services
• heating / cooling / lighting - buildings
• mobility / carrying capacity - transport
• making things power - industry
• IT/ communication / entertainment - all

In providing these services through our past and
present energy technologies, we have started a
process that may threaten our existence.
5
If Development gave global equality - in
Affluence and energy use

• By 2050 we would need 8.5 Earths to supply as
  much energy per capita as the UK uses now...
• And energy use drives global warming...

So...wed better look hard at the way we use and
provide energy
6
2. Energy and Climate Change

• Global energy availability and use
• sources and availability fossil fuels, and
  variations
• uses - categories and variations
• Impacts of energy production and use
• local habitat and community damage and
  pollution
• global - climate change (Dr Chris Hope)
• Efficiency and Renewables - technologies, and
  options
• Sustainable Energy barriers and solutions

7
Energy and Climate Change

• Global energy availability and use
• sources and availability fossil fuels, and
  variations
• uses - categories and variations
• Impacts of energy production and use
• local habitat and community damage and
  pollution
• global - climate change (Dr Chris Hope)
• Efficiency and Renewables - technologies, and
  options
• Sustainable Energy barriers and solutions

8
Global energy production 2000
(Source BP Amoco Statistical Review of World
Energy 2001)
9
UK Energy production by source- major changes
10
Growth in Global Energy Use
11
Forecast of Global Energy Demand

Kyoto
12
World primary energy use
Data Source BP Statistical Review of World
Energy 2001 and UN Population Division )
13
Primary energy use trends
 
Data Source BP Statistical Review of World
Energy 2001
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BUT Rest of the World includes China and
India...

• Nothing is more calculated to send a shiver of
  unease through an environmentally concerned
  audience than to conjure up a world in which over
  a billion Chinese or Indians enjoy a Western
  family lifestyle a car (or two), a fridge,
  central heating (or air conditioning), a
  dish-washer, an automatic washing machine - and
  2.4 children. Vincent Cable, MP

15
UK Energy Demand by User
16
Passenger Transport by mode 1952 - 1999
Freight Transport by Mode 1953 - 99
300
800
700
250
600
200
Air - very small
500
Air
Billion Tonne Kilometres
Billion Passenger Kilometres
Pipeline
150
400
300
100
Water
200
Cars, vans and taxis
Road
Pedal cycles
50
100
Motorcycles
Buses and Coaches
Rail
Rail
0
0
1954
1952
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
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In one year, the av. British household generates
this CO2

• We all do it.
• The average UK households energy use produces
  25 of UKs CO2 emissions..
• (www.saveenergy.co.uk)

(Guardian, Earth Aug 2002 from Int. Energy
Agency, and www.risingtide.org.uk)
18
 
But of course we dont all use the same global
inequality in domestic use
1 US 2 UK 3 Hong Kong 5 Chileans 6 Iraqis 10
Chinese 12 Zambians 16 Indians 23 Nepalese 28
Ethiopians 50 Bangladeshis
Data Source World Development Indicators, 2001
19
Energy and Climate Change

• Global energy availability and use
• sources and availability fossil fuels, and
  variations
• uses - categories and variations
• Impacts of energy production and use
• local habitat and community damage and
  pollution
• global - climate change (Dr Chris Hope)
• Efficiency and Renewables - technologies, and
  options
• Sustainable Energy barriers and solutions

20
Impacts - Acid Rain and Air Pollution
(Source Phillips Atlas of the World
Millennium Edition)
21
Impacts - Water Pollution
(Source Phillips Atlas of the World
Millennium Edition)
22
Habitats
23
Complex impacts energy and insecurity?
24
Climate change - the record...
Temperature and atmospheric CO2 correlation over
the last 400,000 years (Vostok ice cores)
(Source Royal Commission on Environmental
Pollution (22nd Report), 2000)
25
Contribution of Greenhouse Gases to Climate Change
26
Sources and Lifetimes of Greenhouse Gases

• Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 100 years
• Methane 10 years
• Nitrous Oxide 150 years
• Chlorofluorocarbons 100 years
• (Source Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
  Research)

27
Summary there is plenty of uncertainty and room
for debate - BUT

• The scientific debate about whether climate
  change is a problem is over.
• The debate now is
• What kind of a problem?
• How bad a problem?
• What should we do about it?
• When?
• How much will it cost?
• Who should pay?

28
One group who are paying - insurance claims due
to weather claims
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IPCC predictions - Dr. Chris Hope
R
e
a
s
o
n
s

f
o
r

C
o
n
c
e
r
n
Lar
ge
Negative
Net
Higher
Risks to
Increase
for Most
Negative
Many
Regions
in
All
Metrics
Positive
or
Negative
Market
Impacts
Majority
Negative
of People
for Some
Adversely
V
ery
Risks to
Increase
Regions
Af
fected
Low
Some
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
V
V
I Risks to Unique and threatened systems
IVAggregate Impacts II
Risks from Extreme Climate Events
V Risks from Future Large-scale III
Distribution of Impacts
discontinuities
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Brainstorming - how should we share out the
global commons?

• The atmosphere, and CO2 into it, is the classic
  example of a global commons so
• which is the fairest way of sharing it out,
  among the people of the Earth?
• starting from where we are now, with unequal use
  of it - what are the possible ways of getting to
  that fair share?

31
International Debt - who owes who?

• Financial debt
• the countries and banks of the north are owed
  200 Billion, by the developing and intermediate
  countries
• those countries pay Billion in interest every
  year - much more than aid flows the other way
  BUT..

• Ecological debt?
• The norths 30? of world population uses 70?
  of the Earths atmospheric capacity
• What is this worth as an ecological debt - the
  other way?
• What would be the equivalent of paying
  interest on this?

32
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Energy and Climate Change

• Global energy availability and use
• sources and availability fossil fuels, and
  variations
• uses - categories and variations
• Impacts of energy production and use
• local habitat and community damage and
  pollution
• global - climate change (Dr Chris Hope)
• Efficiency and Renewables - technologies, and
  options
• Sustainable Energy barriers and solutions

34
So - can we improve energy resources Technology
- by a Factor 4 - or 10?

• Overall energy use
• The whole economy is less than 10 as
  energy-efficient as the laws of physics permit
• (Natural Capitalism,1999)
• Efficiency - 3 elements (at least)
• Renewables
• Hydro
• Wind
• Solar
• Nuclear
• Biomass
• Geothermal, tidal .

35
Efficiency 1 System efficiency - fat pipes,
small pumps
Water Pumps Life-Cycle Costing

• one industrial pumping example (Natural
  Capitalism)
• - 90 saving on conventional thin pipe approach
• similar approach for buildings - system
  efficiency for design/structure/energy services
  as a whole

36
Efficiency 2 Fuel conversion/distribution - from
the energy source to the motor
(Natural Capitalism, 1999, Ch.6)
coal to actual work 90 losses
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Hydropower - dont give up on it!
Engineers responsibility follow WCD 2000
Guide.
1. Gaining public acceptance 2. Comprehensive
options assessment 3. Addressing existing
dams 4. Sustaining rivers and livelihoods 5.
Recognising entitlements and sharing
benefits 6. Ensuring compliance 7. Sharing rivers
for peace, development and security

• renewable energy source, when constructed - can
  still be appropriate
• potential for 10-15 power retrofit on
  existing dams - M E only
• large, mini and micro applications

38
Wind energy- rising star

• huge resource, although low conversion
  efficiency so far - research increasing
• regional variations (best where solar not so
  good?)
• visual impact - NIMBY - clash with communities
• offshore costs more, but less visual impact
• can be harnessed directly - see Errol lagoons

39
PV Solar - large and small

• major research efforts - cost is all investment
  - dropping by a factor of 10 over 1993 - 2003
  (IPPR)
• best decentralised - down to roof level
• best if integrated with building design and
  architecture - eg. glazing
• can be very low tech for developing countries

Munich conference centre generates 1MW
40
Nuclear - costly, risky and centralised, but a
big investment...

• lowest direct CO2 impact
• highest waste risk - still no real solution
• hugely centralised and high tech for operation
• local visual and environmental impact

41
Wave (and tidal) power - many ideas and
enthusiasts..

• large potential, varied locations
• wave favours medium size locations
• lots of different engineering solutions on trial

42
Biomass - varied and flexible

• as wood burning, has been widely used
  historically - but environmental impact
• many varied fuels - wood, droppings, sludge gas,
  MSW, etc - part solution to waste problem
• air environmental impacts - to be watched
• can be small and decentralised

43
Trends in energy costs - by source
Nuclear
Wind
(Power to the People IPPR, 2001)
Coal
Gas
44
Comparison of the various renewables
45
Carbon Emissions for Fuel Sources
(Grams C per kWh)
46
So far, lower carbon intensities have related
to richer societies
(Source Economist, August 2002)
47
Sustainable energy gathers momentum...

• Wind - costs falling dramatically growth
  estimates 39 for 2001 30,000 employees already
  in German industry Denmark targets 50 of energy
  by 2030 market leader Vestas triples value in 2
  years.
• Solar - energy giants BP and Shell lead the way
  costs beginning to drop success stories for in
  PVs integrated with glass/cladding.
• Fuel cells - fuelled by gas or hydrogen Ballard
  of Canada to be the next Microsoft? - 250,000
  fuel cells per year. Will fundamentally alter the
  way electricity networks function.
• Micro gas turbines CHP doubles the
  fundamental conversion inefficiencies of gas
  many on industrial/commercial scale domestic
  scale promised by 2002/3 - 5 - 12 million
  installations by 2020?
• ABB changes corporate strategy - major player in
  large power re-focusing on decentralised energy

48
Energy and Climate Change

• Global energy availability and use
• sources and availability fossil fuels, and
  variations
• uses - categories and variations
• Impacts of energy production and use
• local habitat and community damage and
  pollution
• global - climate change (Dr Chris Hope)
• Renewable energy - technologies, and options
• Sustainable Energy barriers and solutions

49
The new energy technologies are available - now
tackle the barriers

• Externalities
• Corporate control
• Decentralisation

• Standards
• Regulation

• Prices
• Taxes/levies
• Incentives

50
Corporate control decentralisation

• But
• utility commercial structures hinder it - no
  incentive to sell less, nor buy back
• practical aspects of power distribution
  networks, charges, regulations dont help
• current large, privatised energy companies want
  to continue to control the key solution
  technologies (CO2 sequestration) - so are happy
  for change to take a long time...

I could fit solar PV roof tiles, and generate
100 of my electricity - for 10 - 20k per house
51
Prices, taxes/levies and Incentives

• Pricing the externalities
• Climate change levies - including helping CHP?
• Direct carbon taxes
• Capital allowances for high energy efficiency
  plant
• Car and petrol taxation New markets, fair
  prices
• Renewables network access pricing
• Carbon trading schemes

52
Standards regulation local global

• Global (governments)
• Kyoto Marrakesh - when will USA learn?
• Well need 60, not 20, reductions in CO2
  (Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution)
• Local
• Change building and construction standards NOW
• Introduce more information less paperwork

UK CO2 Emissions 1990 -2020?
53
Global regulation - very hard the Ozone - CFCs
precedent

• CFCs and Ozone
• The hoped - for impact of CFC control on the
  ozone layer
• 26 years from 1st science to control
• then 100 years to end of impact

Stratospheric CL2 concentration in ppb
(Source Beyond the Limits)
54
Rapid reaction to global controls on CFCs CO2 is
much harder?
(Source Tomorrows Markets, WBCSD, 2002)
55
Micropower Vision 2020- a very different energy
system from today?

• Far less energy used for heat, light and other
  energy services, by employing much higher
  standards of efficiency for new buildings and
  high penetration of micro CHP in the existing
  stock.
• Energy supply companies are now energy service
  companies and distribution networks facilitate
  electricity markets with a mix of local energy
  supplies, demand side measures and energy storage
  options.
• Millions of homes and offices have their own
  electricity generators, such as fuel cells or
  solar roofs.
• Up to 30 per cent of electricity supplies come
  from renewables, some decentralised, some
  offshore. Input from nuclear and coal have
  declined gas remains the most popular fuel for
  heat and electricity. Many renewable technologies
  are now cost competitive, so no risk of over
  dependence on gas.
• Hydrogen is emerging as another form of energy
  carrier.
• (Power to the People - IPPR,
  2001)

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Energy and Climate Change- an engineering
starting point?

• target reducing energy use by a factor of 3 to 4
• challenge all new schemes - no net extra CO2
  release
• no fossil fuel schemes, if not with CHP
• de-centralise facilitate smaller renewable
  suppliers and CHP
• integrate building structures with energy
  sources and use
• fertile ground for innovation and R D
• set higher targets each year

The stone age didnt end because we ran out of
stones - the oil age wont end because we ran out
of oil (CEO, Shell)
57
Feedback, please, in Groups - High Level
Questions...

• Q1. How should we share out the global commons
  - the atmosphere?
• Q2. What would be the simplest ways for
  Governments to encourage renewables?
• Q3. What is the biggest impact difference you
  could make, as an individual?

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Ending - Coursework 2

• Coursework Assignment 2 Energy Strategy
• Will be issued NOW
• Return to me end of Session 4 - 5 November
• Marked, back to you end of Session 6 - 19
  November

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Coursework Assignment 2 Education Centre Energy
Strategy, Scotland

• A new sustainable development education centre is
  to be built on the island of Inch Kenneth, off
  the West coast of Scotland. You are working for
  the consultant engineer, who wins the contract to
  design and build the centre and develop a total
  energy strategy for it. You have to work with the
  architect, and for the client.
• The centre will be used all year round, housing
  up to 20 people at a time. It will include a
  boathouse, a drying room for wet kit,
  outbuildings for pigs and goats, and an
  administration office with two PCs, a fax machine
  and a telephone. It must also incorporate
  refrigeration, cooking and washing facilities.
• Estimate the energy demand of the building and
  develop an energy strategy to meet this demand.
  There is no national grid electricity supply on
  the island at present, but the area has a wealth
  of other resources.
• Any assumptions that you make regarding the
  location of the centre, the energy demand and the
  scale and nature of resources must be clearly
  stated.
• Your answer should take the form of a summary
  report to the client and will require detailed
  descriptions of the methods of meeting the
  demand. Since design of some elements of the
  building will be necessary features these should
  be justified for the architect and illustrated
  with sketches and diagrams in the report.
• The report should be no longer than six sides of
  A4, including diagrams, in a style acceptable to
  the discerning client. It must be received at
  the Cambridge University Engineering Department
  Centre for Sustainable Development no later than
  5pm on 5 November 2002
• If you have any problems with this assignment,
  including meeting the deadline, please contact
  Heather Cruickshank at hjc34_at_eng.cam.ac.uk as
  soon as possible.

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Coursework Assignment 2 Education Centre Energy
Strategy, Scotland
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Next Session 3 - 29th October Water

• Global water availability and use
• Impact - environmental, social, economic
• Solutions - Sustainable water?
• Barriers and Challenges
• Are you coming?

WATER IS GOLD
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EXTRAS
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The Greenhouse effect
Source New Scientist
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Fuel conversion/distribution efficiency - from
the energy source to the motor
user energy
primary energy source
energy services
efficient energy
(Power to the People - IPPR, 2001)
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Delivering a 21st Century Energy System

• IPPR Report Power to the People 2001 - propose
  for Government
• 1. Change energy policy objectives economic
  efficiency affordable access environmental
  sustainability security and diversity of supply.
• 2. Remove existing barriers NETA market changes
  distribution network charges for smaller,
  regional, intermittent suppliers
• 3. Promote decentralised electricity pilot
  micropower zones to uncover and try out
  solutions on regulatory, cost and technical
  issues - and apply them to solve fuel poverty
  areas, too.
• 4. Stimulate demand for clean energy Accept the
  targets of 30 renewables by 2020 (FoF) and 60
  CO2 reduction by 2050 (RCEP) increase Climate
  Levy, exempt CHP introduce emissions trading
  tax-incentivise lower domestic energy use price
  roof-produced electricity at same rate as
  buy-in price draw up a hydrogen strategy..

66
Efficiency 2 Pump/motor efficiency
Economic Refurbishment - average 10 - 20 better
System Optimisation 16 Saving
(Source - AEMS Ltd.)
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Efficiency types eg. pumping - uses 20 of
electricity world-wide

• 1. System efficiency - fat pipes, small pumps
  (savings possible 10 - 90 on standard practice)
• 2. Pump/motor efficiency - maximum useful use of
  electrical power applied (nearly all pumps on
  average are running 10 - 20 less efficient than
  optimum)
• 3. Fuel conversion/distribution efficiency - from
  the generation source to the motor (for instance,
  coal to use 90 losses
• ...with present technologies

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Wind - but what about visual impact?