Local Standards or Informative Priors in Applied Forensic Anthropology?

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Local Standards or Informative Priors in Applied
Forensic Anthropology?

• Lyle W. Konigsberg, Ph.D.
• University of Tennessee
• Knoxville, Tennessee

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95 Ranges (Katz Suchey)
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Problems With Using Percentiles of Age

• ) Percentiles are estimates that may require
  standard errors.
• ) Percentiles give an incomplete description.
• ) Percentiles depend both on the biology of
  aging and on the demographic composition of the
  reference sample.

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Phase I
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Phase I
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Phase I
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Phase I
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Phases V VI
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Phases V VI
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Reference Samples
Sample N
Korean War (KIA) 232
L.A. Forensic 737
Korean War (POW) 126
Terry Anatomical 422
Kosovo (M F) 226

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Korean War Dead Transitions
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Cumulative Probabilities
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Universal Weights (Likelihood)
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Phase V VI
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Phase V VI
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Phase V VI
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Transition I/II
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Transition II/III
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Transition III/IV
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Transition IV/V
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Phase I Posterior
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Phase II Posterior
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Phase III Posterior
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Phase IV Posterior
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Phase V VI Posterior
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Survivorships
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Survivorships
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Survivorships
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Survivorships
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Prior Age-at-Death Distributions
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Phase I Posterior
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Phase I Posterior
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Phase I Posterior
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Phase II Posterior
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Phase II Posterior
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Phase II Posterior
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Phase III Posterior
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Phase III Posterior
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Phase III Posterior
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Phase IV Posterior
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Phase IV Posterior
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Phase IV Posterior
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Phase V VI Posterior
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Phase V VI Posterior
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Phase V VI Posterior
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Conclusions

• ) It is possible for Lyle to give a paper
  showing absolutely no equations!
• ) For large representative reference samples,
  use survivorship within each phase.

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Conclusions, cont.

• ) For Bayesian analyses use an appropriate
  prior.

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Age-at-Death Distribution
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Conclusions, cont.

• ) If appropriate reference material is not
  available, it may be possible to use information
  from large generic samples.

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Acknowledgements

• Dr. Nicholas Herrmann
• Dr. David Hunt
• Erin Kimmerle
• Dr. Daniel Wescott
• Dr. Judy Suchey
• National Science Foundation (SBR-9727386)